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“CHINA RATE RISE HITS GOLD AND OIL PRICES”
… gold fell 2.8 per cent to $1,333 per ounce, its largest decline since July
There’s a famous (surely apocryphal) story that Joseph Kennedy decided that the 1920s stock boom had peaked when he got a stock tip from his shoeshine boy.
Michael Lewis tells a story of the mortgage banker realizing that things had gone too far in the 2000s when he met a Las Vegas stripper who had bought five houses with no money down. Not five in a row – five at the same time.
Now the airwaves are full of ads for gold. After all – it’s never been worth zero, right?
Yet all those people who have bought gold above $1000 over the past year and a half – especially those poor souls who have paid the big premium to buy gold in coin form – need gold to levitate far, far above zero. Odds are: they will be very disappointed.
There is a financial question about the consequences of their disappointment. But there’s also an interesting cultural question: Will the credibility of the radio and TV hosts who tout gold survive a drop in the price of gold? How many Fox News viewers will lose how much if gold drops back to $1000? $800? $600? And when they discover that the extra premium you pay for buying gold coins shrivels when it comes time to sell?
Mr. Frum…. to what “credibility” do you refer?
Entertainers turned pundits turned investment experts have no credibility to begin with. Folks with credibility study and learn about the things to which they speak. Neither Beck nor Rush are learned regarding anything of which they speak.
Conservatives pushing a bubble that’s new. Not.
I bought gold in 2003–when it was $340 an ounce.
The U.S. is heading in the same direction Greece is–bankrupting under the weight of entitlements and pensions it no longer has the material wealth to pay off.
Greece had to adopt austerity as part of the European Union.
We’ll end up like the Weimar Republic.
I’m sticking with gold for the present.
If I see a real attempt to balance the Federal budget by raising the SS/Medicare retirement age to 70, THEN I might think about selling my gold.
But I’m not holding my breath.
Will the credibility of the radio and TV hosts who tout gold survive a drop in the price of gold?In a reality-based reality there would be a backlash. But that’s not where Fox and its friends operate. The gold hucksters will use its collapse as a reason to vilify someone else, the way your average fundamentalists see the devil or Muslims or Jews behind every misfortune.
If we’re talking about Glenn Beck, I think he’s switched from shilling gold to shilling survivalist gear.
Always stay one step ahead of the curve, you know.
The only reason why these jokers have credibility is because there are enough of us taken in by their constant snake-oil sales pitches to justify their doing so. The only reason why those Nigerian email scams keep working is because the spammers need only one sucker to fall for their “send me $5000 so you can hold $4 million of hidden tax-free money” to turn a profit. And they keep doing it.
The best way to stop snake-oil salesmen is to charge them with fraud and put them in jail.
If the price does drop 10 or 20%, and a lot of leveraged buyers lose a ton of money – I’m sure of one thing Fox Viewers will be unanimous in believing.
That whatever money they lost is Obama’s fault.
Wow I didn’t realize there was a premium on coins. Back when I looked at gold coins the premium was like $2 / oz or less for coin form. That being said, I think gold is a terrible terrible buy right now. CNBC’s bad advice hasn’t hurt their credibility any, so I don’t know what will happen to Fox.
Goldline is a sleazy company so I take it Sinz didn’t buy his gold from them. South Africa controls a huge supply of the gold market, it would take one crackpot like Mugabe in South Africa to send Gold prices plummeting if he decides to nationalize all the gold and sell it off to give money to his cronies. Imagine if Zimbabwe had huge Gold reserves. Gold would be worth much, much less now.
Much of what Frum perceives as a gold bubble forming in the past couple years is due to the drop in the dollar. In the past 2 years gold is up 70% in $USD and 65% in EUR. But gold is up only 20% in $AUD. What looks like a gold bubble is, in fact, the US dollar being decimated due to macroeconomic policies of the Fed and a complete lack of fiscal discipline in Washington.
Gold could pull back to $800US if the following things happen:
1. Federal Reserve announces it will terminate all QE programs and POMO operations, effectively immediately.
2. Federal Reserve raises interest rates and signals more rate increases to come.
3. US Government reduces annual budget deficit back to 3-5% of GDP, coupled with 3-5% real GDP growth.
In the reality-based world, we have:
1. Federal Reserve announcing what is essentially unlimited quantative easing, with a minimum of $1 trillion in QE in 2011
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-19/fed-to-buy-plenty-of-debt-if-needed-o-neill-says-tom-keene.html
2. Federal Reserve announcing that ZIRP will continue indefinitely. (ZIRP must continue indefinitely until our deficit is reduced).
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-signals-it-will-take-apf-1578578684.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
3. A 2010 US budget deficit of approx. $1.3T, with no indication it will drop anytime soon, and anemic economic growth.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cbo-sees-2010-us-deficit-topping-13-trillion-2010-08-19
Add another round of taxpayer-financed bank bailouts into the mix and the US dollar is not going up anytime soon. It is more likely that gold will be at $1600 in 2012 than at $800.
one note sally, david frum, once again bashing gold whilst promoting inflation… driving up the price of gold.
how do you people take it?
Having a little bit of gold to diversify and hedge against one set of risks makes sense. Having a lot of gold means that you are gambling, not investing.
My in-laws, having survived both the second world war and the subsequent Communist rule in Eastern Europe, have a stock of gold coins just in case. That makes sense. So does collecting gold coins as an expensive hobby. Investing in them not so much.
I never took political advice from rock stars; why should I take investment advice from political commentators?
It will cost you over $1250 an ounce…… but it has never been worth ZERO.
What a great selling point, give me a pound!
Not taking consumer/investment cues from the conservative talkers? You’re mising out.
I”ve hidden my gold coins that Beck so smartly told me to buy under my Sleep Number mattress (hey, it keeps Laura Ingraham sleeping like a baby even when gripped by her Socialist angst) which will be safely positioned in my house until I die, thanks to the reverse mortgage Fred Thompson told me about.. Cudos also to Michael Savage who told me that Cash4Gold is the ONLY one to trust when exchanging my jewelry by mail. Times are tough though, and I thank God that they all have told me about the best payday loan programs available so that I can keep those gold coins tucked…
Sinz54,
You should continue loading up on Beck’s gold. That should work out for you given your theory that the U.S. is going to be the same as Greece.
By the way Sinz54, do you actually have any idea about the fiscal state of Greece other than from the headlines you read?
Actually, Greece is a country that is pretty much close to your conservative thought. No one pays taxes there. Given you hatred of taxes, you should consider moving there.
armstp. I hate taxes too. I hate seeing money misspent and wasted. Do you, um, LIKE taxes? (Let me guess…you don’t pay taxes do you?)
TerryF98. What other bubbles are you referring to that were ‘pushed by Conservatives”?
Jeffry1:
“TerryF98. What other bubbles are you referring to that were ‘pushed by Conservatives”?”
Terry is more than capable of speaking for himself, but the most recent real estate bubble was not only pushed by conservatives, it was almost entirely created by them
Practicalgirl…how so? Explain your thesis please?
Practicalgirl” How was it that the “the most recent real estate bubble was not only pushed by conservatives, it was almost entirely created by them.” This is a fascinating statement.
Jeffry1,
Actually I have no problem paying my taxes and I think they are now too low, particularly given the deficit and debt.
Taxes have never been a problem to me and they are not considered a problem for most Americans.
If you look at the exit polls from the 2008 election, taxes were very far down the list of major concerns of Americans.
“A new Gallup Poll finds 48% of Americans saying the amount of federal income taxes they pay is “about right,” with 46% saying “too high” — one of the most positive assessments Gallup has measured since 1956. Typically, a majority of Americans say their taxes are too high, and relatively few say their taxes are too low.”
http://www.gallup.com/poll/117433/views-income-taxes-among-positive-1956.aspx
By the way U.S. government tax levels are at their lowest level since the 1950s and your taxes have gone no where, but down under Obama.
“Federal, state and local income taxes consumed 9.2% of all personal income in 2009, the lowest rate since 1950, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. That rate is far below the historic average of 12% for the last half-century. The overall tax burden hit bottom in December at 8.8.% of income before rising slightly in the first three months of 2010.”
armstp.
So you have no prblem, say, paying increased tolls on the NJ Turnpike even though an internal audit just showed 43 million in waste (including low evel employees making up the 350k/year in bonus and perks? 500k in free EZ PAsses doled out to friends and relatives, etc.)
The CONCEPT of taxation is not my issue. It is the REALITY of it. The more you give, the more goes to waste. That is a fact. I have no problem paying $10 for something that is worth $10 yet I hate to pay $9 for something worth $%. Get it?
And since for 47% of Americans who don’t pay any income tax, 4/15 is just another day, and since most income taxes are paid by a small minority (like yours truly) of course people don’t object to taxatation…of OTHER people.
After a while though that model collapses. Ask Greece and France…and counting.
9.2% of whose peronsal income? What world do you live in? I pay almost HALF in taxes of all kinds. I have the W2 to show it. Remember a lot of people don’t pay taxes at all. But neither are they the ones who produce jobs.
Actually, they are the ones who produce jobs. They aren’t the ones who produce long term investment, but if you’re only looking at job creation then putting money in the hands of the poorest people is the most effective way to do it. It’s all thanks to a little something called “the market”
Pampl. How many people who make less than 50k a year have you been employed by?
Pampl. So you think ten poor people with 100 more each will have more an effect on economic growth than one rich guy with 10k?
Jeffry1–
So you think ten poor people with 100 more each will have more an effect on economic growth than one rich guy with 10k?
I think you mean a hundred poor people, and in terms of boosting aggregate demand absolutely. Both the theory and the evidence are really irrefutable on this.
AD = C + I + G + NE
where
AD = Aggregate demand
C = consumption
I = private investment spending
G = government spending
NE = net exports
money to the poor almost all goes to C. Money to the rich generates very little C and some I. But there is even more to it. Poor people’s consumption creates an expectation of demand which can lead to more I. Do a websearch on Keynes.
And since for 47% of Americans who don’t pay any income tax, 4/15 is just another day, and since most income taxes are paid by a small minority (like yours truly) of course people don’t object to taxatation…of OTHER people.
Hilarious, um..jeffry has never heard of state and local taxes, property taxes, sales taxes, payroll taxes…what a joke. The fact is we are about as close to parity as far as total taxes paid as a percentage of income. We are still slightly progressive but he would of course be happy to foist them all on the middle class.
By the way if Republicans actually chose to pay a decent wage for work done then there would be far less poor and they would be paying far more in taxes. I imagine Jeffry would have been real pissed off during the times of Slavery how those damn Slaves weren’t paying any taxes at all and how unfair it was that government was funded by the free.
And I pay US taxes even though I don’t live in the states and I ain’t complaining. I pay taxes down in Mexico and pay taxes in the states (property taxes, school taxes on undeveloped land, etc.)
I am happy not being petty and whiny over ever little penny I pay, obsessing over such things. Believe you me, not being money obsessed and greedy is a blessing.
“Pampl. How many people who make less than 50k a year have you been employed by?”
I don’t ask my bosses how much money they make- it’s considered rude. That being said, it’s largely irrelevant to the question of job creation. For example: when I was a kid I worked at Walgreen’s. The woman who signed my paychecks probably made around 50k, but she wasn’t the reason I had a job. The reason I had a job was because there was enough demand for basic goods in that area that it was possible for me (as well as many others) to make a living by spending all of my time sorting and allocating those goods. If I didn’t have a boss to organize me, I probably would have been less productive at it, so there’s a reason why they make the big bucks, but jobs like mine would have still existed even without any rich people. Markets and economic activity create rich people, not vice versa.
Like I said, long term investment and growth works differently, but the status quo doesn’t really depend on the wealthy at all, and there would be only a marginal impact if they all went gulching and left the other 99% of the world to its own devices. I suppose it’s impossible to test that claim because no wealthy person is stupid enough to follow through on Ayn Rand’s threat, but I’m pretty confident in it all the same.
Jeffry1 wrote:
“I have no problem paying $10 for something that is worth $10 yet I hate to pay $9 for something worth $%. ”
Exactly! In my own personal finances and very small percentage goes to debt.
I hate to pay any tax that is going to be wasted and a huge percentage of federal tax dollars is servicing debt. That, is wasted money.
Frum if you think Fox viewers rely on TV commercials for all their consumer decisions, then you really must be on drugs.
Frum if you think Fox viewers rely on TV commercials for all their consumer decisions, then you really must be on drugs
DUH, They just put those commercials on for fun cause they don’t have enough material for a full hour show. Are you Kidding Jen??? I work with a Faux News , Limbaugh listening, Tea Party nutbag that buys everything sold on those programs. It’s worse than the Nascar crowd. He does and believes everthing told to him on Faux News. I tried to get him to read a book by Michael Moore once and he would not even touch it. He does not want to ever here a differing opinion. Totally oblivious to anything but the Hate the ‘Liberals’ media. Its head in the sand, toe the line
pampl –
I suppose it’s impossible to test that claim because no wealthy person is stupid enough to follow through on Ayn Rand’s threat
Actually we have a pretty good test of it. During the 1997 Asian crisis Indonesians turned on Chinese investors and drove them and their supporters out of the country smashing shops and businesses.
GDP in Indonesia is about 2.5x higher than it was pre-crises. In Thailand where the investing class remained its about 1.5x higher.
Remember the bet between eco-paranoiac Paul Elrlich and Julian Simon? Ehrlich bet Simon one thousand dollars that between 1980 and 1990 the prices of 5 minerals (Gold included) would rise, thus indicating their increased scarcity.
When 1990 rolled around, Simon won on all five minerals. Ehrlich wasn’t even close.
And yet I suspect current high gold prices have little to do with ecology or resource scarcity. This seems purely psychological to me. Cranks like Glenn Beck are scaring ill-educated older folks with bogus tales of inflation and they’re buying it despite the fact that inflation in at historical lows. An increased paranoid demand for gold is driving up its price.
A few commentators– Frum, for intstance– have proposed a deliberate inflation programme to reduce the deficit, but I seriously doubt it will happen. When Beck’s fear mongering runs out of gas, and Gold prices drop to more normal (ie, real, market-based) levels, pity all the poor oldsters who are going to be, well, poor.
Jen: you seriously don’t think FOX viewers don’t look to Neil Cavuto and his FOX financial cohort for investment tips? Yeah, the folks could do a lot worse– think Jim Cramer’s sage advice re: Bear Stearns– but still…
“Will the credibility of the radio and TV hosts who tout gold survive a drop in the price of gold?”
Of course not. Only a small minority of their viewers had the means to actually buy gold, and they don’t have TV shows to criticize the “enablers” when the goose dies.
“Will the credibility of the radio and TV hosts who tout it survive a drop in the price?”
Of course they can. They’ll just blame it on the Socialist Liberal Media Elite.
CD-Host: Poor people’s consumption creates an expectation of demand which can lead to more I
All the “expectation of demand” from poor people would never have created the telegraph, the telephone, the automobile, the airplane, the radio, the Polaroid instant camera, television, or the computer.
Your focus on beefing up demand ignores the fact that most economic growth has been triggered by technological innovation, from the hand plow to the iPad.
It’s an assumption among the Left that technological innovation occurs more or less automatically, regardless of the prevailing socio-economic climate. And thatfalse assumption is why the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, in its entire 70 year history, never innovated anything that anyone wanted to buy, except weapons.
But the few million dollars in venture capital that Steve Jobs received to build the Apple II computer in his garage, led to far more wealth and far more employment than Obama’s $800 billion stimulus package has yet created. (Try adding up all the people around the world who have jobs that directly or indirectly involve computers these days.)
Investing in Apple, or Adobe, or Google, creates far more jobs than just spreading money around a bunch of poor people. Because these innovators can create entirely new products and even entirely new industries, of which those poor people could never have dreamed.
WAStateUrbanGOPer: I suspect current high gold prices have little to do with ecology or resource scarcity.
Actually, the price of gold is NOT high. It’s only returning to historical norms, from a long period of undervaluation which began with the Reagan boom and ended with the “dot.com” bubble.
http://www.lenntech.com/images/gold.h1.gif
Here’s a little experiment for you: Compute the ratio of the price of gold (in nominal then-year dollars) to the Standard & Poors 500 Stock Index over the last 100 years. (If you have Metastock or StockCharts, you can easily do this.)
You’ll see that this ratio has fluctuated with a long-term average value of around 1.2
When it’s been higher than that (1970s), it’s usually indicated inflation. When it’s been lower than that (1990s), it’s usually indicated a stock market boom with low inflation.
Today, the S&P 500 is 1,178, and the price of gold is $1,347. The ratio is 1.14, a bit less than the historical norm.
Sinz –
All the “expectation of demand” from poor people would never have created the telegraph, the telephone, the automobile, the airplane, the radio, the Polaroid instant camera, television, or the computer.
I think you are discussing growth in supply not growth in demand. The context is a demand growth shortfall.
And thatfalse assumption is why the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, in its entire 70 year history, never innovated anything that anyone wanted to buy, except weapons.
Well to use your example calculators. Soviet calculators were far far superior to their American counterparts often as much five years ahead. Your average soviet student in the early 1980s was getting the equivalent of a mid/late 80s HP calculator that only engineering students bought.
Another example is Russian dolls which sold all over the world including in the grey market in America.
As for your general point that venture capital creates jobs I agree. It might make more sense to inject money into small business investment and not poor person’s demand. The question was the poor vs. the rich not small business vs. the poor. I wouldn’t have any objection to say a $50k injection into 2m small businesses. That would be $100b in excellent stimulus.
Engineers and scientists generally don’t make more than 200k, while their bosses make 6-7 figures off of their technological advancements. To make it sound as if these things were handed down from on high like the flames of Prometheus is absurd in the most literal sense of the term.
Jeffry1,
Not sure what waste at the NJ turnpike has to do with taxes?
Sounds like the NJ turnpike just needs to be managed better. If there is truly a lot of waste, although from your numbers it is hard to tell, as we would have to know how big the operating budget is for the enter road system to get a sense of proportionality, then maybe they could lower the the price of the tolls, although I am sure they use those toll revenues to pay for other things.
Great, you pay what you think is a lot of taxes, but in aggregate relative to personal income the government is historically collecting the lowest level of taxes since the 1950s. Which tells us the country is not really paying historically high taxes at all.
In America people will always complain about taxes. That is what Americans do. If you go to any other country on the planet you do not hear anywhere near the same kind of level of complaints about taxes as in America, even though Americans pay some of the lowest taxes on the planet.
However, the reality is the tax complaining is mostly trumped up by politicians and elevated by the media in America. If you look at polls and the priorities of Americans, taxes are just not that important an issue for most and most are not too worried about their level of taxation.
CD-Host
>I think you are discussing growth in supply not growth in demand. The context is a demand >growth shortfall.
You are correct about the poor people’s consumption creating an expectation of demand which can lead to more (consumption and demand. my words)
sinz isn’t talking about supply or demand, he talking investment.
At this stage of our problem we want to be selling lots of baby oil, diapers and fix-it-yourself stuff from Home Depot. The new high tech revolutionary inventions follow the demand of poor people for clothes from Target and toys from WalMart.
The iPad sold very well but didn’t do very much for the economy. It is only sold at Apple Stores. It only has five or six accessories. Not much.
Until the mortgage foreclosure imbroglio ends, were stuck at this level of growth.
Frum: I never thought you’d desert us for the likes of Joe Kennedy. Shame on you.
Jim Rogers on Gold
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fWe3jyqRo-4
pnumi2, good response. of course expected demand fuels innovation. It is foolish to imagine otherwise. People work hard to invent things so they can make lots and lots of money by selling lots and lots of the product. Kind of hard to do if you think only a few rich will buy it, or ever be able to buy it. Of course, that is not always true, many, many innovations came about not for a quest for greed but a desire for knowledge (a concept that Sinz could never imagine). Hell, the whole open source software project isn’t very profitable when you give the shit away.
And hell, many innovations occur accidentally, like pennicilan or viagra.
easton
” many innovations occur accidentally, like penicillin or viagra”
Don’t forget James Watt and the steam engine. Arguably, it changed Watt’s world more than the computer changed ours.
Sinz — Whose words these are I think I know, he’s boughten gold with all his dough.
Kondratieff Winter Survival Guide
Now that the winter is upon us, how can we best navigate this most challenging cycle phase of the Kondratieff Wave? This section is dedicated to providing guidelines and insight for that very purpose.
First and foremost, we must not allow fear to permeate our condition or our decisions because obsessing about our woes prevents us from making the most objective decisions for our prosperity. It’s no fun either. And the central theme of the Kondratieff Wave theory is that the destruction phase is most beneficial by providing the means for the renewal of prosperity that follows. It purges much needed excesses from the system that allow more creative progress to unfold that creates more prosperity for us all. Because historical evidence supports this, we should embrace it rather than fear it. Ideally, I would prefer the harshest, swiftest kick in the rear possible so we can begin anew with a better foundation sooner. Until then, we must adapt to the reality of prevailing market conditions so we can preserve our wealth and prepare for the Kondratieff Spring around the corner. So let’s now examine these conditions to help define where we are in this winter cycle so we can better manage our financial affairs.
We have entered the period of the cycle marked by a deflationary asset bust and slowing global GDP growth. Paper assets, including tangible assets such as homes and land, had appreciated for decades and were due to reverse course. However debt levels had risen over the past few decades to all-time highs and drove asset prices even much higher than they would have under previous cycles. Home prices in the US rose every year since the end of the Depression in the mid 1940′s through 2006, over 60 years, and thus still may slide further until an equilibrium is found. The debt wave that just recently peaked was fueled in great part by new financial alchemy of structured finance products that compounded the leverage even more. Clearly, the great de-leveraging of assets will continue into the foreseeable future and thus it is prudent to avoid making any investments of securities tied to the credit process until this de-leveraging has run its course and the global banking system is on more solid ground.
It may seem tempting to bargain for cheap financial stocks and others in sectors dependent upon financing, but I maintain they are a value trap until proven otherwise. These would include homebuilders, durable goods manufacturers, retailers, insurance, and consumer discretionary stocks among other sectors that have any meaningful exposure to the US economy. Sectors that are more favorable would include utilities, healthcare, biotech, consumer staple companies with significant foreign exposure, and energy companies. Companies most preferred are ones that have cash-flow positive operations or if in development stage sectors such as mining or biotech, have at least two years of cash on hand to see them through the worst of this credit cycle. Otherwise they may fall victim to excessive dilution to existing shareholders from raising capital at levels that may damage their capital structure.
I want to review some secular trends evident that are sure to sustain for the short and intermediate future that can provide a foundation to base investment decisions upon during this winter period. These themes have been reported on this site at length but are worth repeating here:
Gold has proven to be the best performing asset class during a Kondratieff Winter
Stocks, especially in the US, will suffer from contracting GDP growth and malaise
Capital flows into assets classes in descending order of liquidity
Hyper-inflation is possible if governments use monetary re-flation to battle deflation
Preservation of wealth trumps investment return as the core strategy
Investors must remain more flexible than ever due to fast changing market conditions
Invest either against the trend most unsustainable or with the one most sustainable
In John Exter’s Inverse Pyramid of Liquidity, gold and cash are kings. This shows that during the winter cycle period investors increasingly trade down return for safety, triaging to the most liquid investment class and eschewing riskier assets. And what have we seen the past year or so? Investors dumping emerging market stocks and bonds, OTC stocks, real estate, etc and rushing into gold, cash, and US government securities, even driving the yields on all maturities lower than inflation to suggest that are willing to pay someone to hold their money. Such is the madness of a Kondratieff Winter.
For those of you tired of the Pollyannaish view that prosperity is just around the corner. If you don’t know Kondratieff, google him.
If you like Kondratieff you would likely like Elliott: http://www.elliottwave.com/
CD-Host
I was weaned on Elliot. I think we’re headed for the bear market C wave. What do you think?
pnumi2 –
I think I honestly suck at technical analysis.
I’m very good at fundamental analysis but have bear’s disease so I’m 2 years early. I’ve learned to decide when my instinct tells me is the right to move I make a calendar note and make a move in 2 years.
I think the exciting play is being short treasuries right now. I see almost no upside on the treasury and tons of possible inflationary pressure. I could see a very sharp dollar drop. That being said I think inflation is good for stocks in US terms.
That also being said At the Crest of the Tidal Wave is a terrific book on bear market psychology. have you read Socionomics? Thats on my long term to read list.
Hey there…………..i am Mary Martin………………….
All the “expectation of demand” from poor people would never have created the telegraph, the telephone, the automobile, the airplane, the radio, the Polaroid instant camera, television, or the computer.
I think you are discussing growth in supply not growth in demand. The context is a demand growth shortfall.
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