Analysts of the Middle East (including Eric Trager on this site) have recently forecast a third “intifada,” or Palestinian uprising, against the Israelis. Sunday’s clashes between rock-hurling Palestinian youth and Israeli police at the Temple Mount in the old city of Jerusalem seem to underscore this. Moreover, Hamas leader Khaled Meshal, speaking from his base in Syria, is fanning the flames, insisting that the future of Jerusalem will be settled “on the ground of confrontation and resistance.”
While renewed conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis is perennially possible, there may be another conflict brewing. Indeed, a new “intra-fada” between the Palestinian factions may be on the horizon.
Tensions between the two largest Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, are running high. In 2007, Hamas conquered the Gaza Strip, killing and maiming dozens of Fatah members in the process. Since then, the two Palestinian territories have split into two quasi-states led by two quasi-governments: the Iranian-backed Hamastan (or Gazastan) and the Western-backed Fatahland (or West-Bankistan). Hamas and Fatah occasionally clash, and reconciliation talks have repeatedly failed.
Now, the Palestinian Maan News Agency reports that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas plans to run for reelection on the Fatah ticket. He scheduled elections for January 24, 2010. Hamas, however, rejects the legitimacy of the elections, and will likely not participate. Renewed conflict between these two factions is a real possibility.
The Obama administration, however, has elected not to make this a high-priority issue. This is a mistake. If the Palestinians again descend into war, or even if they simply remain at odds, they are still divided. Indeed, there is no Palestinian interlocutor – the most basic ingredient needed for peace talks. Until the administration addresses this, its Middle East peace initiative simply cannot succeed.
4 responses so far
1 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 10:43 am
……..”The coming Palestinian civil war?”…….it never stopped but just moved into a cold war period……I’ve no doubt what the outcome is going to be and it won’t one to the US’ liking
2 LFC // Oct 27, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Can anybody here provide a bit of insight into just what level of forces and in what locations each of the factions have? If Hamas is really only ascendant in Gaza, and Fatah is obviously only strong in the West Bank, it seems like a civil war would be logistically impossible.
3 LFC // Oct 27, 2009 at 3:12 pm
ireign said… It would be crazy for Israel to given over land (a tangential item) in exchange for recognition and peace if the majority or a large minority of the Palestinian population will still not recognize Israel and will be willing to continue to launch attacks on Israel.
I still think that things will get worse, and Israel will pick it’s own (defensible) borders. It will have to pull people out of some of the most far-flung settlements, and will have to extend the wall, but they can effectively create a two-state “solution” of their liking and leave the Palestinians to sink or swim on their own. Sure, the Palestinian will fire more rockets, but Israel can retaliate in kind, create an empty and enormous kill zone on the Palestinian side of the wall.
As much as I’d love to see it, I personally don’t believe that a negotiated two state settlement is in the cards. I don’t think any Palestinian leader will ever back off on the absolutely unreasonable demand of “right of return”.
4 ottovbvs // Oct 27, 2009 at 3:47 pm
2 ireign // Oct 27, 2009 at 2:38 pm
” there will need to be a Palestinian civil war in which”
……..the problem is that Hamas is going to win it…….in the skirmishes of the past couple of years Israel has put their finger on the scale to assist Fatah who are widely seen as corrupt and incompetent……..Needless to say all that the Israeli actions have done is to increase the clout of Hamas……….History has usually demonstrated it makes more sense to negotiate with the radicals.
4 lfc // Oct 27, 2009 at 3:12 pm
“It will have to pull people out of some of the most far-flung settlements, and will have to extend the wall, but they can effectively create a two-state “solution” of their liking and leave the Palestinians to sink or swim on their own. Sure, the Palestinian will fire more rockets, but Israel can retaliate in kind, create an empty and enormous kill zone on the Palestinian side of the wall.”
……..You’re assuming all this is taking place in a Israeli/Palestinian vacuum……it isn’t…….so they kill loads of Palestinians in totally disproportionate uses of force……this is an Israeli victory?…….Israel is strategically in the worst situation she has ever been in ……..she is more diplomatically isolated at the official level than she has ever been…….world opinion has undergone a tremendous shift in the past 15 years against her……the Arabs have learned how to use assymetric warfare to blunt Israeli military superiority…….and at least three highly competent and much more powerful adversaries have appeared on the scene (Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran) to replace the corrupt and ineffectual Fatah, Egypt and the oil states of the gulf………time is not on Israel’s side.
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