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According to Rasmussen Reports:
West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese continue to run a surprisingly close race in the state’s special Senate election to replace the late Robert Byrd.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in West Virginia shows Manchin with 50% support and Raese with 45%, when leaners are included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
The West Virginia race now moves from Leans Democratic to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings. Less than two weeks ago, the first post-primary survey of the race moved it from Solid Democratic to Leans Democratic.
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5pt lead for a Dem in a Rasmussen poll? Sounds pretty solidly Democratic to me…
You can add about 5 points to Manchin because the poll was done by the right-leaning Rasmussen. It is called the Rasmussen effect. So likely not as close. In addition, telephone polls are becoming less meaningful because they do not include cell phones and more and more younger people do not have landline phones and these people often tend to lean more democratic.
Nate Silver has West Virgina at a 89.7% chance Manchin wins. Although things have tightened a little bit, Manchin (56.2%) still has a huge lead versus Raese (43.9%). If Manchin was below 50% I would be worried.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/west-virginia