RSS Feed MenuInteresting column today by Bill Kristol in the Washington Post.
[F]ully 72 percent of Republicans say they’re conservative. …
The implications of this for the Republican Party over the remaining three years of the Obama presidency are clear: The GOP is going to be pretty unapologetically conservative. There aren’t going to be a lot of moderate Republican victories in intra -party skirmishes. And — with the caveat that the political world can, of course, change quickly — there will be a conservative Republican presidential nominee in 2012.
That seems right. But one addition to the math: Since only about 20% of Americans currently identify as Republicans, Bill’s numbers imply that conservative Republicans currently constitute about 14.4% of the population.
So while Bill’s predictions of continuing conservative/populist dominance within the GOP look accurate, the future looks much bleaker for the GOP itself. As Bill himself acknowledges:
In last week’s Post-ABC News poll, a plurality of respondents disapproved of Obama-type health-care reform. In other words, they agree with the Republicans in Congress. But when asked how much confidence they had in congressional Republicans to make the right decisions for the country’s future, only 19 percent of respondents expressed much confidence in the GOP — well behind the confidence levels in congressional Democrats (34 percent) and Obama (49 percent).
Bill’s own analysis, in other words, suggests that the current trajectory of the conservative movement is less “onward toward victory,” and much more, “a growing fish within a shrinking pond.”
ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:07 am
ireign // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:59 pm
“sftor1-”I for one could have sworn that ireign was a woman, based on her style of argument and a certain insecurity and lack of self-worth that shines through.”
……..not a woman I think but definitely a big time Adler problem
“Funny, sftor1, I could have sworn you were a moron born with an extra chromosome based on your ridiculous posts. Actually, I haven’t taken anything you said seriously since you made your politically incorrect and inaccurate remark that was something of the effect as “people only go to the Dominican Republican for prostitution.”
………more Republican moderation and rationality?
Thanos // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:11 am
The dismaying thing about this is that the 14 percent conservative base is also going to diminish over the next few years, and since they have nothing to offer except bile and nihilism, they are driving potential new voters away. This is evidenced by the surge in numbers of third parties, the Libertarians are now at an all time high.
Gallup has a chart showing party affiliation, and you should note that the largest percent of the Republican base is very elderly. Over the next few presidential cycles many of them will pass on, but we are doing nothing to fill the bench. See this essay and accompanying chart where I worry that our strongest support is in age groups 66-86.
http://noblesseoblige.org/wordpress/2009/05/19/walking-to-the-elephant-graveyard/
ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:21 am
dfl // Oct 28, 2009 at 9:20 am
“All politics has an ebb and flow.”
………Undoubtedly true, but the ebbs can be much more extended than you suggest……..the conservatives have been out of power in Britain for about 14 years………….In the US the Democrats were basically in the ascendant from 1932 to 1980……..I really think you are ignoring societal, demographic, generational and geographic shifts which have been building for years and which are not working to the GOP’s advantage…..on the contrary they are bent on denying or rejecting them…….I certainly don’t think the GOP is going to fragment but it’s going into a period of eclipse because of the shifts I mentioned and internecine warfare……..ultimately these issues will be resolved and the GOP will return electoral viability but it will be achieved as it alway is by a move back to the center.
ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:34 am
……..The fatal flaw in these sort of polls is that the labels conservative, liberal and moderate are essentiably fungible…..they exist in the eye of the beholder, or in this case the person being polled……basically this renders them worthless other than as fodder for the political entertainment industry in which we are currently participating……they are certainly a poor guide to people’s voting intentions that are much more accurately captured in more purely party political polls and the message from these is fairly clear and consistent.
Thanos // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:38 am
I like party identification: it’s a clearer indicator. You can see that R’s are shrinking, L’s and I’s are increasing. Trying to be “more or most conservative” will not stop that bleeding.
ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:40 am
orion // Oct 28, 2009 at 1:41 am
“Effectively this country is Conservative because there’s a majority or plurality of conservatives everywhere except the most densely packed urban areas;”
………most Americans live in urban areas……inner cities or the burbs……outside the South/Utah these went overwhelmingly for Obama and the Democrats
ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:58 am
…….On the subject of Polls……here’s a couple of recent poll question from Zogby whose polls are sometimes quoted here by conservatives:
“Federal Communications Commission Chief Diversity Czar Mark Lloyd wants the FCC to force good white people in positions of power in the broadcast industry to step down to make room for more African-Americans and gays to fill those positions. Do you agree or disagree that this presents a threat to free speech?”
“The Obama administration recently declared that the White House would treat the Fox News Channel as an ‘opponent,’ and declared that Fox News is not a ‘legitimate
news organization.’ Do you agree or disagree that this is an attempt by the Obama administration to silence dissent?”
……..I particularly liked the “good white people”……It’s really hard to make this stuff up……..God knows who he was doing them for but I think we can see the result they wanted!
Differing Interpretations of the GOP’s Future « Astroturf Superstar // Oct 28, 2009 at 11:23 am
[...] Frum, however, comes to a very different conclusion. Instead, he sees a bleak future for the GOP: So while Bill’s predictions of continuing conservative/populist dominance within the GOP look [...]
balconesfault // Oct 28, 2009 at 11:45 am
………most Americans live in urban areas……inner cities or the burbs……outside the South/Utah these went overwhelmingly for Obama and the Democrats
Moreover – look at this map, and click on the County Leaders tab
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html
note that in Texas, for example, Travis County (Austin) and Tarrant County (Dallas) are dark blue … Harris County (Houston) and Bexar County (San Antonio) are light blue. Zoom into Georgia – you’ll find the counties for Atlanta, Savannah, Macon, Augusta are all blue. Alabama? Mobile and Huntsville remain red, Birmingham and Montgomery blue. Mississippi? The county with Jackson is blue. Arkansas? Little Rock and Pine Bluff are in blue counties.
As urban populations continue to grow in these states – in no small part due to migrants from the north – their influence on statewide voting will correspondingly grow.
And yes – that Zogby quasi push-poll is a remarkable “what are they thinking” moment.
ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 12:18 pm
balconesfault // Oct 28, 2009 at 11:45 am
…….You’re right about population shifts pushing some states further left…..Florida is going solid blue mark my words now that Cuba is fading as an issue
…….The Zogby poll is so bizarre one almost wonders if it’s a prank but apparently it’s kosher
Churl // Oct 28, 2009 at 2:23 pm
ottovbs, says, “I particularly liked the “good white people….”
Yes, the phrase encompasses the sort of thought that a “typical white person” (e.g. somebody’s grandma) would respond to immediately.
balconesfault // Oct 28, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Certainly when I was young, growing up in Texas, I heard the phrase “that’s mighty white of you” used many times.
Churl // Oct 28, 2009 at 3:47 pm
balconesfault, in your Texas days was the phrase “that’s mighty white of you” pejorative, as it seems to be now?
balconesfault // Oct 28, 2009 at 6:45 pm
I’ve never heard of it being used as a pejorative in any context, at any time.
Although now it does make the person using it look bad, fwiw.
Back then it was most certainly considered a compliment.