Interesting column today by Bill Kristol in the Washington Post.
[F]ully 72 percent of Republicans say they’re conservative. …
The implications of this for the Republican Party over the remaining three years of the Obama presidency are clear: The GOP is going to be pretty unapologetically conservative. There aren’t going to be a lot of moderate Republican victories in intra -party skirmishes. And — with the caveat that the political world can, of course, change quickly — there will be a conservative Republican presidential nominee in 2012.
That seems right. But one addition to the math: Since only about 20% of Americans currently identify as Republicans, Bill’s numbers imply that conservative Republicans currently constitute about 14.4% of the population.
So while Bill’s predictions of continuing conservative/populist dominance within the GOP look accurate, the future looks much bleaker for the GOP itself. As Bill himself acknowledges:
In last week’s Post-ABC News poll, a plurality of respondents disapproved of Obama-type health-care reform. In other words, they agree with the Republicans in Congress. But when asked how much confidence they had in congressional Republicans to make the right decisions for the country’s future, only 19 percent of respondents expressed much confidence in the GOP — well behind the confidence levels in congressional Democrats (34 percent) and Obama (49 percent).
Bill’s own analysis, in other words, suggests that the current trajectory of the conservative movement is less “onward toward victory,” and much more, “a growing fish within a shrinking pond.”
64 responses so far
1 raygun // Oct 27, 2009 at 1:32 pm
The one thing we can hope for is that most of Kristol’s opinions and predictions get proved wrong over time.
2 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 2:06 pm
2 ireign // Oct 27, 2009 at 1:47 pm
“Self-identification” means very little. OttoBS thinks he is a rational and moderate person but that does not make it so.
……..Pinocchio wouldn’t recognize a rational and moderate person if he fell over one which is why he’s one of the 14.4% that David identifies.
……..Like David, Kristol’s piece took my eye this morning because of his startling, but in my view entirely accurate, admission that for the next few years the center of gravity in the GOP is going to be Palin, Limbaugh, Beck, Tea baggers, Huckabee, Fox News, etc, etc.
……..The entirely moderate and rational irreign (aka Pinocchio because of his disregard of truth and reality) who slavishly supports a GOP that is daily becoming more irrational and immoderate has a lot of disapointments in store I’m afraid.
3 Reason60 // Oct 27, 2009 at 2:17 pm
I see these dueling polls, one showing that self-identified “conservatives” hold a plurality of the electorate; another in which “republicans” are only 20%, and so forth.
But the terms are a bit misleading; I would answer that I am a “conservative” as would many others, yet I am diametrically opposed to many other “conservatives” on issues such as the wars, federal spending, and social policy.
Are “conservatives” in favor of a balanced budget, or willing to tolerate deficits to finance the war?
Limited government power, or in favor of the Patriot Act?
Which is why the conservative movement is splintering, since no one can agree on what the term means.
4 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 2:28 pm
reason60 // Oct 27, 2009 at 2:17 pm
…….That is why many of these polls are utterly stupid…….in many areas I’m a conservative…..extremely so…….but I don’t support the Republican party these days……likewise a lot of these rather obscure issue polls that can be slanted depending on wording…….the only polls worth paying attention to are the broad generic ones like candidate/party approvals, party id, right way wrong way, that sort of stuff…..anyone who works in the polling industry will tell you that this is so………these silly polls are basically a branch of the entertainment industry to give the press something to talk about and partisans to throw at each other.
5 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 3:21 pm
ireign: I see on internet applications such as a facebook people who I would characterize as left-wing self identify as moderate.
To the extent that is true that fact should provide you nightmares, and not solace.
6 Churl // Oct 27, 2009 at 3:35 pm
If things were really looking this bad for Republicans (and consequently looking so good for Obama) the President would not have to waste the dignity of his office and the time of his staff attacking the likes of Fox News, Humana, and the Chamber of Commerce.
Similarly, his supporters would be writing praises for his accomplishments instead of trolling faux-conservative web sites.
7 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 3:45 pm
If things were really looking this bad for Republicans (and consequently looking so good for Obama) the President would not have to waste the dignity of his office and the time of his staff attacking the likes of Fox News, Humana, and the Chamber of Commerce.
Define “attack”. Use specifics.
And offhand remarks by staff when asked questions certainly isn’t a “use of their time”. Those generally tend to be personal opinions. Fortunately, we do live in a country where even Federal Employees have the right to voice their opinions when asked.
8 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 4:06 pm
ireign: you might have some rudimentary knowledge of political science – but it is clear that you’re not particularly good at algebra
9 midcon // Oct 27, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Republicans only comprise 19% of the electorate and I fail to see why measuring anything about Republicans is important or should interest Americans. It would be interesting to measure whether independents are conservative or even how many Democrats are conservative. But to measure something regarding Republicans? Republicans are pretty much just a cult at this point so why bother?
10 Churl // Oct 27, 2009 at 4:24 pm
balconesfault, you know the recent behavior of Obama and the White House in the matter of Fox News. I say it’s attacking and I say to hell with it (allusion to old New Yorker cartoon). It is unbecoming of the office.
Further, I don’t think that Executive Department staff in their remarks to national media are prone to “offhand remarks”. If staffers know what they are doing (and I’m pretty sure these folks do) they don’t stray too far from their boss’s line of thinking in their public utterances.
I agree with you that we are fortunate that “we do live in a country where even Federal Employees have the right to voice their opinions when asked.” subject of course to the terms of the Hatch Act.
It is also fortunate that we live in a country where people who are not employees of or cheeerleaders for the government can say what they want as well. And I hope it stays that way.
11 Willems // Oct 27, 2009 at 4:25 pm
I think it is time to think seriously about America in relation to the European Union and the influence it is and will be having. The simple truth is that Europe is uniting fast and deep. Europe is starting to look stronger and more intelligent that the the United States on many fronts. Obama clearly is leaning in this direction. In Europe, Republicans are not understood or respected.
In a secular high tech world, Republicans look lonely and out of touch.
Republican policy makers should think deeply about issues of labour, and essentially discover new ways to build and maximize human capital. This is an area is open for inovation. The welfare state is slow and heavy. The American system rewards the ambitious but leaves many out in the co ld. Innovation will require itelligent and interdisciplinary solutions. Simply put, Republicans need to get smarter, more open-minded, and out-think Europe, not to mention the Democrats.
12 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Churl // Oct 27, 2009 at 3:35 pm
“If things were really looking this bad for Republicans (and consequently looking so good for Obama) the President would not have to waste the dignity of his office and the time of his staff attacking the likes of Fox News, Humana, and the Chamber of Commerce.’
……..One wonders why the Bush admin wasted the dignity of his office and his staff’s time attacking the Wilsons or Acorn………Answer: it’s smart politics…….the same is true of taking on Fox……he’s solidifying their audience……of around 2.5 million…..but it’s 2.5 million people who think exactly like you while the rest of the country thinks Beck, Hannity, O’Reilly and co are nuts……he’s boxing you in as Kristol cheerfully admits when he says Fox, Palin, Huckabee, Limbaugh and Beck are now the center of gravity of the GOP……no doubt you think this is great…..so I hope the trend continues and then we’ll both be happy…..and btw health insurance companies aren’t the most popular institutions in the country…..just thought I’d mention it.
13 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 4:58 pm
“I know that is shocking to you Balconesfault as you clearly think of yourself as a moderate and not the ill-informed partisan who gets his news from the Huffington Post, daily kos, and wikipedia.”
“Actually, I was prety good at algebra when I was younger and my math SATs reflected it. But once again, your petty insults are inaccurate, unfunny, and stupid.”
…..irreign can’t help himself can he…….the immaturity and self regard is like the discover card… priceless
14 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:02 pm
churl: balconesfault, you know the recent behavior of Obama and the White House in the matter of Fox News. I say it’s attacking and I say to hell with it (allusion to old New Yorker cartoon). It is unbecoming of the office.
Once again – define “attack”. The Administration has been stating their opinion that Fox News has not been acting as a news organization, but rather as an arm of the RNC. There is a substantial amount of evidence for this, not the least of which being that Fox regularly attacks and presses for investigations of Democratic politicians, but never does so with respect to Republican politicians having any significant role in the party. Acknolwedging this fact is no “attack”, any more than noting that Rachael Maddow reports on Republican political operatives more than she reports on Democratic operatives is an “attack” on her.
It is sort of sad to see the response to this not being some sort of provision of evidence as to how Fox actually has pressed investigations into Republicans over the years – but rather a cacophony of whining that Fox is being picked on.
Fox most certainly has a right to state their opinion. And the Obama Administration has a right to point out why they consider Fox to be an opinion outlet, and not a news outlet that makes any attempt at impartiality.
15 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:21 pm
ireign: Actually, I was prety good at algebra when I was younger and my math SATs reflected it. But once again, your petty insults are inaccurate, unfunny, and stupid.
Oh, I have no doubt that you WERE good at algebra. Those skills seem perhaps to have slipped. Or maybe you fail to see a very simple algebraic equation outside of a textbook or an SAT booklet.
So rather than squeeze water from a stone, I will present it to you, in the form of some simple statements.
a) a certain percentage of the electorate considers themselves to be “moderate”. Thus, we have x% self-identified liberals … y% self-identified moderates … and z% self-identified conservatives.
b) your contention, if I understood it correctly, is that there are a large number of self-identified moderates who are in fact, in your opinion, liberals. Let’s call that large number “a”.
c) that would suggest, using simple algebra, that the actual number of moderates is really y’, defined as y’=y-a. You will note that this results in a smaller number of moderates than y.
d) similarly, this would suggest that the actual number of liberals is really x’, defined as x’=x+a. Thus, the number of liberals reported by polling is actually an undercount, since there is some number of actual liberals who self-identify as moderates.
This exercise can be repeated with conservatives – and your belief that some number b of self-identified conservatives are actually moderates … or even liberals. Let’s make b(1) the number of self-identified conservatives who are actually moderate in your opinion … and b(2) the number of self-identified conservatives who are actually liberal in your opinion.
So, the resulting equations:
z’= z-(b(1)+b(2))
y’= y-a+b(1)
x’ = x+a+b(2)
The net result of this exercise is to produce a larger number of liberals, a smaller number of conservatives, and a larger or smaller number of moderates (depending on the relative values of a and b(1) ).
Now, there are three possible ramifications of this realignment according to the rules of ireign.
First, people are appalled to discover that their ideological principles shift them leftwards into ireign’s moderate or liberal categories, and change their core beliefs in order to remain more ideologically pure and retain the ireign good conservatism seal of approval.
Second, people hear ireign affixing to them a label other than they affix to themself, and say “what a dork”, and are less inclined to consider you seriously with respect to anything you say in the future.
Third, people say “hey, if my ideological beliefs classify me actually as a moderate … or even a liberal … then maybe it was stupid to consider myself a conservative in the first place … and maybe I should be more inclined to vote against political candidates who declare that they are conservative, and to support political candidates who are liberals.”
Now, it takes a special form of self-delusion to believe in the first preposition – that people will alter their core beliefs simply because of the label you put on them.
But there is no doubt that this is the proposition which the majority of the Republican Party is currently depending on for future party growth.
That and spitballs.
16 Churl // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:22 pm
balconesfault, as you say “has been stating their opinion that Fox News has not been acting as a news organization, but rather as an arm of the RNC”.
“Stating their opinion” in this manner, in this case is “attacking” by another name, smelling as sweet.
I leave it to you, substitute for “attack” whatever word you or other left wingers would have used if the Bush White House had similarly behaved toward a news organization.
17 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:29 pm
balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:02 pm
……….It’s a masterly bit of political gamemanship for godsake which is why Churl is giving us the mucho pomposo dignity of office routine…..no need to join him……..Fox=Beck=Palin=Limbaugh=Republicans=Hannity=Bachmann=O’Reilly=Tea baggers=Huckabee=Gingrich=Fox……Join the dots………and none other than Bill Kristol confirms it’s all true……these people are the center of gravity of the GOP……the fact that 60%+ of the country thinks they are off the wall is unfortunate…..but not for the white house.
18 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:33 pm
19 Churl // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:22 pm
” I leave it to you, substitute for “attack” whatever word you or other left wingers would have used if the Bush White House had similarly behaved toward a news organization.”
……..Actually they launched repeated attacks against NBC and MSNBC…….maybe you were abroad at the time
19 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Actually they launched repeated attacks against NBC and MSNBC…….maybe you were abroad at the time
Not to mention an 8 year moratorium on the White House responding to interview requests from the NY Times. Did we hear about this on a daily basis? Nope.
Yet 10 months of Obama not talking to Fox sets off squeals of anguish from the right wing.
As I said – floppers all.
20 Churl // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:53 pm
Spot on, balconesfault or ottovbs, or whoever. I was abroad at the time but I kept up with home news via internet. Yes, these were attacks, just like those by Obama and his administration.
And if we didn’t hear them vividly described as such every day, I expect that the left’s freedom of expression watchdogs were napping and allowed the right wing oppressors to throttle information flow.
21 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:57 pm
ireign:
That is correct. There are more liberals out there than self-identification surveys would indicate.
I actually agree – in no small part because there has been an extraordinarily well-financed campaign over the last decades to demonize the term “liberal”. In fact, I have a hard time using it for myself, in no small part because there are a lot of things that liberals claim a “right” for that (eg -universal healthcare) that I don’t see as a right, but simply a smart way to run a country.
However, my main point is that self-identification is just not accurate and that liberals generally mischaracterize their beliefs more than conservatives do
This is all a function of where one draws the line between conservatism and liberalism. This statement only makes sense if one looks at the world through your eyes, or someone who thinks like you. There are a large number of liberals who would consider me quite conservative in my politics.
which is in part, why Democrats outnumber Republicans but many more Americans identify themselves as moderate or conservative than liberal.
I really do not understand what you are saying with that statement – could you parse it more carefully for me?
After that, your “simple statements” are so idiotic that I cannot take anything you say seriously.
I would appreciate a more detailed critique than this. Certainly my statements are very concise and clear, so it should not be difficult for you to offer one.
You would do well to take a class in logic and learn the difference between correlation and causation.
I do understand the difference, although certainly there is possibility that my own inherent biases blind me to some error in what I wrote. That said, directing me to take a class in logic is a very poor substitute for explaining what you mean. If you’re going to take the time to respond, your response should at least be minimally responsive.
22 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:03 pm
churl: I expect that the left’s freedom of expression watchdogs were napping and allowed the right wing oppressors to throttle information flow.
No, I would imagine it has more to do with the NY Times attempting to report the news … and not to become the news.
Fox has no such compulsions. Thus, we had Fox News not only actively participating in organizing the Tea Bag rallies, but footage of Fox News producers actively cheerleading crowds so they could appear more animated in the clips that Fox showed on the evening news.
All in Fox’s perview – and you do not see liberals in Congress calling for Fox “journalists” to be imprisoned, or decertified from the press pool, the way we saw with Republicans doing to the media just a couple years ago. I haven’t even seen an argument made that Fox should be censured for campaign finance violations, for things like hiring a close Bush relative to call the election for Bush in 2000.
But it has now become an “attack” simply to point these things out? Very pathetic indeed.
23 Reason60 // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:19 pm
” I think it is time to think seriously about America in relation to the European Union and the influence it is and will be having. The simple truth is that Europe is uniting fast and deep. Europe is starting to look stronger and more intelligent that the the United States on many fronts. Obama clearly is leaning in this direction. In Europe, Republicans are not understood or respected. ”
But…but…they’re FRENCH! or something like it! And they drive little bitty cars instead of Escalades! And their tee vee shows titties! And they get 4 weeks of vacation! And they live in apartments instead of McMansions!
Think this is sarcastic snark? Then read this load of Euro-phobia on display by Victor Davis Hanson over at Pajamas Media .
http://pajamasmedia.com/victordavishanson/on-becoming-europe/
24 Churl // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:24 pm
balconesfault, I can see that you are as annoyed at government efforts to stifle news organizations as your conservative opposition is.
Keep the faith. Open communication is necessary for a free society.
25 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:31 pm
Keep the faith. Open communication is necessary for a free society.
Indeed it is. That said, we have as much right to be as suspicious of the motives of parts of the Fourth Estate as we are of any other entity – particularly when the Fourth Estate is essentially a billion dollar business owned by millionaires and billionaires – with a primary interest in maximizing the sale of advertising to other millionaires and billionaires. It is not unreasonable to suspect that their concerns are often far different from those for us in the middle class.
26 Churl // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:32 pm
Also sprach ottovbs, “……….It’s a masterly bit of political gamemanship for godsake which is why Churl is giving us the mucho pomposo dignity of office routine…..no need to join him……..Fox=Beck=Palin=Limbaugh=Republicans=Hannity=Bachmann=O’Reilly=Tea baggers=Huckabee=Gingrich=Fox……Join the dots………and none other than Bill Kristol confirms it’s all true……these people are the center of gravity of the GOP……the fact that 60%+ of the country thinks they are off the wall is unfortunate…..but not for the white house.”
This reads like some combination of English prose, algebra, and geometry. I don’t fully understand it. Could you translate this into the vulgate for me?
27 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:37 pm
reason: Then read this load of Euro-phobia on display by Victor Davis Hanson over at Pajamas Media .
Wow – there’s enough straw in there to use for the upcoming Texas A&M bonfire!
Some rather astonishing logical contortions, as well – for example, we are expected to believe that European societies are taxing everyone into a faceless middle class dependent on government … and at the same time protecting the dynastic wealthy from downward class mobility.
There is a reason why Hanson specialized in a field like the Classics which requires ability to appreciate mythology, but not necessarily ability to make a cogent economic argument.
It is kind of him to find people who agree with him “brilliant”.
And it was remarkable to read a whole piece by Hanson where he does not once use the term “Islamofascism”. I thought when he mentioned Turkey we were sure to get that morsel thrown our way!
28 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:38 pm
This reads like some combination of English prose, algebra, and geometry.
Perhaps more like Ginsberg. That’s Allen, not Ruth Bader…
29 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:46 pm
30 Churl // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:32 pm
“This reads like some combination of English prose, algebra, and geometry. I don’t fully understand it. ”
……You probably don’t…….but then it’s obvious you don’t have much talent for joining dots…….or you wouldn’t still be peddling Republican talking points
30 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:49 pm
balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:38 pm
“Perhaps more like Ginsberg. That’s Allen, not Ruth Bader…”
……..Really…..I was always more of Longfellow man myself……..but for those who can’t plumb my Ginsbergian style it’s all adds up to …….Obama knows exactly what he’s doing with Fox
31 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:55 pm
ireign // Oct 27, 2009 at 5:46 pm
“Balconesfault-After that, your “simple statements” are so idiotic that I cannot take anything you say seriously. You would do well to take a class in logic and learn the difference between correlation and causation.”
…….more moderation and rationality from a typical Republican
32 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:57 pm
“And they get 4 weeks of vacation!”
…….Six actually………and VDH is another ornament of Republican rationality and moderation who I’d love to see get more exposure beyond preaching to the converted.
33 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 8:00 pm
balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 6:37 pm
“reason: Then read this load of Euro-phobia on display by Victor Davis Hanson over at Pajamas Media .
Wow – there’s enough straw in there to use for the upcoming Texas A&M bonfire!”
……..I took ten to read this. It’s extraordinary how it both conforms to and reinforces all those attitudes that Carville and Democracy Corps reported on from those focus groups. This stuff should scare the pants of the trad leaders of the GOP like McConnell. Basically as Carville pointed out we have roughly 70% of the second party in the country that is deeply irrational and paranoid and it’s probably the roughly 20% who are still id-ing themselves as Republicans(which is a more optimistic take than Frum’s). On top of this you have another 20% of the country that is basically firmish to soft conservative. Against this you have the Democratic coalition that commands a fairly safe 50-55% support with the potential to pick off the entire real independants ( probably only 5%) and the super soft underbelly of the Republican leaning independants. And Kristol’s formula for success is to double down on the hardcore 20% who are well represented here…….It’s also hard to believe this isn’t being talked about in some boardrooms and it’s implications for where you put your money in the future….maybe that’s what’s behind the attrition at the CoC.
34 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:00 pm
I don’t think anyone short of Noam Chomsky would consider you “quite conservative.”
Shows you don’t get out much.
I suspect even though you vote reliably Democrat and you spew typical liberal talking points, you self-identify as “moderate” or even “conservative.”
I’m not conservative, although I certainly am moderate on most points. I can prove that, in that my opinions tend to match up well with majority polling numbers – so unless you consider the majority of Americans to be liberal that fits well.
I think most people (correctly or incorrectly) synonmously identify liberal with Democrat, moderate with independent or not particularly partisan Republican or Democrat, and conservative with Republican. Thus, people always note that there are more conservatives than liberals (based on self-identification) and therefore, Republicans are losing because they are not governing by their principles and Democrats because they are not moving enough towards the center in a center-right country.
That is certainly a story that the media likes to tell. Mainly because center-right serves corporate interests most, and the media in America is heavily pro-corporate.
Another interpretation is that “conservative principles” is a spectrum unto itself – and as the Republican Party moves further and further to the right along that spectrum, it relinquishes more and more people to the political middle … and eventually even to the Democratic Party, which has adopted language of conservatism and speaks to those moderate-conservatives who are increasingly alienated by hard right conservatives.
35 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:12 pm
ireign: If many more Democrats self-identify as moderate and conservative despite being pretty liberal than Republicans identify as moderate or liberal who are really pretty conservative, you have a situation where you have more “conservatives” than “liberals” despite there being more Democrats than Republicans.
Correction … or perhaps, qualification.
You have more self-identified conservatives than self-identified liberals.
But per ireign, you actually have more liberals than conservatives.
Which is why said liberals (per your line in the sand) … even the ones who self-identify as conservatives or moderates … end up voting Democratic. The Democrats are incentivized to move towards the center on policies (a good example is pushing for a public option as a healthcare plan, rather than going full bore for a government run single-payer system) … while Republicans, thinking that their failure is simply a failure of not being conservative enough, run from the center (opposing any increased participation by government in providing healthcare, while in back rooms talking about figuring out a way to get rid of Medicare and Medicaid altogether someday).
I don’t think the fact that Republicans have demonized the term liberal makes Democrats hesistant to identify as such in self-identification surveys.
Yet you conclude that many Democrats are liberals when they claim to be conservative or moderate. Interesting cognitive dislink.
36 SFTor1 // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:19 pm
It’s a funny thing with a faceless medium like an online forum.
I for one could have sworn that ireign was a woman, based on her style of argument and a certain insecurity and lack of self-worth that shines through. I am not saying at all that these are exclusively feminine traits, or even shared by most women. But when they express themselves very clearly in a person, it happens sometimes to be in a female.
Not that there is anything wrong with being a woman of course.
37 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:22 pm
sftor1 – don’t go all Barker on us! (Barker was quite obsessed with the gender of people on the list)
I’m reminded, however, of a joke:
It used to be said, that on the internet nobody can tell if you’re a dog.
Now on the internet – nobody cares if you’re a dog.
38 SFTor1 // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:23 pm
As for the discussion at hand, I think it is almost certain that the GOP will change a great deal over the near future. The conservative base is worthless to the GOP at this point. There are good examples of successful conservative parties in Europe. The GOP will undoubtedly crib a leaf or two, or a few hundred, out of their playbooks.
It is inevitable.
39 SFTor1 // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:24 pm
my apologies, balcone, and to you, ireign. I’m sure you are a fine strapping dude.
40 SFTor1 // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:25 pm
And now on the Internet, there’s more than a few who want you to be a dog.
41 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:29 pm
As I like to point out … were I born without a Y chromosome, had I been as fast a marathoner as I was in my youth, I would have been a very wealthy
manwoman.Now I’m thinking of another joke, involving a cowboy and a lesbian bar. But I shall digress too much if I keep following this track.
42 SFTor1 // Oct 27, 2009 at 10:05 pm
ireign, you need to have standing for insults to bite.
Rush Limbaugh was caught coming from the Dominican Republic with Viagra that was not prescribed to him in his luggage. Google “adult travel Dominican Republic”, and see what you find. The place is rife with commercial sex resorts. I am sure Rush was there for the scuba.
For that matter I never accused Limbaugh of anything. The point was that it was another red flag for NFL management.
43 SFTor1 // Oct 27, 2009 at 10:09 pm
and ireign, I am sure there will soon be a party that will appreciate your positions. (It will probably bear a name in the neighborhood of National Progress Party, The National Right, or some such.) I doubt that it will be the GOP however.
44 balconesfault // Oct 27, 2009 at 10:38 pm
I don’t think we are as conservative a nation
Well, clearly that’s true, given where you draw the line denoting “conservative”.
But think of this. The 40-hour work week. If an employer requires a non-exempt employee to work more than 40-hours in a week, they must be paid 1 1/2 times the employee’s base salary.
From a conservative standpoint, this should be anathema. It is a clear cut intrusion by government into the private sector. But it’s also phenomenally popular, and probably 8 in 10 Americans would oppose any attempts to change this part of our social contract.
45 TMLutas // Oct 27, 2009 at 10:56 pm
While 72% of Republicans are conservatives, <100% of conservatives are members of the GOP. David Frum’s implication is all conservatives are Republican party members. At this point I would guess that the minority of conservatives are GOP members.
Instead of trying to derive how many conservatives are out there, why don’t we actually look at the polling asking the question. Is anybody polling this? Oh, Gallup does and does it every year. Their June 2009 poll pegs conservatives as 40% of the population. Moderates are 35% and liberals are 21%.
The bleak future that I see is how the GOP is not capturing the 26.6% of conservatives Gallup is identifying that are not members of the party. That’s a huge chunk of voters that should be in the GOP’s tents but aren’t.
46 el polacko // Oct 28, 2009 at 1:19 am
the splintering is already in full gear. i consider myself a conservative republican because i believe in smaller government, lower taxes, individual liberty, and free enterprise. however, i also believe that equal marriage rights are a conservative value and that a woman’s reproduction is between her (and her spouse) and her doctor which, apparently, means that i am not what is currently being called a “true conservative”. now i’m a ‘rino’ or some such nonsense and i must be driven from the party. how is this a winning strategy for the GOP ? my party is kicking folks like me to the curb in the name of ‘purity’, and with no viable third party in sight, it’s looking like the dems have it wrapped up for the foreseeable future. now that even pravda is reporting that the u.s. is going socialist, this is a frighteningly helpless and depressing circumstance in which i find myself.
47 Orion // Oct 28, 2009 at 1:41 am
It’s not as simple as “there’s more of us than them!”. Consider also the relative concentration of liberals vs. conservatives in this country, the old “Red vs. Blue” map. Effectively this country is Conservative because there’s a majority or plurality of conservatives everywhere except the most densely packed urban areas; there there are “supermajorities” of liberals/left-leaning voters. While locally quite strong, the left only wins national elections when they can convince the somewhat apathetic moderates to turn out for them and the conservatives sit on their hands whining their candidates are “soft” on their core conservative values.
48 DFL // Oct 28, 2009 at 9:20 am
All politics has an ebb and flow. Republicans have had two bad elections but will have a good election in 2010. If President Obama is re-elected in 2012, the Republicans will have a great election in 2014. If one recalls the Age of Reagan, the republicans had many more Senate and House seats in 1981 than they did when Dutch left the Oval Office in 1989.
49 Churl // Oct 28, 2009 at 9:24 am
balconesfault, ottovbs, “Perhaps more like Ginsberg. That’s Allen, not Ruth Bader…”
I’d say more like a modern deQuincey after swallowing at one gulp a month’s ration of Hopium.
50 sinz54 // Oct 28, 2009 at 9:51 am
The increase in the number of respondents to the Gallup poll who call themselves “conservative” is simply a reaction to the liberalism of the Obama administration, and disquiet at the slow pace of reform. It’s just the mirror image of the increase in self-identified Independents in 2006-2008, as they fled the GOP in disgust over Bush’s policies.
IMHO, the only polls that give useful information for a party are those on specific issues. And what Gallup found is that now, as compared with a year ago, Americans did take more “conservative” positions on economic issues and global warming. But not so much on foreign policy and not on those hot-button social issues like gay marriage.
The lesson should NOT be, as Kristol thinks, that we should double down on the hard core right-wing positions of the GOP base. Rather, the GOP should learn from polls like this one to put together a positive economic program that might interest voters in 2010. Unemployment will still be high–Christina Romer admitted that–so the GOP has an opportunity here to sound a call for vibrant noninflationary economic growth (if they can figure out a policy to do that).
BUT the GOP has to make it clear that they welcome folks who might disagree with hard-core conservatives on other issues. They have got to stand up to their base and tell them to stop disparaging such folks as “RINOs” and “squishes” and “liberals” (an insult in their book). Who wants to join a party to endure insults and ostracism?
51 ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:07 am
ireign // Oct 27, 2009 at 9:59 pm
“sftor1-”I for one could have sworn that ireign was a woman, based on her style of argument and a certain insecurity and lack of self-worth that shines through.”
……..not a woman I think but definitely a big time Adler problem
“Funny, sftor1, I could have sworn you were a moron born with an extra chromosome based on your ridiculous posts. Actually, I haven’t taken anything you said seriously since you made your politically incorrect and inaccurate remark that was something of the effect as “people only go to the Dominican Republican for prostitution.”
………more Republican moderation and rationality?
52 Thanos // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:11 am
The dismaying thing about this is that the 14 percent conservative base is also going to diminish over the next few years, and since they have nothing to offer except bile and nihilism, they are driving potential new voters away. This is evidenced by the surge in numbers of third parties, the Libertarians are now at an all time high.
Gallup has a chart showing party affiliation, and you should note that the largest percent of the Republican base is very elderly. Over the next few presidential cycles many of them will pass on, but we are doing nothing to fill the bench. See this essay and accompanying chart where I worry that our strongest support is in age groups 66-86.
http://noblesseoblige.org/wordpress/2009/05/19/walking-to-the-elephant-graveyard/
53 ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:21 am
dfl // Oct 28, 2009 at 9:20 am
“All politics has an ebb and flow.”
………Undoubtedly true, but the ebbs can be much more extended than you suggest……..the conservatives have been out of power in Britain for about 14 years………….In the US the Democrats were basically in the ascendant from 1932 to 1980……..I really think you are ignoring societal, demographic, generational and geographic shifts which have been building for years and which are not working to the GOP’s advantage…..on the contrary they are bent on denying or rejecting them…….I certainly don’t think the GOP is going to fragment but it’s going into a period of eclipse because of the shifts I mentioned and internecine warfare……..ultimately these issues will be resolved and the GOP will return electoral viability but it will be achieved as it alway is by a move back to the center.
54 ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:34 am
……..The fatal flaw in these sort of polls is that the labels conservative, liberal and moderate are essentiably fungible…..they exist in the eye of the beholder, or in this case the person being polled……basically this renders them worthless other than as fodder for the political entertainment industry in which we are currently participating……they are certainly a poor guide to people’s voting intentions that are much more accurately captured in more purely party political polls and the message from these is fairly clear and consistent.
55 Thanos // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:38 am
I like party identification: it’s a clearer indicator. You can see that R’s are shrinking, L’s and I’s are increasing. Trying to be “more or most conservative” will not stop that bleeding.
56 ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:40 am
orion // Oct 28, 2009 at 1:41 am
“Effectively this country is Conservative because there’s a majority or plurality of conservatives everywhere except the most densely packed urban areas;”
………most Americans live in urban areas……inner cities or the burbs……outside the South/Utah these went overwhelmingly for Obama and the Democrats
57 ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 10:58 am
…….On the subject of Polls……here’s a couple of recent poll question from Zogby whose polls are sometimes quoted here by conservatives:
“Federal Communications Commission Chief Diversity Czar Mark Lloyd wants the FCC to force good white people in positions of power in the broadcast industry to step down to make room for more African-Americans and gays to fill those positions. Do you agree or disagree that this presents a threat to free speech?”
“The Obama administration recently declared that the White House would treat the Fox News Channel as an ‘opponent,’ and declared that Fox News is not a ‘legitimate
news organization.’ Do you agree or disagree that this is an attempt by the Obama administration to silence dissent?”
……..I particularly liked the “good white people”……It’s really hard to make this stuff up……..God knows who he was doing them for but I think we can see the result they wanted!
58 Differing Interpretations of the GOP’s Future « Astroturf Superstar // Oct 28, 2009 at 11:23 am
[...] Frum, however, comes to a very different conclusion. Instead, he sees a bleak future for the GOP: So while Bill’s predictions of continuing conservative/populist dominance within the GOP look [...]
59 balconesfault // Oct 28, 2009 at 11:45 am
………most Americans live in urban areas……inner cities or the burbs……outside the South/Utah these went overwhelmingly for Obama and the Democrats
Moreover – look at this map, and click on the County Leaders tab
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html
note that in Texas, for example, Travis County (Austin) and Tarrant County (Dallas) are dark blue … Harris County (Houston) and Bexar County (San Antonio) are light blue. Zoom into Georgia – you’ll find the counties for Atlanta, Savannah, Macon, Augusta are all blue. Alabama? Mobile and Huntsville remain red, Birmingham and Montgomery blue. Mississippi? The county with Jackson is blue. Arkansas? Little Rock and Pine Bluff are in blue counties.
As urban populations continue to grow in these states – in no small part due to migrants from the north – their influence on statewide voting will correspondingly grow.
And yes – that Zogby quasi push-poll is a remarkable “what are they thinking” moment.
60 ottovbvs // Oct 28, 2009 at 12:18 pm
balconesfault // Oct 28, 2009 at 11:45 am
…….You’re right about population shifts pushing some states further left…..Florida is going solid blue mark my words now that Cuba is fading as an issue
…….The Zogby poll is so bizarre one almost wonders if it’s a prank but apparently it’s kosher
61 Churl // Oct 28, 2009 at 2:23 pm
ottovbs, says, “I particularly liked the “good white people….”
Yes, the phrase encompasses the sort of thought that a “typical white person” (e.g. somebody’s grandma) would respond to immediately.
62 balconesfault // Oct 28, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Certainly when I was young, growing up in Texas, I heard the phrase “that’s mighty white of you” used many times.
63 Churl // Oct 28, 2009 at 3:47 pm
balconesfault, in your Texas days was the phrase “that’s mighty white of you” pejorative, as it seems to be now?
64 balconesfault // Oct 28, 2009 at 6:45 pm
I’ve never heard of it being used as a pejorative in any context, at any time.
Although now it does make the person using it look bad, fwiw.
Back then it was most certainly considered a compliment.
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