Comments on: What Went Wrong in Iraq – The Definitive Account Part 1 http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1 Building a conservatism that can win again Sun, 14 Mar 2010 20:27:00 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: JJWFromME http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-2#comment-46035 JJWFromME Wed, 04 Feb 2009 15:49:09 +0000 #comment-46035 Blame it on the Iraqis and ignore our own poor, or even nonexistent, planning? As I said in the other thread that's what John Bolton proposed we do and I find that unconscionable: http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2007/04/paxman_vs_bolto.html Blame it on the Iraqis and ignore our own poor, or even nonexistent, planning? As I said in the other thread that’s what John Bolton proposed we do and I find that unconscionable:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2007/04/paxman_vs_bolto.html

]]> By: ireign http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-2#comment-49460 ireign Wed, 04 Feb 2009 15:28:22 +0000 #comment-49460 JJW, we could have had the planning possible but if we don't have leaders in Iraq and the Iraqi people's support to stem waives of violence, crime, looting, etc. than there is a limit to what US "planning" can do. For example, if Al-Sadr instead of running a militia killing more moderate clerics tried to work with the US we would have been in better. If Al-Sistani was more vocal and commanded more support, we would be in better shape. Our fundamental assumption that the majority of Iraqis were secular and pro-western was not true. That is an intelligence failure. Better planning would have helped but it would not have fundamentally altered a situation that was hurt by us being wrong regarding a fundamental assumption. JJW, we could have had the planning possible but if we don’t have leaders in Iraq and the Iraqi people’s support to stem waives of violence, crime, looting, etc. than there is a limit to what US “planning” can do.

For example, if Al-Sadr instead of running a militia killing more moderate clerics tried to work with the US we would have been in better. If Al-Sistani was more vocal and commanded more support, we would be in better shape.

Our fundamental assumption that the majority of Iraqis were secular and pro-western was not true. That is an intelligence failure. Better planning would have helped but it would not have fundamentally altered a situation that was hurt by us being wrong regarding a fundamental assumption.

]]> By: JJWFromME http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-2#comment-51471 JJWFromME Wed, 04 Feb 2009 14:37:31 +0000 #comment-51471 "The reality is its a war." Yes, but let's distinguish what happens on the battlefield from what happens during the planning. If the war plan was written in crayon, and the war proceeds as if it was written in crayon, is it wrong to look to the parties who ran the planning, and ask "what were you thinking?" In this case, there are tons of clues as to what they were thinking--as well as *not thinking* about. Not to have a public discussion (and yes, assign some blame) and to just say "bygones," would be a joke in a democracy such as ours. And as for Afghanistan being a mess, there are messes and then there are Messes: http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/11/deaths_in_iraq_1.php “The reality is its a war.” Yes, but let’s distinguish what happens on the battlefield from what happens during the planning. If the war plan was written in crayon, and the war proceeds as if it was written in crayon, is it wrong to look to the parties who ran the planning, and ask “what were you thinking?” In this case, there are tons of clues as to what they were thinking–as well as *not thinking* about. Not to have a public discussion (and yes, assign some blame) and to just say “bygones,” would be a joke in a democracy such as ours. And as for Afghanistan being a mess, there are messes and then there are Messes: http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/11/deaths_in_iraq_1.php

]]> By: ireign http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-2#comment-54434 ireign Wed, 04 Feb 2009 14:13:20 +0000 #comment-54434 By most accounts, we did a pretty good job in Afghanistan in the aftermath of Sept. 11 and the place is still a mess. By most accounts, we did a pretty good job in Afghanistan in the aftermath of Sept. 11 and the place is still a mess.

]]> By: ireign http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-2#comment-48238 ireign Wed, 04 Feb 2009 14:10:34 +0000 #comment-48238 The reality is its a war. You cannot accurately predict how a war will go. With the benefit of hindsight, of course there are things we could have done differently but I think overall its hard to make the claim that better planning would have make everything great. In general, our fundamental assumption that the shia were pro-American and that the shia and sunni would come together after we deposed Hussein was wrong. If the Iraqis truly wanted "democracy" and were willing to put aside sectarian differences, the war would have gone better. The reality is its a war. You cannot accurately predict how a war will go. With the benefit of hindsight, of course there are things we could have done differently but I think overall its hard to make the claim that better planning would have make everything great. In general, our fundamental assumption that the shia were pro-American and that the shia and sunni would come together after we deposed Hussein was wrong. If the Iraqis truly wanted “democracy” and were willing to put aside sectarian differences, the war would have gone better.

]]> By: Chekote http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-1#comment-48839 Chekote Wed, 04 Feb 2009 00:05:21 +0000 #comment-48839 sinz. The reality is that many people were inaccurate in their prediction regarding the Iraq War. I remember thousands of tents being set up in Jordan because "experts" predicted that millions of Iraqis would flee to Jordan. Never happened. There were predictions that it would take six months to topple Saddam and that at least 10,000 soldiers would be killed. Never happened. The problem was that nobody had good intelligence on Iraqi. Did the Bush administration make mistakes. Sure. And we should learn from it. However, I believe that Iraq has the opportunity to change the course the Middle East has been on. Also Reagan's retreat in Lebanon emboldened the jihadists. sinz. The reality is that many people were inaccurate in their prediction regarding the Iraq War. I remember thousands of tents being set up in Jordan because “experts” predicted that millions of Iraqis would flee to Jordan. Never happened. There were predictions that it would take six months to topple Saddam and that at least 10,000 soldiers would be killed. Never happened. The problem was that nobody had good intelligence on Iraqi. Did the Bush administration make mistakes. Sure. And we should learn from it. However, I believe that Iraq has the opportunity to change the course the Middle East has been on. Also Reagan’s retreat in Lebanon emboldened the jihadists.

]]> By: sinz54 http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-1#comment-48251 sinz54 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 23:22:00 +0000 #comment-48251 JJWfromME: Interestingly, the Kristol-type neoconservatives had dissented sharply from President Reagan's decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Lebanon after a terrorist attack killed 241 U.S. Marines there. These folks thought that Reagan should have ordered a full-scale invasion to restore order in Lebanon. If Reagan had done that, the U.S. would likely have walked right into a jihadist counterinsurgency war, and his presidency would have likely ended up just as much of a failure as George W. Bush's had. But Reagan kept his eye on the ball--dealing with the Cold War--and accepted the loss of the Marines without massive retaliation. JJWfromME: Interestingly, the Kristol-type neoconservatives had dissented sharply from President Reagan’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Lebanon after a terrorist attack killed 241 U.S. Marines there. These folks thought that Reagan should have ordered a full-scale invasion to restore order in Lebanon. If Reagan had done that, the U.S. would likely have walked right into a jihadist counterinsurgency war, and his presidency would have likely ended up just as much of a failure as George W. Bush’s had. But Reagan kept his eye on the ball–dealing with the Cold War–and accepted the loss of the Marines without massive retaliation.

]]> By: sinz54 http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-1#comment-54704 sinz54 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 23:18:35 +0000 #comment-54704 Chekote: Nothing is wrong with Iraqis having a chance at democracy--in principle. What was wrong was that the Bush Administration vastly underestimated the time and effort required. As a result, the American effort was too small for the task, and expectations were too high. The Iraqis were close to civil war at several points. Well, we Americans *did* get plunged into civil war--in 1860. From 1789, when we first won our independence from Britain, till 1865, when our Civil War ended, 76 years had elapsed. That's how long it took us to truly achieve a peaceful, harmonious "UNITED States." Now if Bush had reminded Americans of our own precedent, and suggested that building a stable, peaceful democracy in Iraq would likewise take a very long time, and probably couldn't be accomplished without much bloodshed, the American people and their representatives could have had an honest debate over whether it was worth the effort in American blood and treasure. Instead, ahead of time, the Bushies made it seem artificially quick and easy and almost painless--and America suffered when that proved not to be the case. Chekote: Nothing is wrong with Iraqis having a chance at democracy–in principle. What was wrong was that the Bush Administration vastly underestimated the time and effort required. As a result, the American effort was too small for the task, and expectations were too high. The Iraqis were close to civil war at several points. Well, we Americans *did* get plunged into civil war–in 1860. From 1789, when we first won our independence from Britain, till 1865, when our Civil War ended, 76 years had elapsed. That’s how long it took us to truly achieve a peaceful, harmonious “UNITED States.” Now if Bush had reminded Americans of our own precedent, and suggested that building a stable, peaceful democracy in Iraq would likewise take a very long time, and probably couldn’t be accomplished without much bloodshed, the American people and their representatives could have had an honest debate over whether it was worth the effort in American blood and treasure. Instead, ahead of time, the Bushies made it seem artificially quick and easy and almost painless–and America suffered when that proved not to be the case.

]]> By: JJWFromME http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-1#comment-51645 JJWFromME Tue, 03 Feb 2009 18:35:06 +0000 #comment-51645 By the way, I was for the operation in Afghanistan. I thought the CIA and special forces did a great job. But when I heard about Iraq, my first thought was, "this is crazy." My first thought was right. By the way, I was for the operation in Afghanistan. I thought the CIA and special forces did a great job. But when I heard about Iraq, my first thought was, “this is crazy.” My first thought was right.

]]> By: JJWFromME http://www.frumforum.com/what-went-wrong-in-iraq-the-definitive-account-part-1/comment-page-1#comment-45976 JJWFromME Tue, 03 Feb 2009 18:05:39 +0000 #comment-45976 OK, next North Korea? How about Sudan? Bill Kristol says all of the above: http://thinkprogress.org/colbert-42806/ (Sorry the transcript is a bit garbled, but you get the idea). There are a lot of things you can do to avoid invading, conquering and occupying a country in the middle of the middle east--a ridiculous idea on its face. And over trumped up charges too: http://policingwingnutwelfare.blogspot.com/2009/01/lots-of-evidence-no-wmd-and.html OK, next North Korea? How about Sudan? Bill Kristol says all of the above: http://thinkprogress.org/colbert-42806/ (Sorry the transcript is a bit garbled, but you get the idea). There are a lot of things you can do to avoid invading, conquering and occupying a country in the middle of the middle east–a ridiculous idea on its face. And over trumped up charges too: http://policingwingnutwelfare.blogspot.com/2009/01/lots-of-evidence-no-wmd-and.html

]]>