RSS Feed MenuBoris Shor writes:
Alan Mollohan (D), who has represented West Virginia’s 1st District since 1983, was defeated in Tuesday’s Democratic primary by Mike Oliverio, a state legislator since 1993. . . . Oliverio is conservative. No, really, really super duper conservative. According to Wikipedia, he’s pro-life, and supports a state constitutional ban on gay marriage. . . . Exactly how conservative is he? Our [Boris Shor and Nolan McCarty's] common space score for him is 0.25, which puts him into the 96th percentile of his party for conservatism in his state for the last decade or so. He’s about as conservative as the average WV state Republican, and more conservative than many of them. If he wins the general election in November, he’d be replacing Mollohan, who scores a pretty liberal –0.5 [not far from the average for congressional Democrats]. . . . if Oliverio were to remain ideologically consistent (something I [Boris] consider very likely for all “graduating” state legislators), he’d be more conservative than the sole Republican in the state delegation to Congress, Shelley Capito. He’d be more conservative than a bunch of other Republicans, too. He’d be far more conservative than the most conservative Democrat in Congress, Idaho’s Walt Minnick, who voted against health care reform, the stimulus, and the Waxman-Markey environment bill. That’d be amazing. Remember, in our polarized times, no Republican in Congress is to the left of any Democrat (and, vice versa, no Democrat is to the right of any Republican). If elected to Congress, Oliverio could be the first conservative Democrat in a long time to make at least some Republicans look liberal.
To translate this into the language of sabermetrics, Boris is echoing Bill James in saying that minor-league stats are highly predictive of major-league performance. And he seems to have been right about Scott Brown.
ktward // May 17, 2010 at 4:41 pm
It’s a win-win for ‘Pubs any way you slice it.
Few believe Oliverio will remain a Dem for long if elected:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/55522/how-loyal-democrat-mike-oliverio
But can he win the GE?
http://www.wvared.com/?p=5153
To win his race, Oliverio needs all the people who voted for Barack Obama for President to be “fired up and ready to go.” Most of those voters are not going to get “fired up” when Oliverio bashes cap and trade, health care reform, and corporate bailouts on the campaign trail.
If all the Obama voters and supporters voted for Oliverio he still would not win the election. John McCain won the district in 2008 and President George Bush won it in both 2000 and 2004. Mike Oliverio needs conservative Democrats and independents to win.
The tricky part is how do you get a good portion of the conservatives Democrats and independents to support you and not piss off the liberal Obama Democrats in WV-01.
The question is will running as what some have called “Republican-Lite” be enough to win or will voters decide to pull the Republican lever and go all in for David McKinley.
Demosthenes // May 17, 2010 at 5:30 pm
This is no surprise. Conservative Democrats are alive and well. Not only this person, but many others in the South and Midwest too numerous to count here. When the Republican Party went off the deep end with religious fanatics, racists, right wing nuts and tea party crackpots(Palin, Bachmann, DeMint, Rubio, etc.), non-crazy conservatives and moderates continued their migration to the Democrats. It may slow down in 2010, but rest assured it will continue. That is the entire issue surrounding the estimable Mr. Frum’s banishment.
easton // May 17, 2010 at 6:47 pm
ktward, thanks for the link. I am a very big tent Democrat (pro-life, nat. security, Iraq war supporter, etc.) but at some point labels have to mean something. And they mean far less if he were to be elected and switch parties right off the bat. It is one thing to make a calculated risk and have someone be in the tent pissing out instead of outside pissing in, but far worse to have someone inside the tent pissing inside it.
And contrary to Dick Morris there are plenty of Conservative Democrats, it is just that Morris has defined it so rightward as to make it impossible to meet his definition.
sinz54 // May 17, 2010 at 6:49 pm
Demosthenes: non-crazy conservatives and moderates continued their migration to the Democrats. It may slow down in 2010, but rest assured it will continue.
It will not continue,
as long as the Dem Party is led by Obama and Pelosi.
Frum and I are “non-crazy conservatives.”
But we will NOT take direction from Obama and Pelosi.
And neither will most of my neighbors in my area of Massachusetts. They voted for Scott Brown in huge numbers. But there is a world of difference between Scott Brown’s policies and Nancy Pelosi’s policies.
easton // May 17, 2010 at 7:25 pm
sinz54, huh? You seriously can’t believe moderates will gravitate towards a party that takes its marching orders from Palin, Bachmann, and a whole host of southern fried crazies. I voted for Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton twice, skipped 2000 because McCain wasn’t the nominee and thought Bush and Gore were equally bad and barely pulled the trigger for Kerry, but voted for Obama (had it been the McCain of 2000, I dunno what I would have done)
And Scott Brown didn’t win huge. He won by 5% points, not 15 or 20. And Chokely was horrendous, I would never have voted for her because she was an entitled jerk (what, me shake hands with the riff raff in the cold, perish the thought?)
So don’t conflate individual races with national mood so much. I voted for Christie in NJ not because I agree with all his policies, but because Corzine was a disgrace and Christie a competent, DA with moderate instincts (but sadly, it looks like Christie might be just as arrogant and entitled as Corzine was) . The Republican victories have been by people posing as moderates, the ones they lost (like in NY) was when the teabaggers destroyed the Republicans hopes.
Demosthenes is right, the Republicans are skewing older and whiter than ever before, for a country that is on the way to becoming minority majority by mid century, this will spell doom for the party unless the David Camorinze it. (which I think they will do after this recent bout of insanity dies out)
Slide // May 18, 2010 at 7:20 am
sinz54 // May 17, 2010 at 6:49 pm “But there is a world of difference between Scott Brown’s policies and Nancy Pelosi’s policies.”
I would suspect that over time you will see that there is more of a difference between Scott Brown’s policies and Jim DeMint’s, or Sarah Palin’s, or Mike Pence’s, or . . .
sinz54 // May 17, 2010 at 6:49 pm: “Frum and I are “non-crazy conservatives.” But we will NOT take direction from Obama and Pelosi.
Really? First off, I doubt very much that David would agree with that sentence. I suggest you talk about yourself and not others, and secondly what exactly does that mean, that you won’t take “direction” from Obama and Pelosi? Does that mean that you will be in opposition to him no matter what, like the Senate Republicans? Many of them voted against legislation that they co-sponsored, such as PAYGO, just because Obama proposed it. To hell with what might be right for the country, they just won’t “take direction” from Obama and Pelosi.
I’m sorry but I find a comment like that deeply unpatriotic. Disagree all you want on policy questions. Point out the problems with any initiative by Obama, fight him tooth and nail on things that you believe are harmful for our nation. But to say simply that you would not “take direction” from the President of the United States of America, no matter what, is rather un-American in my estimation, and very harmful to our democracy. It is what I find most repugnant about today’s Republican party. Oh, and one last thing, that DOES make you a “crazy” Conservative my friend.
DFL // May 18, 2010 at 9:25 am
Here on Maryland’s Eastern Shore, we are likely to finish “conservative” Democrat Frank Kratovil’s congressional career.
TerryF98 // May 18, 2010 at 10:22 am
Slide
You are 100% right. People like Sinz, who is a total warmongering neocon are anti American in their attitudes. They hide behind the flag and their view of the constitution.
Sinz is still locked in the 1960’s hippy wars. Or more likely the 1860’s
ottovbvs // May 18, 2010 at 12:30 pm
…….Since there are roughly 45 blue dog Democrats you could hardly say “conservative” Democrats ever went away………how many blue dog Republicans are there?…..basically the Democratic party is a much broader church than the Republican one which is both a blessing and a curse from a legislative point of view………Mollohan was crook so he’s no loss but WV is a funny state……. poor, backward, heavily dependant on federal handouts, largely under the control of coal companies……..Oliverio can posture all he likes about social issues but when it gets down to wire he’ll have his hand out for federal goodies like all the other “real” conservatives ( how’s that anti federal posture working out for you Bobbie?)
ottovbvs // May 18, 2010 at 12:37 pm
sinz54 // May 17, 2010 at 6:49 pm
“Frum and I are “non-crazy conservatives.”
………Sinz is not crazy…….he justs want to start a major war in the middle east with Iran…….totally sane……and he has a certificate to prove it
DFL // May 18, 2010 at 1:43 pm
West Virginia is one of the more politically crooked states and both parties partake. otto, you may want to scan the internet over the story of coal miner Chuck Nelson, who is taking on Massey Energy on the issue of coal safety. The reporting of Russel Mokhiber of Corporate Crime Reporter may interest you. In fact, I believe Mokhiber is in Richmond today at the yearly meeting of Massey Energy protesting that company’s safety shortcutting
ottovbvs // May 18, 2010 at 5:21 pm
DFL // May 18, 2010 at 1:43 pm
“West Virginia is one of the more politically crooked states and both parties partake.”
…….I know….. which is what makes all this speculation absurd……believe me Oliverio will have his hand out whether he’s a conservative Democrat or Republican