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If you work on the assumption that the 2012 GOP nomination contest is a battle between Romney and not-Romney, John Thune’s departure helps Romney by removing a plausible candidate who is not Romney.
If you think Romney is already terminally wounded, then Thune’s departure helps the best organized of the not-Romney alternatives: Tim Pawlenty.
If you think that Republican primary voters are struggling to find a candidate who is 100% conservative but also free from the baggage carried by Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, that mission just got a lot harder.
I suppose I’m among group #1. I am very disappointed. Thune is terrific and has mass appeal. Darn.
But Thune may be calculating smartly — more important to hold that senate seat because the WH is unattainable. If it’s triage, I’ll settle for that and maybe he comes forward in 2016.
Thune’s shortest-ever campaign is a tree falling in a forest that no one heard; he had absolutely no shot at every getting anywhere so his quitting makes no difference to anyone.
Well, except for South Dakota’s massive tally of 27 delegates now being back in play.
“…removing a plausible candidate who is not Romney.”
That’s debatable, lol.
If you work on the assumption that the 2012 GOP nomination contest is a battle between Romney and not-Romney
Wait, why would you do that?
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/01/is-mike-huckabee-pulling-away-in-the-gop-presidential-primary.php
Do you know something we don’t know about the Conintern’s ability to tell people who to vote for, or what?
To be fair, position in the primary race this far out isn’t worth a whole lot. Huck might be up now, but whether that maintains momentum thru the primaries is questionable if for no other reason than early front-runners often/usually drop down later in the race (unscientific opinion based on my personal recollection of who’s the frontrunner early and who eventually gets the nod, applicable to both parties).
Oh, agreed 100%, busboy33, I don’t mean to argue that Huckabee is the prohibitive favorite or anything, any more than I thought Giuliani was last time around (proof! http://larison.org/2007/12/11/a-sign-of-the-apocalypse/#comment-8347 ). I just am questioning why Frum would regard the race as Romney vs. not-Romney.
As to the chances of the nominal leader, Huckabee, I think he has almost none. I learned in 2008 that the money wing of the party absolutely hates that guy, and that they get their way. I would be pleased to be proven wrong, but I don’t see the Tea Party changing anything– they just made John Boehner speaker and Paul Ryan the budget guy, when they were pro-Medicare Part D, pro-invason of Iraq, pro-Bush deficits, pro-TARP, etc. The Tea Party gets mad at whatever the Koch brothers and Rupert Murdoch tell them to get mad at. They’re a 95%-owned subsidiary of the GOP. The GOP is run by maybe a few dozen people who anointed Bush Jr. as their nominee in like 1997, and will do anything to prevent a populist outsider like Huckabee from getting the nomination. It’ll be someone like Mitch Daniels or Romney. Thune made a huge mistake in not running.
There are really no good options on the GOP side and time is running out. Most candidates in previous elections had declared their intention to run by the end of February. That gives them about 1 year to organize and rally support ahead of the first Iowa caucaus in February next year.
The GOP has a real problem. They do not have a strong candidate. Obama is going to be next to impossible to beat. The GOP should just focus on trying to maintain the House, which it is not a done deal they will maintain the House.
From what I’ve heard,none of the prospective GOP candidates have even formed an exploratory committee so they can begin raising funds for a GOP primary/caucus campaign. I believe McCain did that in December 2006 for his 2008 campaign.
Bdtex,
Every primary candidate on both the Republican and Democratic side had declared their candidacy by this time (end of Feb.) in the last election with the exception of McCain, but he said at the end of Feb. that he would officially declare his candidacy in March, so effectively he did declare in Feb. and Thompson, who came in late and we saw how that ended. Every day past the end of Feb. that ticks away will make it that much harder to put together an effective campaign to prepare for the first primary, which is only one year away. So candidates must declare now.
I am not sure what the Republicans are waiting for, other than those that are currently being paid by FOX and therefore do not wanting to give up their lucrative FOX jobs/money until the last minute.
I believe a non-candidate’s political arm can raise more money, legally, than a candidate’s campaign. Along with his national outfit, Free and Strong America, Romney also has numerous state organizations that benefit from his non-candidacy in that regard.
Further, I think that a non-candidate benefits by racking up chits and favors when he appears at events, fundraisers, etc. By contrast, a candidate is spending points, calling in favors, etc., when he appears; he’s the supplicant.
TRUMP
I don’t see a lot of evidence that Thune was much of a factor. He was somewhat flavorless, not identified with any particular cause or concern, had low recognition and wasn’t espousing positions that were insane enough to register with your rank-and-file, Kool-Aid®-drinking Republican.
Thune was a plausible candidate? He was even less plausible than our Law and Order actor friend.
And Mitch Daniels just doomed his GOP candidacy by his statements on the fleebagging Democratic lawmakers in Indiana and the GOP’s right-to-work legislation.
http://www.indystar.com/article/20110222/NEWS/110222004/Daniels-Time-dump-right-work-bill?odyssey=mod|breaking|text|IndyStar.com
“If you work on the assumption that the 2012 GOP nomination contest is a battle between Romney and not-Romney, John Thune’s departure helps Romney by removing a plausible candidate who is not Romney.”
On the other hand, the not-Romneys are less diluted now and it should be less difficult picking and supporting the genuine not-Romney earlier and more sincerely.
Who GAINS?!!!! Doesn’t that presume that anyone would have actually known or cared about Thune being in the race in the first place? Since he would have had negligible support in a wide open field, it makes no difference.
Daniels looked at the numbers from Gallup, and he knows that the clear majority of the country isn’t in the union-busters’ corner. His statement to his own party’s reps in the statehouse is designed to get him some bona fides as a reasonable Republican.
I think that any candidate who wants a long-term political future may want to stay out of the 2012 GOP Primaries.
Because the field I see has a lot of very mean, dirty fighting SOBs in it. For the last few years they’ve been able just to turn all that bile on the Dems, but as we’ve seen with some little intramural skirmishes so far, it’s going to turn really nasty before it’s all said and done.
And part of the reason is that they’ve now bred a GOP voter who has bought into the idea that if you’re not viciously attacking your opponents, you’re probably not enough of a fighter to represent them. To the Tea Partiers, willingness to shred your opponent and his/her reputation is a must for the General Election, and they’ll be taking the 2012 Primary Season as a test of who’s the meanest SOB on the block.
Thune, no doubt, realized he’d fail that test. He’s probably watching how silly Pawlenty looks trying to dive into the muck with the likes of streetfighters like Romney and Gingrich and Palin, and decided that putting himself through that with no real hope of winning the “meanest SOB” contest is pointless.
If Pawlenty ran as the person he was when he first governed Minnesota he might be Obama (but of course the Republicans would never nominate him because he was too moderate).
The Pawlenty that is running now may be saying all the “Right” things but the Far Right (IMHO) doesn’t like him and probably doesn’t believe him and the Center will view him as a sell out.
I don’t think we have really seen who will be the person who gets the nomination if Romney doesn’t get it.
Interesting post from Nate Silver. At this point things do not look very good for the Republicans:
“Nevertheless, this year’s Republican field is on the low end of popularity as compared to most recent ones — and early primary polls are meaningful enough that this is worth considering, along with other factors. The way that I would recommend thinking about Mr. Obama’s re-election chances, at this early stage, is to start with the baseline re-election rate for incumbent presidents (which is about 70 percent), and then make a list of other factors that might lead one to believe that this figure overestimates or underestimates them. Under the list of favorable factors for Mr. Obama, I would include a bullet-point for “Public has tepid view of Republican candidates; Republican nominee might be weaker than average.” ”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/what-early-presidential-polls-tell-us/
The obligatory “Thune’s not running for president” post « Hot Air // Feb 22, 2011 at 8:30 pm
[...] of job “creation” as a business guru to deal with. It’s a more apt description of Pawlenty, whose niche in the primaries will be among voters who don’t want either Palin or Romney. [...]
not surprised, got a feeling daniels might run as the gop guy with less baggage whos 100% conservative
I assumed people had held off declaring because they didn’t want their announcement to be swamped by happenings in the Middle East. And now Wisconsin is on everybody’s mind: if somebody declares now, they kind of have to take a stance on that issue, and it’s a big place to put down your stakes this early.
Picture Of A Vulnerable “Front Runner” | Spark // Feb 23, 2011 at 1:32 pm
[...] at the top of the polls consistently because he has name recognition from running in 2008. David Frum frames the news of Sen. John Thune skipping the 2012 contest (well, maybe not as a Veep) in the [...]
John Thune says 'no' to 2012: Winners and losers // Feb 23, 2011 at 1:38 pm
[...] If you look at the GOP nomination race as "a battle between Romney and not Romney," says David Frum in FrumForum, "Thune's departure helps Romney by removing a plausible candidate who is not Romney." [...]
Political Roundup for February 23, 2011…Red Racing Horses… - Politicaldog101.Com // Feb 23, 2011 at 2:55 pm
[...] Thune: Who gains from Thune’s departure? Nobody knows. This is the same answer to the question of whether there is a Republican base and, if so, do they know what they want? More….. Share on Facebook Tweet This Post Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Updates Political Roundup for February 23/2011, RedRacingHorses@Politicaldog101 [...]
Hva skjedde denne uka? 20.-26. februar 2011 | Amerikansk politikk // Feb 27, 2011 at 11:54 am
[...] om at han ikke kommer til å stille som presidentkandidat i 2012 (og David Frum hadde følgende å si om utfallet), men Thune avskriver selvsagt ikke muligheten for å stille som [...]
Late Returns: Everything You Need To Know About This Palin Tell-All | www.iflickle.com // May 7, 2011 at 11:48 pm
[...] plate. [NY Mag] Ron Paul: rolling in dough. Haley Barbour: endorsed by the Gipper. [Ben Smith] David Frum says that Thune's departure from the 2012 benefits Mitt Romney, unless it doesn't, in which case it [...]