RSS Feed MenuRepublicans counting on Obamacare’s unpopularity to deliver them a win in November seem likely to face disappointment. An honest look at the package shows it’s masterfully designed to deliver a lot of meaningful favors to groups likely to reward Democrats at the polls in November. In particular, senior citizens and middle class families all get immediate benefits while the important costs and externalities resulting from the package won’t take place for some time. Democrats are right to think that people will like the package.
Let’s begin with the well-organized senior-citizen population. Seniors taking advantage of the Medicare drug benefit get an immediate and tangible handout thanks to Obamacare: $250 as a cash rebate to help pay drug costs. Combined with some pharmaceutical industry price cuts and an ongoing generic drug price war that Wal-Mart sparked, seniors’ already falling out-of-pocket drug costs will fall even more before November. And at least some people will vote for Democrats as a result.
Middle class families get even more. In fact, the plan’s new rules relating to children’s coverage and lifetime maximum benefits will instantly alleviate many anxieties that most middle-class families feel about healthcare. By letting children stay on their parents’ healthcare plans until age 26, hardly anyone with children will have to worry about his or her new college graduate getting healthcare. Rules that forbid healthcare providers from excluding children with pre-existing conditions will impact only a few but they will produce a lot of heart-warming stories about children whose families no longer have to worry about potentially bankrupting medical costs. The immediate elimination of lifetime coverage maximums, likewise, means that almost no seriously ill person with employer-provided family health insurance will have to worry about exhausting benefits. Finally, new high risk pools — a temporary measure until exchanges begin operating in 2014 — will make coverage a lot easier to get for sick people with decent incomes.
Republicans can’t legitimately call for the repeal of any of this: nearly all of the immediate changes are consensus measures that they incorporated into their own healthcare plans. Even better for Democrats, very few will have short term costs. Higher taxes, the potential of waiting lists, and some employers’ decision to drop coverage and the like won’t happen until 2014 or after. The one immediate tax from the plan — a 10 percent levy on indoor sun-tanning — seems unlikely to cause much public anger since, obviously, the tanning industry and its customers didn’t mount an effective campaign against its imposition.
None of this means that Obamacare is good policy. The program is still a big government takeover of the healthcare industry that may diminish the quality of healthcare. I’ll benefit but others may lose. The short term changes, furthermore, seem calculated to get votes by catering to get them from people who have anxiety about medical costs rather than helping those — lower-income single people, small business owners, laid-off workers in their 50s — who have the fewest options under the current system.
Politically, however, the Democrats are right. Once people understand the plan, many Americans will like it.
agentprovocateur // Mar 29, 2010 at 1:26 pm
We now have a prediction that the GOP will win big in November based on the passage of HCR. Note, this is from the same amazing soothsayer who told us the week before the legislation passed that there was no way that it would ever get by the supposedly clever Republicans and their tactics. I guess that didn’t turn out to well, huh? Oh, and trashing violent, nasty people who claim to speak for Jesus is not the same as trashing Jesus. Spread the word.
SpartacusIsNotDead // Mar 29, 2010 at 3:47 pm
Sinz wrote: “The best argument against it is that costs are going to rise sharply, and premiums are going to rise sharply . . . Has RomneyCare controlled costs? NO. My own BlueCross premium, which is already the highest BlueCross premium in the nation, was just raised by 44%.”
There are significant differences between RomneyCare and ObamaCare regarding cost controls. Many people on FF have posted links to the cost control measures in HCR. As usual, you’ve chosen to ignore factst that don’t fit your ideological prison.
Moreover, the rise in your own premiums are not the result of RomneyCare. Premiums are going up all over the country. California does not have RomneyCare and, unlike MA, CA allows insurers to deny coverage due to pre-existing conditions. Yet, many people in CA are getting premium increases of up to 40%. Sorry, but you’ll have to find another scapegoat.
Another inconvenient fact for you is that the CBO determined that premiums under ObamaCare will be about 15% lower than they would be without reform.
I know you fashion yourself as being analytical, but it doesn’t seem as if you ever analyze any facts.
sinz54 // Mar 29, 2010 at 4:16 pm
SpartacusIsNotDead:
The CBO’s estimates are based on cuts to Medicare Advantage and cuts to the “doc fix” going into effect on schedule. They will not be. Trust me.
The problem with CBO estimates is that they assume that the projected schedule of cuts and spending goes ahead as planned. They can’t consider the possibility that a new Congress or a new Administration will diddle with those plans at some point in the future. But you and I know that’s going to happen.
MA’s health insurance premiums were already the highest in the nation before the latest premium increase went into effect. So we continue to outpace CA premiums by a wide margin. Here in MA, a single person with no dependents besides himself pays over $8,000 a year. What’s it like in CA?
I’m well aware of things in ObamaCare that were included in hopes that might, just might, have a positive impact on costs. One of them, I had suggested myself: Automating hospital record keeping. But there isn’t a single costing model, AFAIK, that shows that they will. They’re all experimental, and nobody knows whether they will work.
I had suggested automating hospital record keeping regardless of whether ObamaCare passed. But I couldn’t point to any reliable studies. All I had to go on was anecdotal evidence.
ottovbvs // Mar 29, 2010 at 4:40 pm
SpartacusIsNotDead // Mar 29, 2010 at 3:47 pm
“I know you fashion yourself as being analytical, but it doesn’t seem as if you ever analyze any facts.”
…..Sinz while not a complete loon, and actually possessing a fair grasp of the facts, is basically married to a set of beliefs which he has to justify with often completely irrational explanations…..he came up with a complete beaut yesterday when he suggested the decline of the British empire was due to their need to fund social expenditures which left nothing over the three ocean fleet, vast army and other requirements that would have been necessary to hold onto India and the rest of the empire…….no matter that if they hadn’t spent a cent on social programs that there still wouldn’t have been sufficient funds for such programs…..and it’s the same with his pretzelesque logic on healthcare……will the CBO forecast hold…..who knows…..what I do know is that this is not all set in amber….the admin will adjust course when it has to…..For example I don’t think for a moment that Sinz’s greatest dread the public option (for which he constantly but inadvertently makes a case) has gone away
rbottoms // Mar 29, 2010 at 4:40 pm
After I became disabled thanks to congestive heart failure some years ago, I tried to find something to do that would allow me to remain active. Because I had a knowledge of history and a gift for telling stories, I was asked to help with a living history program at Turkey Creek Nature Preserve.
I was informed this morning that the park must “distance itself” from me. These orders came from Taylor’s higher ups at BSC, so I don’t blame him. He obviously hated doing it.
So, I’m fired from a job I never took a dime for.
It was perfectly predictable and I am actually amazed the collectivist academics took so long.
Still, it hurts.
It hurts a lot.
Wah. All he did was advocate for people to smash in the windows of Democratic office holders and rail about a coming civil war. Who would have thought that would have adverse consequences?
SpartacusIsNotDead // Mar 29, 2010 at 6:43 pm
Sinz wrote: “The CBO’s estimates are based on cuts to Medicare Advantage and cuts to the “doc fix” going into effect on schedule. They will not be. Trust me . . . The problem with CBO estimates is that they assume that the projected schedule of cuts and spending goes ahead as planned.”
You are wrong. The CBO’s deficit estimates are based on cuts to MA (but not the doc fix). The CBO’s estimates regarding lower premiums, however, are not based on these things.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/107xx/doc10781/11-30-Premiums.pdf
SpartacusIsNotDead // Mar 29, 2010 at 6:51 pm
ottovbvs wrote: “Sinz while not a complete loon, and actually possessing a fair grasp of the facts, is basically married to a set of beliefs which he has to justify with often completely irrational explanations . . . ”
Ok, not a complete loon. But what kind of person remains married to a set of beliefs that can be justified only with irrational explanations?
The fact that he’s not a complete loon says more about how badly the standard for rational thought and intellectual honesty has been lowered by conservatives than it says about his capacity to form rational conclusions based on observable facts. His intellectual contributions here are significantly superior to most of his fellow conservatives’ contributions.
ottovbvs // Mar 29, 2010 at 7:19 pm
SpartacusIsNotDead // Mar 29, 2010 at 6:51 pm
“The fact that he’s not a complete loon says more about how badly the standard for rational thought and intellectual honesty has been lowered by conservatives than it says about his capacity to form rational conclusions based on observable facts. His intellectual contributions here are significantly superior to most of his fellow conservatives’ contributions.”
…..basically I agree which as I said in another piece I find him much more unsettling than the loonies….but to be fair we all rationalize sometimes, but in my book a vote for McCain/Palin said a lot about both the powerful pull of tribalism on an individual and on that individual’s ability to make sound qualitative judgements.
Independent // Mar 29, 2010 at 10:31 pm
Arthur Greene, who is probably one of DavidF’s interns from his former AEI days –given the lack of depth and self-serving nature of the earlier post– misses the boat, trees and forest.
Republicans aren’t planning on riding to E-victory on Obama sCare alone… oh sure, the back room deals, the underhanded bribing, the highly partisan nature, the sell outs, the arm twisting and wheeling-dealing will be an issue for voters because it underscores the Culture of Corruption that permeates the Democrat Party and the Chicago Thug & Mug Machine.
If you think, Arthur, that voters are going to be thrilled with Obama sCare come E-day 2010, then you need to get some fresh air. There are a hundred deep cuts that will shatter the myth you’re proposing here: for instance, just today, many Forutne 500 and US Chamber members came out to explain they have to write-down over $14b in losses attributable to Obama sCare’s increased taxation that goes into effect immediately for them –and that means decreased earnings, loss of benefits for some seniors, higher taxes, bad news for this “great” One True Choice of Obama sCare that was supposed to “fix” everything and is now showing a bevy of untoward consequences the Obami never factored in.
But untoward consequences, a major one leaked each week, will offset any gain the Democrats can make in spinning the massive plan as some benefit boon for America. Smooth talking snakeoil’s salesmen all worry about the day that someone actually tries their potion –because that’s the end of sales. Proof is truth.
And that’s just with Obama sCare. We’ve got the Obama-driven bankruptcy of Soc Security to talk endlessly about. We’ve got skyrocketing foreclosures to talk about and Obama’s failure to craft even a moderate plan to address the problem. we’ve got an endless jobless faked recovery. We’ve got a metrosexual prez living large in Air Force One and spending political capital where it makes no positive effect… like Virginia’s governor race, NJ governor’s race, Mass’s Senate race… well, you get the point.
We’ve got Iran ready to start construction on two MORE nuke enrichment facilities and the Obami running around trying to just find Brazil on the UN map to speak with someone there about sanctions or something… it’s like keystone cops have taken over foreign affairs.
Wasn’t that why LyinJoeBiden was on the ticket –he was Mr Foreign Affairs supposedly. Now, all he does is stand up comedy in the East Room dropping the F-bomb for the prezzie.
And on and on it goes.
Riding Obama sCare to Victory should include some assessment of all the untoward consequences those Democrat stooges pressed without a gameplan.
But do that, we’d need some balance on FF.
And some honesty from the diarists like Arthur Greene. Come out, come out whoever you are.
balconesfault // Mar 29, 2010 at 10:59 pm
We’ve got a metrosexual prez living large in Air Force One
Meow!
Independent // Mar 29, 2010 at 11:08 pm
Sorry B’fault, nothing catlike in our home. We’re dog guys. Two big yellow labs named “Truth” and “Honor”. They go with our family, everywhere.
SFTor1 // Mar 30, 2010 at 1:32 am
Many conservatives could experience relief with some inexpensive over-the-counter heartburn medicine. Independent, off to Walgreens you go.
Once you stop burping acid Obama won’t look like the devil anymore.
Go Dog Go! // Mar 30, 2010 at 5:36 am
You folks can complain all you want about Obama, and you can call him all the bad names in the book. But until you start studying the polling data and accept that his accomplishments are gaining steam, the party will never fix what’s wrong:
A total strategic reorganization is needed. The lurch to the right has come at the expense of conservative intellectualism, the concrete policy ideas that once underlaid an increasingly empty ideology that the fringe touts. Without that centrist foundation, and the solutions and pragmatism they bring to the table, the broader non-wingnut base of voters will not join up.
If the current guise of the GOP continues, with social conservatives driving the young away and with minority voters becoming the driving force, the Republican Party will be rudderless and adrift for a generation.
Independent // Mar 30, 2010 at 10:33 am
Not to over-emphasize reality for the “1 inch deep, 1 mile wide” FrumBot crew, but you were all crowing on Monday how the Obami was now showing improved polling… he was up, as some here tried hard to claim, at least 8 points!
Your line: America loves Obama sCare and our Messiah. Republicans are doomed!
Even FF fake-named “Arthur Greene” jumped the shark and tried to sell the newest snake oil.
Guess what? Gallup says not so fast. In fact, three days after “All glory let loose from the Heavens” and NancyP’s Big Gavel crew marching up the steps of the Capitol, turns out that Americans still don’t like Obama sCare.
Obama Messiah’s polling has settled back down despite attempts to lecture America about its merits in front of hand-picked adoring Democrat crowds… and a jump to Afghanistan to do some Big Hugs Heal All diplomacy with ACORN’s greatest gift to Obama, Karzai the Corrupt… Obama’s numbers remain in the pits. He’s only 2 points away from his all time low in approval ratings.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/35162.html
“The most prominent political prognosticator who predicted a post-reform bump for Obama was President Bill Clinton – who told reporters last year that Obama would add 10 points to his approval rating “the minute health reform passed.”
But Obama’s approval in the Gallup daily tracking poll stands at 48 percent – near his all-time low of 46 percent in the three-day rolling average. Near the time of passage, Obama ticked up to 50 percent in the poll.
“People thought Obama might get a significant uptick,” said Frank Newport of the Gallup Poll. “Obama’s approval seems to have moved up a few points during and slightly after passage. Then it fell back down again.”
Ouch, the American voter can be so fickle. Or, maybe the Obami are 1 inch deep, 1 mile wide.
balconesfault // Mar 30, 2010 at 11:09 am
ACORN’s greatest gift to Obama, Karzai the Corrupt
Do you have some kind of random verbage generator that writes this stuff for you?
Independent // Mar 30, 2010 at 11:41 am
Just the truth, B’fault. ACORN should open an office in Kabul; afterall , it’s their kind of town and political environment.
Karzai the Corrupt and Obama Messiah can go worship in Mecca; two muslim peas in the same pod.
balconesfault // Mar 30, 2010 at 11:47 am
Confirmed.
Independent // Mar 30, 2010 at 11:53 am
“Riding Obama sCare to Victory” gets a statistical fact-check proof boost today –
According to Rasmussen:
“Less than a week after President Obama signed the health care reform bill into law, more voters than ever say he is governing like a partisan Democrat.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 56% of likely voters believe the president is governing like a partisan Democrat, up three points over the past month and the highest level measured since he took office in January 2009. ”
Damn, that’s gotta hurt the farLeft democrat FrumBots.
Plus, the news doesn’t get any better for the Team Selling Snake Oil FrumBots–
“One week after the House of Representatives passed the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, 54% of the nation’s likely voters still favor repealing the new law.”
Wait! With all that hyperdrive, cheering crowded media events of staged Democrats adoring the One True Choice?? How could that be… 54% in favor of repeal? That’s gotta be down from a higher, pre-passage number… it has to be!
Nope. “Those figures are virtually unchanged from last week.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/march_2010/health_care_law
Well, it’s all because of those loonie farRight Tea Partiers… no one is listening to them, right?
Nope. “In official Washington, some consider the Tea Party movement a fringe element in society, but voters across the nation feel closer to the Tea Party movement than they do to Congress.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of U.S. voters believe the average member of the Tea Party movement has a better understanding of the issues facing America today than the average member of Congress.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/march_2010/most_say_tea_party_has_better_understanding_of_issues_than_congress
Some days it doesn’t pay to get out of bed if you’re a FrumBot fighting reality at every turn.
Independent // Mar 30, 2010 at 11:56 am
B’fault, “confirmed”. I’m glad you can set aside the normal partisan blinders you employ here and over at the Daily Kos.
Thanks for the agreement –your confirmation shows you a better, more honest FrumBot than the echo-chambered pals you hang with. sarcasm off.
balconesfault // Mar 30, 2010 at 12:04 pm
B’fault, “confirmed”. I’m glad you can set aside the normal partisan blinders you employ here and over at the Daily Kos.
Simply confirmed that you’re a random comment generator.
Carry on, Independent-Bot!
Independent // Mar 30, 2010 at 1:42 pm
yeah, B’fault… the sarcasm button was turned off. I knew what you meant… ankle-biting as it may only be… it’s all you got left most days.
balconesfault // Mar 30, 2010 at 2:03 pm
ankle-biting as it may only be…
ACORN’s greatest gift to Obama, Karzai the Corrupt
lol – your lack of self-awareness never fails to amuse.
Tilting at Windmills: We Can’t Turn Back the Clock on HCR « Resolute Determination // Mar 30, 2010 at 3:16 pm
[...] of HCR’s negative consequences are deferred while its benefits are, often, immediate. As Arthur Green has written on FrumForum: Republicans counting on Obamacare’s unpopularity to deliver them a win [...]