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I like walkable urban centers, so I want to take a hopeful view of this Washington Post report about the future of Tysons Corner. Unfortunately for my belief, the story ends with one of the most foolish quotes I’ve ever read about the future of the American city, from Joel Garreau, normally a smart guy.
With broadband, employees no longer need to physically be transported to work. He sees Americans moving to scenic, ideal locations such as the mountains of Montana or the hills of Santa Fe. Garreau splits his time between Fauquier County and Arizona.
“What you’re seeing now is what I call the Santa Fe-ing of the world, or the Santa Fe-ing of America,” he said. “The fastest growth you’re seeing is in small urban areas in beautiful places, because now you’ve got e-mail and Web and laptops and iPhones and all that jazz.”
Here’s one thing we know about the America of the future: It’s going to contain lots and lots and lots of poor, low-skilled people – in percentage terms, many more than the America of, say, 1995. And the America of 1995 already contained tens of millions of poor, low-skilled people. Those people won’t be telecommuting from Santa Fe. If your vision of the future of the American city does not include those people, it’s going to be missing a very large fact.
Which is why, when you look at the actual list of the actual top 10 fastest-growing US cities of 2000-2010, you see no examples of small scenic places (unless you count Orlando, Florida, which I sure wouldn’t). Instead you see:
1. Houston: 1,231,393 individuals added over past decade
2. Dallas-Fort Worth: 1,210,229
3. Atlanta: 1,020,879
4. Riverside, Calif.: 970,030
5. Phoenix: 941,011
6. Washington, D.C.: 785,987
7. Las Vegas: 575,504
8. New York: 574,107
9. Miami: 557,071
10. Orlando, Fla.: 489,850
The growth of course is driven in almost every case by immigration, rather than internal migration. Meanwhile, the sort of places that Garreau likes are doing their best to control and slow growth precisely because they do not want to end up looking in any way more like Houston or Riverside, California.
“Here’s one thing we know about the America of the future: It’s going to contain lots and lots and lots of poor, low-skilled people – in percentage terms, many more than the America of, say, 1995.”
Sadly, we may never be able to recover the prosperity of those halcyon Clinton years. If we can’t, and if Mr. Frum’s prediction is true, it will be the direct result of the determined efforts of one of our two major political parties – the one that sees Mr. Frum’s prediction as a desirable outcome.
It’s going to take that very large underclass to support the lifestyles of the top 0.1% of the population after they have accumulated most of America’s wealth. The resulting oligarchy will resemble former Central American banana republics, or perhaps America’s Old South.
What it will likely resemble, and what the top 1% want it to resemble, is the height of the Gilded Age.
It’s only a matter of time before repealing child labor laws becomes a fashionable cause among the right wing. That way, the whole family can go to work together!
Dude, where have you been? Google “Repeal Child Labor Laws” to see just how many people are pushing this.
I might be naive in saying this – but it does a disservice to the Right to think that they would honestly favor the repealing of Child Labor Laws in any great number — despite what a few crazies might advocate.
Uh, DF, you might want to go by *percentage* growth instead of *absolute* growth. Check out this list and see exactly how true the writer’s claims were:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2011/real_estate/1103/gallery.Fastest_growing_metro_areas/index.html
Bend, OR
Raleigh, NC
Austin, TX
etc
However, I do agree that the writer of the article is either wrong or at the very least early on his/her claims. I live in one of those idealistic little towns (Madison, WI), and when I was job-searching a few years ago I tried to pitch the “working remotely” concept to several companies and was turned down due to the fact that they wanted employees to be *in* the office. Skype, smartphones, email, etc all still weren’t the equivalent of having someone in the same room, across the table and being able to talk to them directly. There might come a time when that changes, but not anytime soon…
I agree entirely*. Cormac McCarthy can live and work in Santa Fe. As can someone who designs iPhone apps and sells them himself. But for 99% of the working population, you need to meet face to face with the client or the boss from time to time, either through custom or necessity.
Which, actually, is a GOOD thing. Imagine something that can be done 100% remotely, something that is completely location-independent. Want to make your living doing that? Well, brace yourself, because you’ll be competing with guys in Delhi for the work.
I volunteer with little local non-profit. They assigned me the task of getting them a logo. I went to a website which matches up clients with free-lance designers, and posted my description of what I wanted, with a few photos, sketches, and examples. 12 different people from all over the world bid for the job. Within 72 hours I had something which matched the board’s wishes so exactly they actually squealed with delight when I showed it to them. The guy who did it lives in Sri Lanka and charged me $100.
Moral of the story: work that can be outsourced to a telecommuter living in the hills above Santa Fe can also be outsourced at a tenth of the price to a telecommuter living in a third world country.
*Well, almost entirely. My only quibble is whether Mad-town actually qualifies as an idyllic location. Because I’ve been then during the winter. Dear me…
You have touched on one of the most important questions which needs solving if our cities are to maintain a good quality of life for everyone.
Unemployment is ranging around 16 percent, at present.
But if efficiency continues to rise as it surely will, then what will cities do with excess workers?
Surely we must solve this conundrum before we can reach our goal of making our cities truly great.
Here is one small solution:
Instead of serving coffee in full size china cups, or demitasse, we should reduce the volume of each cup to about 1/4 of normal. Then we can employ 4 separate waiters to serve each coffee drinker.
But if a sizable fraction of our US/Canadian city dwellers are either unemployed or competing with those guys in Mumbai for wages, then our cities are doomed. Might just as well hop on the next plane to Bombay and join the Far Madding Crowd.
The problem is, almost everyone in power is totally in favor of outsourcing.
Maybe they just respond to big money and nothing else. I also think there might be a few who genuinely think that lifting third world citizens out of poverty is worth it if the only ill effect is rising unemployment in the U.S.
All my life I’ve been hearing what a scandal it was that the U.S. had such a disproportionate share of the world’s wealth. Now it’s beginning to level out.
What the hell did you think it was going to be like, people? Did you think we’d continue to be privileged while “they” got more prosperous?
Yep, I agree. David is a bit off base looking at absolute growth. Even in terms of growth trends, the top 5 states since 2000 are:
Nevada – 30.96%
Arizona – 27.65%
Utah – 24.07%
Georgia – 19.43%
Idaho – 18.94%
Hardly first tier urban states (and Nevada is a bit of an anomaly of course). However, he is correct, I think, that many rural areas are beginning to look at growth trends more critically. Where I live, the influx of larger homes on smaller tracts of land led the county to rezone so that no new homes can be placed on less than 20 acres.
I work in the tech industry. For the most part, companies only allow highly-skilled (read “in demand”) workers and management to telecommute. And many companies even in the tech industry don’t allow telecommuting at all — unless they’ve already outsourced half of their workers to India. I suppose they are “telecommuting.” So, as usual, what is described as a “trend” and the “America of the future” probably only applies to the top 10% of the population, if that. The Real Americans, however, will be kept barefoot, pregnant, and quasi-illiterate in the kitchen.
Where all these telecommuting things break down, imo, is over the concept of staff development and mentoring.
If you have a cadre of highly skilled, accomplished professionals, they can certainly function via e-mail, calls, webcasts, etc.
When you’re taking a group of kids with <5 years experience and turning them into a team which can really accomplish something … the value of having them working next to one another, with a manager who can sit with and guide them directly there, is irreplaceable.
Why not make America’s cities so great to live in that nobody would wish to leave???
Also:
The larger the city, then the faster pedestrians walk. The faster they walk, then the healthier they become.
The healthier they become, then the more productive they become. But still, you gotta fill the American cities with the smartest and most industrious people on earth, those guys from Hong Kong.
It has been said, Hong Kongers have an average IQ of about 107. (And after SARS, about 108)
If we truly wish to compete with Hong Kong in improving our major US cities, then we should strive for at least an average IQ of about 110 across the board. Anyone who has spent time driving around in Mexico, or entering Mexico City, will have noticed that there are bumps/mounds built up across the road which ones car must ride over before entering any Mexican city. The height of the mounds in the road roughly correlates to the size of the city. Mexico City has the highest “mounds” in the road before entering the city.
But American cities do not need road mounds to be great. All that is needed is a sign stating, “Whoever enters these city gates shall be educated”. And anyone who does not wish to be educated, should take a detour to Hoboken, or Newark, NJ, your kind of town.
Seriously, though, there must be a positive correlation between the average level of education in a city and the habitability of a city. Otherwise, why would so many people also love Vienna?
Make education free in any given city, then mothers will send their kids to soak up good education, and this will improve the quality of life far faster than any other public works program known to man.
And anyone who chooses not to pursue a 4 year degree, should be taught to make fantastic pizza pies so that every city dweller might enjoy the best quality of life.
You start off with an excellent question and follow it with (I hope) a tongue in cheek answer.
It’s not intelligence, it’s civilized behavior. If you rent an apartment instead of owning a house, you have a right to uninterrupted sleep without loud parties or music. You have a right to neighbors who won’t deface the walls with graffiti. If you are willing to use public space instead of owning your own yard, you have a right to go there and not have obnoxious people disturb your peace. You have a right to have your possessions respected. You have a right to walk down the street and not be panhandled
Hm. “Poor low skilled immigrants”. Would’nt that be the New York, Chicago,Philadephia, and Boston of 100 years and more ago? Sure there were artisans among them, as there are now, but then we saw immigration as a plus and believed in a well funded public education system. Yours is the foolish quote, David. And it feeds the mantra of the nativists, no wonder Smarg likes it.
It was seen as a plus, sure. But that was also a time when virtually no labor laws of any sort existed, nor was there really much of a concept of ‘illegal’ immigration. This was when robber barons and factory owners OPENLY wanted cheap immigrant labor, and they didn’t care if the public was angered by that.
These days, they have to be a little more selective if how they express these desires. But they still exist.
Gosh, Mr Mod! I find myself becoming the (self-) designated wet blanket or official corrector here and I don’t much enjoy it but when you say “we saw immigration as a plus” 100 yrs ago you are not really accurate. The period 1900-1930 was like a high point of immigration. Big northern cities like New York actually came to have a majority of their population 1st and 2nd generation immigrants. There was a civil war in Mexico that pushed millions of immigrants to the southwest. There was the beginning of the ‘Great Migration’ of African Americans from the Jim Crow and agricultural South. The US was awash with immigrants.
It was also the era that saw ‘artisans’ mostly go away (except the building trades, of course) because factories were perfected. Blacksmith shops and seamstresses/tailors and such all succumbed to the factory. So the immigrants filled the factory jobs and became the earliest labor organizers. They lived in slums and became the earliest social agitators. The ‘good people’ of America resisted both movements vigorously and included anti-immigrant sentiment in their platforms.
It was an era that saw forced deportations of millions of Mexicans, the era of the ‘Yellow Peril’, the era that saw the KuKluxKlan reach it’s peak, the era of the Palmer raids and Sacco and Vanzetti. During the beginning of the Depression, California actually tried to close it’s border to the “Okies.” (can you imagine having to pass a border checkpoint to move to California? It actually happened.)
The 1920s were when the first laws restricting immigration severely were passed. (Well, somewhat earlier for Chinese and Japanese immigrants.) One hundred years ago was really not such a great time to be an immigrant. We forget that many millions of people came here, worked and saved money and went back home as soon as they could.
I promise I’m going to try to quit doing this. I promise. Really. And this time I really mean it.
Johnny, is this a poor attempt at a “bad white man” post? If so, it is lame.
Very lame.
You know I’m one of those fossils that actually recommends dead-tree-things called books to other people. There is one that you ought to read, brother Smarg. It’s “How the Irish Became White”. Essentially the story is how the Irish were equated with swathier Italians and Greeks until some of — well, ‘us’ since I am of Irish geneology — became politically connected and made lots of money with dubious endeavors. Think of old Joe Kennedy. That gave the Irish the standing to become enemies of African Americans. Then the Irish became ‘magically’ equal somehow to the WASPs who were up ’til then the ‘good Americans’.
The fact learned is that “race” is a sociological fact but not a meaningful genetic or biological fact.
And ‘bad white men’? Why are you paranoid?
And where is my lawnmower?!
The key difference that Frum constantly hints at but will not mention to save his respectability is IQ. The Irish and Germans in the first wave, and the Eastern and Southern Europeans in the second wave, had average IQs in the 100 range, comparable to the original WASPs. For them, education, assimilation, improvements in the circumstances of life enabled them to live up to their full genetic potential, thus creating the American “myth” (as in national story, rather than falsehood).
But the Hispanics have a significantly lower average IQ. The “myth” is wrongly thought to apply to them, but it does not because no matter how ideal the environmental circumstances they are presented with, they will NEVER, as a whole, net and overall (regardless of inspiring counter-trend anecdotes), catch up to the white population.
I do so love that Republicans go to so much effort to ensure we brown people never stop despising them. History continues to churn out Hitlers and Stalins, Sinn Feins, Polish, Hungarian, Czech and Croation dictator, despots, murdered, and terrorists but as long as they’re white guys they will always be suprior to the mud people.
LOL. I’ve lived in Texas and New Mexico as well as the Dakotas, Nebraska and Oklahoma. I’d be happy to round up a group of random Hispanics and pit them in an IQ contest against a random group of European-Americans from rural America any day.
I live in one of these desirable small cities: Portland, OR. We are seeing a large influx of people from the Mid West and California. And it is becoming a tourist destination for people from New York, some of which decide to stay. We are in fear of losing the rugged individuality that defines this place and makes us a bit of a paradox. Left leaning but fiercely self reliant. There is still a bit of a frontier mentality out here in the rural areas.
At first they were brought in by the low cost of housing, but its the lifestyle that keeps them. Political climate aside there is still a real yearning to be near the city center or the more affluent West side of the metropolitan area.
Technology allows trans-portability of worker’s duties and daily job interactions, but we also want access to services and businesses that cluster in the more densely populated areas of the city.
I would have to believe New York or Atlanta or Los Angeles will still be appealing for the culture and societal connections that are lacking in smaller or more rural areas.
By the way, for those of YOU looking to visit Portland, OR and the entire Pacific Northwest for the first time, its my duty to inform you and my pleasure to warn you, it RAINS HERE EVERY DAY! You probably wouldn’t like it and EVERYONE drives a Prius or rides a bike and we would vote Karl Marx if he ran for city council.
You shouldn’t come. You really wouldn’t like it.
Did I mention it rains EVERY DAY?
And you dont like outsiders so forget about starting a business.
“The rain continued. It was a hard rain, a perpetual rain, a sweating and steaming rain; it was a mizzle, a downpour, a fountain, a whipping at the eyes, an undertow at the ankles; it was a rain to drown all rains and the memory of rains. It came by the pound and the ton, it hacked at the jungle and cut the trees like scissors and shaved the grass and tunneled the soil and molted the bushes. It shrank men’s hands into the hands of wrinkled apes; it rained a solid glassy rain, and it never stopped.”
I love the rain.
I almost tested with Rod Steiger to play the Illustrated Man.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1mcBfMZal0&feature=related
You’re describing a phenomenon known well in places like Texas, Washington, and Idaho: liberals fleeing their failed communities, fleeing from the disastrous socialist policies that destroy communities, moving to places that are still somewhat livable. The sad thing is that they bring the same liberal mindset that destroyed the public schools and urban areas where they fled.
Hypocrites, they are.
I don’t see how your example rings true? Beyond a subjective measure that is. But the bogeyman argument applied to an opposition isn’t something I buy into.
Facts however with citation that is neutral or generally accepted are ALWAYS appreciated.
Did veritas mention the RAIN?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1mcBfMZal0&feature=related
Veritas speaks the truth. Part of the Illustrated Man was filmed in his hometown, Portland, Oregon. The rain does drive people MAD.
“It will be dry.
It will be warm.
There will be the Sun.
And there will be….Women!”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1mcBfMZal0&feature=related
Note to FF editors and owners – you did a very good thing by adding the boilerplate regarding content standards. It has already curbed this site’s most hate-filled ignorant racist.
Now can you introduce an “ignore” button, which will automatically hide posts from from persons which the user considers to be just annoying time wasters with nothing to contribute? The clutter they create is a hindrance to following the flow of the discussion.
No “ignore” button for me, please.
I am a fast speed reader.
I like to read everything.
And I find almost all comments on FrumForum pretty interesting.
I truly do not believe that commenters would be reading FrumForum if they were not interested in what the editors and all the other commenters had to say.
Rigidity in ones thinking is something to be avoided.
Just like the Portland, Oregon rain.
Watusie, you and Terry and many others are just as full of personal attacks as anyone else. You are in no position to get high and mighty.
What are you talking about? Identify for me where I said or inferred anything about “personal attacks”.
I telecommute between L.A., New York and San Francisco. Why do you think you see me on here all the time.
Great way of working if you can get it.
Someone has to drive the public transports, haul the garbage, and do all the other filthy tasks that can’t be outsourced to India.
Yet.
Better to say, though, Mr. Bottoms, that all India’s filthy tasks can’t be outsourced to the United States of America, YET.
Just keep waving that flag of yours, pls.
The fluttering might hide the fact that people in India do not wish to perform America’s filthy tasks.
The future of big North American cities is urban, not suburban. When oil reaches $200 a barrel later in the decade, we will see a strong movement to restore middle class living to the so-called inner city. Some cities do well already. Toronto has a huge downtown middle class, an antidote to one of the worst commutes of any city its size on the continent.
You wrongly presume that oil is the only way to move around. But alcohol fuel made from natural gas, coal, or biomass is cheap and abundant, and cannot have its supply constrained by any cartel. Combine that with an electric engine for short distance driving, and you can continue the modern American lifestyle with little or no alteration.
The solution to David’s problem of “lots and lots and lots of poor, low-skilled people” is to means test the reproductive rights of women, along the following lines:
Less than 400 percent of poverty: one live birth authorized per decade
Over 400 percent of poverty: two live births
$250,000 or above: sky’s the limit.
Absent such maternalistic measures, the urban aethetics of America will be less pleasurable for the wealthy and moderate Republicans, and that we cannot have.
Emma, your irony is very much appreciated!
Also, at the risk of having Ms. Primrose back on my tail, then I would like to suggest a very good internet primer lecture series which has been provided FREE by Yale University. Just bring your brain!
http://freevideolectures.com/Course/2468/Global-Problems-of-Population-Growth/1
To my way of thinking, there is just one reason we should pay money to support universities such as Yale. Only to enlighten us.
This is the first in a series of one of a kind lectures which takes us through a basic understanding of fertility and population, by examining cultures around the world. You will not find this kind of lecture in most universities, VERY UNFORTUNATELY!
I think that we should all be somewhat indebted to ===Prof Robert Wyman===. (No. I did NOT say robert hymen)
Also, this lecture series is offered by the Yale University server which will provide you with a better viewing experience.
Sorry, Emma, if you are already far more advanced in your thinking and you may not feel the need to watch this lecture series. But from my perspective, I always think that I can often use some reinforcement of my thoughts and ideas. And I am very grateful to the Prof for making this lecture series available to all of us!
Also, Emma, please do not worry. The first lecture is sort of a dumbed down introduction of the course. It gets better, QUICKLY, by lecture 2 and lecture 3.
I highly recommend this lecture to everyone, Phd’s, Idiots, and, especially, bank robbers.
————————-
PS, Emma, Jane Austen is also one of my favorite authors.
Or did I mix up your screen name with that of Emma Schwarzenegger?
One of the problems is, and I think the GOP is far more guilty of this offence than the the White House is, they have no plans for anything. Long term, integrated energy policy? No. Housing and urban development? Dont have. Eduction? Not really, beyong, lets break the teacher’s unions. Nothing. I personally have a solution for everything. I may be more wrong than right, but I can offer a more or less cohearant policy on anything. I think Mr. Obama also has a genuine, rational answer for almost any question. And to really get out thier on the ice, I think the Democrat House is brighter and more ideas oriented than the GOP. Sorry, Republicans, but that what I think. So why cant the candidates touch in a meaningful way on any topic beyond the most cursory exclaimations on immigration, taxation (all against), regulation. They are just all so superficial. If any of these flannel suits can match wits with Mr. Obama I havent seen that yet. Except maybe Herman.
I work for a tech company based in Florida. I live in Texas. My coworkers (including management) live in seven other states spread all across the US, and three other countries.
This is the wave of the future. There is no limit when hiring the best developers. They can work from home and don’t have to relocate. (Except by necessity we can only hire productive, self starters. We don’t see that as a liability, however.)
Just curious, greg, regarding what your reasons might be to not hire 100 percent from outside the US? Are the guys/gals from East Europe and India not up to snuff?
This sort of distributed strategy to develop software has been working well for at least 20 years.
But now, this strategy no longer works well. It does not work well UNLESS one is working on open source projects for limited or no compensation.
If you wish to compete with those guys from Bombay, developing proprietary software, then you really need to get used to being paid a Bombay salary, and not just enough to buy one bottle of Bombay Gin every other week.
The owner of the software company always does fine. But the guys who do the grunt work do not get paid a fair salary.
No, in general the cheap programmers aren’t up to snuff. You get what you pay for. We develop high end applications (cutting edge AI backed up by our own distributed computing platform) so we need high end talent to develop it. I’m not saying that talent resides only in the US, but it certainly doesn’t reside in the sweatshop dime-a-dozen code to spec crowd.
But even in the less high end development I don’t think your belief holds. Those that rely on cheap code producers get cheap code, and more and more shops are learning this lesson as time goes on. The lesson has to be relearned over and over, to be sure, but I think we’re nearing “peak outsourcing” in the IT realm.
Greg,
Thank you very much for explaining this to me. This is really an eyeopener. What you tell us also has implications for so many things, such as US military technology. It is great to hear good news such as this.
But then the next obvious question might be why, when so many people from China, India and other places, are studying at major US universities, does US software technology still stay so far ahead of the pack?
And why cannot India, for example, duplicate the same cutting edge software creativity in Mumbai? It does not seem very logical, on the surface, that they could not.
Also, what about the Canadians and the guys from Ireland and the guys from Cambridge, UK. What is different about these very smart people that they cannot attain the same level of programming that you can achieve in the US?
Yours is a very interesting comment. Tks.
There’s always work if you have top skills in the latest hot language/device combination. Because mobile is tied so tightly to design and culture it’s hard to outsource it completely and because the LA/SF/NY entertainment axis means talent is concentrated in those cities, salaries even for remote work is damn good.
You just have to be ready to switch gears.
Android is hot right now, but Windows 8 is a good bet for another paradigm shift over the next three years. So having abandoned Microsoft a decade ago it’s time to switch back to take advantage of the Nokia push Redmond is about to unleash.
My resume as of now means I have little to fear for at least another 10 years then I’m long since retired.
The bus driver making $12hr at BWI however, not so lucky.
Mr. Bottoms,
I think what you meant to say is that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
A good lesson we can all take from recent events, is that one should never get too cocky about ones invincibility. Just a very few short years ago, our world was devastated by a world war.
Before you get too cocky, Mr. Bottoms, why not re-read tales from Dresden, the fire bombing of Tokyo, and just how one might slice off an arm in one fell swoop, in Sierra Leone.
But, Mr. Bottoms, are you safe?
Is it safe?
Here is a Blue Sky tune right up your alley, Mr. Bottoms.
Ella Fitzgerald http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr6EldSFwOI
Hope you will dig it and forget about Pol Pot while you are about it.
Because you seem like a very Blue Sky kind of guy.
WTF??
Interesting to see Riverside CA on the list. I wonder how many people know Riverside was founded by a socialist cooperative.
“If your vision of the future of the American city does not include those people, it’s going to be missing a very large fact.”
Avoiding reality has been the plan all along – that’s why the mega xburg came along. The “smartest” of these communites usually reside adjacent to the county where the American City belongs. All of these “beautiful” places are convenient to the amenities that only large cities can provide like hospitals, world class symphonies, universities, sports venues. Convenient without the essential tax consequenses which now are huge because of the size of this tax dodger population.
The question for these folks is how long can they expect to enjoy these amentias without great cost like personally being robbed or perhaps a bridge collapse.
We will not get past this until the “me” draft dodging generation is planted in the ground. They aren’t even committed to their families -wives, husbands or children why would we expect them to be responsible to the community. They never have been sacrificial. It’s me,me,me the people not WE.
Dante, you hit on two areas that I, also, thought of-
Austin TX has had a 20% increase in population in the last decade. It’s also one of the few cities that I know of where the flight is inward. Downtown neighborhoods are the hottest markets in the city- the closer to the busy, urban core the more desirable especially for young families, tech professionals, younger empty nesters- the latter two being some of the most mobile-able people in the country.
Bend, Oregon, on the other hand is a cautionary tale for every “mobile” person who thinks small town living is for them and is not atypical for what happens in these idyllic areas. It’s a fantastic example of the real effects of the “Santa Fe-ing of America”, only I’ve always called it the Locust Factor. They’re a group of mobile, wealthy people who alight on certain small areas for their beauty, culture and remote locales.
At first, it’s all good. Locusts spend a boatload of money as they stay at local hotels, buy property, entertain and bring their friends in. A certain number of less wealthy, but still mobile, people follow them. It’s the new Utopia for those who can work “anywhere”, and these hotspots also get a boost in tourism from those who want a taste of “the buzz”. Often, the fabric of the community changes from idyllic to hectic as small towns try to accommodate a large influx of people. But the money flows and locals roll with it, expanding their businesses, passing new bonds for bigger schools and expanding city services.
But then…A new “Santa Fe” is on the horizon. The Locusts get bored, they move on or go back to their “real” urban homes and take the money they drop into the local economy with them. In their wake, they leave for the locals extremely inflated real estate prices, typically higher property taxes, school closures and a struggling municipal government and business climate built to deal with the traffic and money the Buzz provided. Often during the run-up (as happened in Santa Fe itself as well as Jackson Hole and other areas) farmers and ranchers are priced out of the market since the price per acre goes through the roof. Many generations-old farmers and ranchers have been put out of business in these areas by the Locust Factor. And the less wealthy but still “mobile” folks? Caught in the negative effects, they find themselves living in remote, expensive locations with declining services and are less able to respond when circumstances change and they need to live closer to urban centers of economic activity. “Mobility” is lost.
When the economy is particularly bad, some of the Locusts still sell (dump) because what do they care? It’s a tax situation for their accountants, not a major part of their portfolio. And the locals? They, along with the less wealthy “mobile” people who followed, are left with properties bought at zenith prices whose values now have plummeted and/or carry artificially high property taxes. To add insult to injury, they’re also left with retail businesses that they’ve expanded to deal with the increased traffic that struggle when the Buzz goes away.
You might call them Locusts. But others might call them Buzzards.
Growth is the premier Ponzi scheme, and it’s marvelous to see conservatives touting it while they bash Social Security.
A++ Made me laugh. Then cry just a bit, for the truth of it.
Joel Garreau’s Disconnect with Reality : Lawyers, Guns & Money // Sep 26, 2011 at 12:24 pm
[...] only person who has taken swipes at Garreau in the last day. Writers ranging from Matt Yglesias to David Frum have noted how stupid Garreau’s statements were (though the idea of Frum saying he likes [...]
Lesson learned the hard way: if you can do your job from home, someone can do your job from India (or elsewhere) for less than 10% of your salary.
Provided they own a MacBook Air, iPad, iPhone, Android tablet and $5,000 worth of software and can hop on a plane to close a deal at a moment’s notice.
I’m not working in sweatpants all the time and I spend every moment not coding prospecting for more work.
I work at working from home.