RSS Feed MenuA Republican senator runs for reelection in a mountain west state, a traditional GOP stronghold. The incumbent, in his mid-70s, seeks reelection after two decades of service in the Senate. Boasting a solidly conservative voting history, but also a more practical, bipartisan streak, the GOP incumbent hopes his overall record will carry him to another victory.
But his primary campaign is troubled. Local Republican activists are angry with Washington, Congress especially. They are angry with the senator about TARP. They are angry with the senator about his recent bipartisan gestures. They are angry with the senator about lax border security. They are just plain angry.
Their disaffection boils over on GOP primary day, delivering a shocking upset of the incumbent. When the news breaks, the GOP convention attendees rejoice, hooting and hollering, waving “Don’t Tread On Me” flags and chanting “He’s gone! He’s gone!” Later that night, the elderly senator, virtually in tears, speaks with the media and calls the current American political climate “toxic.”
Is this the recent story of Robert Bennett in Utah – or the coming fate of John McCain in Arizona?
McCain is still in danger of ending up like the Utah senator: swiftly ejected from public office, scorned by the local Republicans that had supported him for so long. But he is also politically savvy enough have already begun working to prevent Arizona from becoming like Utah.
At the moment, McCain holds an uncertain lead. His favorability ratings have plummeted across the board. In one poll, McCain leads Hayworth by 26 points. In another, McCain leads Hayworth by 6 points. In still another poll, McCain leads his opponent by 11 points. That is to say, it is difficult for McCain to know how well he is actually doing. Hayworth could surge at any time.
This is due to McCain’s grassroots troubles. In past years, GOP activists in Arizona, presented with no serious alternative, have begrudgingly supported McCain. One poll illustrates this point: Hayworth leads McCain by 8 points among the self-described conservatives polled in Arizona. McCain, on the other hand, holds a whopping 45 points advantage among moderates. But who tends to vote in Republican primaries, conservatives or moderates?
Unlike Bennett, McCain will not be caught off guard. He is more than aware of his conservative dilemma and has been working aggressively to solve it.
First, McCain has refocused on Arizona. After years of eyeing the presidency and focusing mostly on Washington, McCain is now Mr. Arizona. Most notably, McCain has been vocal about border security, publicly supporting the much-maligned Arizona immigration law. In a non-election year, McCain may have conceivably criticized the law.
Secondly, McCain has become a born again party man. After spending years cultivating an image of independence and unpredictability (a.k.a. the McCain “maverick” cliché), the Arizona senator has publicly backtracked on the label. He has also touted endorsements from movement conservatives like Grover Norquist and Tea Party celebrities like Sarah Palin and Scott Brown.
Finally, McCain is winning the money race. He has secured millions while Hayworth has struggled to inch into the seven figures.
All this so far has helped McCain maintain a lead. But come August, McCain may be the next Bennett.
easton // May 14, 2010 at 2:04 pm
one critical difference I have not seen anyone mention is that Bennett was ousted at the pre-primary convention, who knows how he would have fared if it had been a truly open primary. I am pretty positive McCain will win in the primary and the general, Hayworth is just a gibbon.
As to health care, the US pays 16% of its GDP on Health care at worst outcomes the UHC 9% Japan. We simply could not stay on the course we were on, but hopefully this is just a first step towards getting away from employer based health care toward employee based payroll tax funded health care choices.
Slide // May 14, 2010 at 2:14 pm
Poor, sad McCain. He is embarrassing and degrading himself. It is actually painful to watch. And to think, I once thought of him as someone I could vote for.
Carney // May 14, 2010 at 2:53 pm
otto, CBO is required by law to take the assumptions and promises in a plan it is given at face value, no matter how transparently implausible or insincere. Garbage in, garbage out. For all your deafening self-praise, you are easily suckered by the oldest, hoariest Washington tricks.
gmckee1985 // May 14, 2010 at 3:26 pm
McCain is a pandering loser who gave his party an embarassing defeat due to his populist pandering.
Too bad his only competition is Hayworth, otherwise he’d lose.
Unforunately, he’ll probably win pretty easily, and we’ll be stuck with his inconsistent mavericking for 6 more years.
gmckee1985 // May 14, 2010 at 3:50 pm
That said, I’ll take McCain over Hayworth. I think the media is overplaying how close the race is.
McCain may be hard to figure out, but at least he’s sane, and a safe bet in a general election.
Hayworth is probably more in line with my views, but I don’t trust him. Eventually he’ll say something very stupid.
anniemargret // May 14, 2010 at 9:00 pm
I supported McCain when I was an Independent. But the day he said he was ‘proud’ to have Sarah Palin as a running mate as the day I realized he was a crass and opportunistic politician. That he put her second in line to the Presidency was the nail in the coffin for me.
And I hated his disingenuous about torture – especially coming from a man who was tortured himself. He is not principled.
ottovbvs // May 14, 2010 at 9:26 pm
Carney // May 14, 2010 at 2:53 pm
“otto, CBO is required by law to take the assumptions and promises in a plan it is given at face value, no matter how transparently implausible or insincere. Garbage in, garbage out. For all your deafening self-praise, you are easily suckered by the oldest, hoariest Washington tricks.”
……..Carney…….all budgets are based on assumptions……it’s the way that businesses work…….it’s not a pefect process but it’s the only one we’ve got and for better or worse the CBO is the NON PARTISAN body of congress charged with scoring the budget……they did and they said it was funded…… so instead of making a load of totally unsubstantiated assertions which are basically worthless Republican talking points which are of no interest or value to anyone, I ask you again who have you got that say’s it’s unfunded
ottovbvs // May 14, 2010 at 9:29 pm
gmckee1985 // May 14, 2010 at 3:26 pm
gmckee1985 // May 14, 2010 at 3:50 pm
……so according to a conservative Republican, both Republican candidates are liars, panderers and general wankers…..great
TerryF98 // May 15, 2010 at 3:27 pm
Looks like the times are a changing.
“Americans want Democrats to control Congress after this fall’s elections, a shift from April, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll released Saturday. But the margin is thin and there’s a flashing yellow light for incumbents of both parties: Only about a third want their own lawmakers re-elected.
The tenuous 45 percent to 40 percent preference for a Democratic Congress reverses the finding a month ago on the same question: 44 percent for Republicans and 41 percent for Democrats. The new readout came as the economy continued showing signs of improvement and the tumultuous battle over the health care law that President Barack Obama finally signed in March faded into the background.
“To the extent that Democrats can focus on job creation rather than health care, they tend to do better,” said Jack Pitney, a political scientist at California’s Claremont McKenna College.
A party of “Hell No” is losing ground.
Compared with the last AP-GfK poll in April, the survey showed Republicans losing some support among married women, a key component of many GOP victories. Democrats picked up ground among young and rural voters.
“I’m a new Democrat,” said Harley Smithson, 51, of Baltimore, who said he had recently switched from the GOP. “I want to be with a party that’s for something instead of against everything.”
Rabiner // May 15, 2010 at 7:46 pm
I can at least respect Bennett for attempting to pass a bi-partisan health care bill and not reversing his entire political record to win a primary. McCain has been a disgrace in his change of stances from immigration reform to even not considering himself a maverick.
Slide // May 16, 2010 at 10:29 am
TerryF98 I saw that poll too and felt a glimmer of hope that November won’t be quite as bad as all the pundits are gleefully prognosticating. The economy, by all measures, seems to be bouncing back a lot stronger than many expected. Job creation, while a lagging indicator, has turned around and we will see job creation every month from now to the election. Substantial job creation. It has been calculated that if the pace of the first four months of this year continues, Obama will have created more jobs in one year than the Bush Administration had created in eight years. Isn’t that amazing?
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/nj_20100515_5237.php?mrefid=site_search
The stimulus will be seen as a success. TARP might actually turn a profit. GM is again in the black due to the government’s intervention. HCR will not be seen as the socialized death panel abomination that it has been demonized as by the right as people realize little will be changed with their coverage. We will get some very popular financial reform to control banks which are universally hated by the American public. And the Gulf spill and its aftermath will dominate headlines for months and that can’t help the “drill baby drill” crowd or those that continue to say that we don’t need any government regulations and/or oversight. And what will the Pubs have to offer? Just say no?
Oh, the Dems will still lose seats as historically always happens but I do think things are going to look a lot brighter in November than they do right now for the prospect of limiting those loses.
tequilamockingbird // May 17, 2010 at 11:00 am
Surely Arizonans know that this pandering old fool is flipflopping on everything he once professed — don’t they?
tequilamockingbird // May 17, 2010 at 11:03 am
On the other hand, Hayworth looks as though he could be even worse — come on, Democrats!