Comments on: Update In Ny-20

By: krove

krove — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 20:31:03 +0000

bloodstar, Please don’t tell Franco. He will not accept these numbers even though they are fact. It’s better than that for Murphy as Tedisco’s lawyers are contesting every Democrat ballot from out of district (dual home owners). So these will go before a judge to decide.This will only delay the result not alter it.

By: bloodstar

bloodstar — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 18:19:28 +0000

doing some quick back of the napkin calculations, it looks like Murphy is running about 3 – 4 percent better in the Absentee than in the main election, for example in Greene County which Tedisco won with 55.6% of the vote, the Absentee ballots (of which 206 out of 457 returned have been counted) are only favoring Tedisco by 52.2%Tedisco is going to need a MASSIVE return in Saratoga if the returns in the other counties continue like this. That or a massive number of military ballots coming in at the last minute. Beyond that, he needs to win them by large margins, because right now Murphy is on pace to gain 331 votes from the other counties (roughly).

By: krove

krove — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:22:28 +0000

Some more results in........Plus 83 for Murphy so far...

Murphy campaign spokesman Ryan Rudominer said that after Deleware County finished its count, Murphy had gained 20 votes. Tom Wade, chairman of the Rensselaer County Democratic Party, said that Murphy gained 10 total votes there, with 49 ballots unopened. (These include ballots from overseas citizens and military voters, which cannot be opened until April 13, and some ballots that were found objectionable by campaign staffers and laid aside.)

Virginia Martin, the Democratic elections commissioner in Columbia County, said Murphy gained 40 votes there today. That tally only includes absentee ballots - not emergency or affidavit ballots - and comprised seven election districts.

David Gamache, the Republican elections commissioner in Dutchess County, said Murphy picked up 13 votes there after counting ballots in the towns of Pine Plains, Amenia and Clinton.

By: krove

krove — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 20:23:49 +0000

First county in in NY-20

In Delaware County, the first county where absentee votes have been completely counted to date, Scott Murphy won the absentee ballot count by 20 votes. On Election Day, Tedisco won Delaware County. There is a Republican registration advantage of 63,000 to 48,000 there.

By: krove

krove — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 11:27:09 +0000

meanwhile back in Chicago the score on the special election is

With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Quigley had 69 percent to 24 percent for Republican Rosanna Pulido and 7 percent for Green Party candidate Matt Reichel (not a bad showing for a Green).

So with the GOP polling at 24% in the country Pulido could not win 1% of independents to her. With even the greens getting 7% which maybe is the right leaning independent vote?

By: krove

krove — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 11:24:56 +0000

Sinz, no I have it exactly right. If The GOP senators are true to their principles they will call for the Democrat to tie this up in the courts for years.

By: sinz54

sinz54 — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 11:24:20 +0000

Franco: May I remind you that to get a majority in Congress again, the GOP has to win seats in districts that are currently held by Democrats. If NY-20 doesn’t have good pickup potential for the GOP, can you name some other districts in which the GOP can take the seats away from the Dems?

By: sinz54

sinz54 — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 11:22:13 +0000

krove: I think you have it backwards. Tedisco is the Republican and Murphy is the Democrat.

By: krove

krove — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 10:18:25 +0000

Lets say Tedisco wins this by 312 votes. I guess the Republican Senators will demand Murphy takes the count all the way to the Supreme court and ties the election up for years!Like they have with the Coleman fight. I hold my breath.

By: ChristianMiller

ChristianMiller — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 07:56:06 +0000

I don't care how much money they spent. In fact they spent a great deal of it badly. I heard countless commercials on WABC talk radio during Rush's show - they can't be cheap, and they were pathetically lame spots produced by political automatons.

Moreover the spot I heard tried to take advantage of class warfare and phony populism around the AIG bonuses. That soured me on the guy right away. Had I lived in his district, I would not have been particularly motivated to vote for him. I'm sick of these poll-driven empty suits. He probably is better than the Democrat, but I am also sick of being held hostage by these men - I simply don't trust them. Think Arlen Spector.

Now, the fact that the entire Congressional district - every county- voted for Hillary and Spitzer in 2006 tells me a lot. How is this a slam dunk?

We have an individual race and with individual conditions and naturally people on both side would like to spin it as a national trend. The fact that so many here are prone to believe the Democrat spin is revealing.

The RNC is ossified and is filled with people who don't know what they believe, they just know Democrats are bad but they don't really know why -or are afraid to say.