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The ill-advised insurgency against the Republican establishment has clearly cost the GOP control of the Senate. While the victory in the House is very impressive, the serious Republican failure in the Senate can be summarized in three simple words: “Majority Leader Reid” — not only should he not have a majority, he should not even be in the Senate.
While a lot has already been said about throwing away winnable Senate seats in Delaware,Colorado and Nevada, the blame for that failure lies not only with the losing anti-establishment candidates but also with the victorious ones – such as Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. I pointed out before that anti-establishment campaigns might have a negative impact on other races. While as a rule establishment candidates (from Charlie Crist on one end of the country to Lisa Murkowski on the other) were perfectly capable of winning without any out-of-state financial support, the Republican primary voters who rejected them for no good reason often refused to put their money where their mouth was and to adequately finance the candidates they had just nominated. Thus a lot of outside resources had to be diverted from other – often better – uses. I believe it is obscene that in a year when many liberal Democrats (such as Barbara Boxer) were vulnerable for the first – and probably last! – time in their political careers the GOP spent a fortune on ads trashing Republican governor Charlie Crist and Republican senator Lisa Murkowski. Now please excuse me for a moment while I fantasize about what could have been if Dino Rossi’s campaign had had another million dollars…
Pavelyev:
You do realize that Marco Rubio got nearly 50% of the vote in a 3-way race, right???
Based on that alone, why would anyone think that Charlie Crist was a good candidate for Florida?
Oh, I forgot…This is “FrunForum”…Home of idiot Republicans…
Also, are you blissfully unaware that it was the GOP establishment who REFUSED to help Sharon Angle?
Note that more or less every writer for David Frum’s blog puts the welfare of the GOP before the welfare of America. It is more important to them that the Republican Party retain power than that the America be governed by conservative principles. You will find this inversion of values as the subtext to nearly every piece analyzing this election on this blog.
It is understandable that Canadian David Frum would value the GOP over America – he is a Republican, after all, and not an American. But what excuse do the other FrumForum writers have?
Angle raised $14m. She was not in any way shape or form underfunded. She was the most successful fundraising senator, period. The Tea Party people were much much more successful in raising money. The insurgency was a money maker.
CD is right. It’s time to stop talking as if the losing Tea Partiers were defeated because of a lack of funds. They were defeated because they presented a clear choice, one that in some instances scared the daylights out of even the angriest of constituencies.
I disagree. In Florida, it’s unquestionable Republicans nominated the better candidate. Saying his successful insurgent candidacy fueled others is a bit speculative, and besides, while Rubio undoubtedly benefited from tea party support, he isn’t a tea party candidate. He’s no more tea party than Jeb Bush, and he certainly isn’t a political outsider. The man was speaker of the Florida House! Rubio is actually a fairly conventional conservative Republican pol who cleverly fashioned himself as a newcomer.
The argument is a bit stronger as to Rand Paul, whose embrace of the tea party could not have been more open and notorious. Paul also couldn’t be more of a political outsider, given that he has never held or sought political office before.
I also disagree that Republicans failed to follow through and finance these insurgent candidates. Buck, Angle and Miller proved to be able fundraisers. Even O’Donnell raised $2 million within days of winning the primary (and she outraised Coons!).
S.L. Toddard writes “It is understandable that Canadian David Frum would value the GOP over America – he is a Republican, after all, and not an American. But what excuse do the other FrumForum writers have?”
No No No. Don’t call Frum an American. He’s an Israeli pretending to be an American.
This is complete BS. There are factual errors and outright lies here. The analysis is wrong and presumes everything would stay the same after removing crucial elements…. “If yer Aunt had gonads she’d be yer Uncle” kind of analysis. I haven’t read such falacious commentary since, well, last week when Nancy Pelosi was predicting the Dems would hold onto the House. Do the writers on this site really believe they can convince sentient beings that you can somehow separate the enthusiasm of the Tea Party and somehow win the SENATE? Yeah, riiight…
And note well, this writer would apparently rather have Charlie Christ than Marco Rubio. What kind of political degenerate prefers Charlie Crist to, well, anyone?
S. L. Toddard, Frum is an American citizen.
The general thesis of this website has been: Conservatism needs to modernize by getting more reformist on policy and younger and more diverse in its marketing.
Rubio nails the demographics, and his acceptance speech validates Bill Clinton’s fear of his political talent. Had Crist been unchallenged and elected, he would have been an unremarkable GOP Senator. He may be a moderate, but he’s not a center-right reformist, and he proved that by leaving the GOP the moment he lost the primary.
Crist is not part of the FrumForum project, and Rubio is. This post seems upside down.
It wasn’t like more money being thrown at Angle was going to do anything here in Nevada. I had to stop watching TV because the commercials were non-stop and relentless. I don’t think they could have squeezed in more commercials unless they cut the actual programs. It was awful and I’m glad to see it end. No, the problem was with Angle. She gave the election to Reid and if you think it is just the money look at Whitman and Fiorina, between the two of them they launched their own financial stimulus for California with little success for them but a great boon for TV, radio and newspaper owners. Angle is well known here in Nevada and no rational person was going to support her. Reid is no gift from God but he actually cares about Nevada and works at it, a far cry from the message coming from Angle. Besides Reid’s strong organization, Angle was the dems best offense and it didn’t cost them a dime to hire her. Nevada thanks the many millions of dollars that came Angle’s way from outside groups and was spent locally, we really needed it.
If anyone is to blame for the GOP having to spend money to trash Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski, aren’t the people to blame Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski? They decided not to live with the primary results but run as independents. Had Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski been more concerned about the Republicans regaining the majority than with their own political fortunes, they would have supported the Republican nominees. But, they chose otherwise. In these circumstances, what should the GOP do other than try to elect the candidates selected by the primary election?
Paul also couldn’t be more of a political outsider, given that he has never held or sought political office before.
abj, I think having still ultra popular Libertarian Ron as his father really helped.
To today stand here and still defend Crist is to pretty much lack all shame. The man proved during the race that he knows no law above his own self-interest, and would take literally any position at all, if he regarded it as helpful to his ambitions.
Some the ‘tea party’ candidates were bizarre, there’s no doubt about that. But to blame a failure to take the Senate on them is frivolous. Even if the GOP took DE, NV, and CO, we would still only haev 50 seats, and a tie goes to the Dems. Incidentally, it is by no means clear that we wouldn’t have needed to spend money helping his preferred candidates in those races, especially in NV and CO.
Remember that in early 2009, people were saying that the GOP was going to lose seats again because of the tough map, and having more seats to defend. Could we have done better? Of course, and there are lessons to be learned. Does this mean that the election was a failure? Certainly not. After the Tory “victory” in the 2010 UK election, David and co. were out in force, defending Cameron and the ‘Tory rebrand’ even though it apparently was not enough to actually get them a majority in the Commons. Can we at least agree that the attempt to turn the GOP into the Tories also lacks serious electoral evidence?
As for the primaries, would Andrew prefer that we not have primaries? They aren’t going away, so rather than sit here and whine, maybe he should get out and try to convince actual GOP voters to support the candidates he prefers.
Franco –
What kind of political degenerate prefers Charlie Crist to, well, anyone?
Someone who was looking at 2012 or 2016 presidential / vice presidential bid. Crist is good looking, knowledge, popular in his stake well spoken and from Florida. Having worked his way up, being both a governor and a senator its hard to see how he wouldn’t an asset to a national ticket. There was good reason he was being talked about that way.
Rubio is a solid knowledgable conservative and grooming him is not a poor investment resources either. Florida has a wealth of talent. But… right now the Republicans have a problem for P/VP slot and Crist could have filled that.
If anyone is to blame for the GOP having to spend money to trash Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski, aren’t the people to blame Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski?
I agree with the point you’re making, but it’s important to distinguish between Murkowski and Crist. The state and national GOP never targeted Murkowski – in fact, in recent weeks, they’re actually relieved she decided to run. They focused their firepower exclusively on McAdams, the Dem nominee. She’s made clear she’ll remain a Republican. So, it’s no loss for the party. Murkowski wasn’t the enemy.
Crist, on the other hand, strongly hinted that he’d caucus with Democrats. He was the enemy.
Saladdin,
100% correct, but he does have an outsider profile. He’s a political novice and he wouldn’t have a chance in a normal midterm cycle.
Albeit unanswerable question. What would Nov.3rd have looked like if, the GOP immediately after the primary endorsed Angle, O’Donnell, Buck, and Miller, their respective primary opponents immediately endorsed them, and the entire establishment was behind them all the way from day one?
abj, true he was a political novice. But after the primaries he veered hard right, even to the point of being embraced by the ultimate insider McConnell. I still think that in Kentucky, where he’s replacing the esteemed Jim Bunning, he still would’ve won in a normal political cycle.
I live in Cali, and will let you know that our current governor Schwarzenegger wouldn’t be gov were it not for the recall. He’s way too moderate to have gotten out of the Republican primary here. Heck, Reagan would be too moderate to emerge from a Republican primary here nowadays.
“Rubio nails the demographics, and his acceptance speech validates Bill Clinton’s fear of his political talent. ”
Really? I keep reading how great that speech was. Maybe if you already share Rubio’s politics, but I heard the speech the night of the election, and I heard boilerplate American Exceptionalism and other platitudes. I found it without substance.
I found it without substance.
Gus, I tend to agree. I guess this is what now passes for eloquence in the current GOP. Peggy Noonan it was not.
CD-Host // Nov 4, 2010 at 12:13 pm
Franco –
What kind of political degenerate prefers Charlie Crist to, well, anyone?
Someone who was looking at 2012 or 2016 presidential / vice presidential bid. Crist is good looking, knowledge, popular in his stake well spoken and from Florida. Having worked his way up, being both a governor and a senator its hard to see how he wouldn’t an asset to a national ticket. There was good reason he was being talked about that way.
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Wow. Crist is good looking. Hmmm. POTUS is a beauty contest for you? Knowlege (able)? What does he know exactly? You really think knowledge trumps principle? If you do you deserve to be led by such people, but not me. Popular in his stake (sic) I guess you mean state… well, not popular enough apparently is he? Well spoken…wow another rarity we need someone like that who speaks well. I suppose he bathes regularly too, another asset. My God….
Sorry, but the comentary here is thin, come on this is the best you got? (have, I know, I’m just talkin’ on yer level like Obama does when he talks to his followers.
Can’t really say I’m comfortable with the idea that you have to give money to the people you vote for, or you’re doing it wrong.
The GOP establishment is no Chamberlain, unfortunately. — Laura Curtis // Nov 4, 2010 at 2:18 pm
[...] condemns the TEA party and insists that we need to compromise with the Democrats. There’s a post at FrumForum right now which claims Marco Rubio is at fault for the fact that Harry Reid won, and where a [...]
@ Carney:
I do not dispute that he is an American citizen. That does not make him an American. If David Frum gained Ethiopian citizenship he would not magically become an Ethiopian.
Knowlege (able)? What does he know exactly? You really think knowledge trumps principle?
Let see:
Obama — Knowledgeable, ran as a moderate
Bush -43 — High appeal to hispanics. Triumph of electability over principle (in 2000)
Clinton — Ran on pragmatism
Bush – 41 — Need I say anything? Knowledgeable anti-ideology
Reagan — Principle
Carter — Knowledgeable and southern appeal
Ford — Knowledgeable
Nixon — Knowledgeable
Johnson — Knowledgeable
Kennedy — Both
Ike — Knowledgeable, anti-principle
It seems that yeah that’s often a winning strategy.
SL Toddard:
“I do not dispute that he is an American citizen. That does not make him an American. If David Frum gained Ethiopian citizenship he would not magically become an Ethiopian.”
Sorry but immigrants when they obtain citizenship are Americans. Deal with it you xenophobic individual. Sorry we all can’t be WASPs.
John Sides did some statistical analysis:
http://www.themonkeycage.org/2010/11/how_much_did_the_tea_party_hel.html
It pains me to say it, but being part of the TP helped GOP nominees gain an average of 1.3% of the vote. FrumForum’s spin is on the wrong side of the facts in this case.. the TP really was a benefit to the GOP, not a drag on it.
the TP really was a benefit to the GOP, not a drag on it.
Actually, pampl, shouldn’t that read, the TP was really a part of the GOP, not separate from it.
In what deranged, alternative universe was Marco Rubio a drain on the Republicans this year? He is the single best thing that happened to them. I question whether I am living in the same world as the author of this article.
And let’s not forget that Crist was not even the incumbent in that primary. To whatever extent an elected official has a “right” to their seat, Crist was not even the senator (unlike Murkowski or Lieberman). If you don’t believe that that what transpired in the FL primary was a healthy thing for the Republican party and representative democracy, I can’t imagine you are much of a fan of either the Republican party or representative democracy.
Hold off on the Celebrations
Andrew Pavelyev wrote on November 5th, 2009 at 10:08 am | 19 Comments
While conservatives are excited about the wins in Virginia and New Jersey, they still have their work cut out for them. In many formerly reliable red states, the Democrats are gaining in strength while the GOP still has trouble connecting with voters outside of shrinking small town America.
____________________________________________________________________
Hahahahahaha
Frum Forum seems to be a site where you can brazenly make predictions that turn out wrong and then pretend you are batting 1000. No shame here.
Saladdin:
As I understand it, the TP is the far right wing of the GOP.
eugibs // Nov 4, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Exactly. These folks are such elites. They hate those pesky “voters”. They really don’t believe in Democracy per se. They believe in a Democracy that elects their friends. And who are their friends? People like Crist and Specter and Murkowski. They are the same type of people, loyal to each other only, loyal to other elites (Yalies and Harvard grads stick together regardless of petty differences like socialism vs capitalism) and they also happen to be willing to prevaricate at will.
Saladdin,
the TP was really a part of the GOP, not separate from it.
It isn’t quite that simple. Most of them are conservative independents, i.e., people that usually vote Republican in general elections but aren’t members of the party per se. Some are former Republicans disgusted with the party’s direction under Bush. And some, of course, are rank and file members of the party. I wouldn’t say they’re part of the GOP though. If they were just hack Republicans, you wouldn’t have seen them lead so many primary challenges against incumbents.
These folks probably hate the GOP establishment more than the Democrats. They see Republican power as a means to an end – not the end itself.
abj, while I tend to agree that I overgeneralized, let me explain. IMO, the TP’ers are a myriad of mixed voices all arguing for some form of Conservatism, be it fiscal, social, or moral. These folks are Conservative independents, not moderates by any means, and true, they probably do hate the GOP establishment more than Dems (except in Ky where Mitch Daniels is loved).
These folks are the purists, absolutists who are uninterested in how government actually works. That’s why you had Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell. That’s more than likely why there is “no compromise.” If the GOP wants a bigger tent, as I hope they do, then these are the folks they’ll need inside, not outside pissing in (to borrow a phrase from LBJ).
The fact that they are moving the party to the right is disconcerting, mostly because they are leaderless at this point. They are a strong political influence, but the results over time could be disastrous, particularly if the economy looks better by 2012, with unemployment closer to 6.5 than 9.6.
The ill-advised insurgency against the Republican establishment has clearly cost the GOP control of the Senate.
What kind of nitwit could possibly write something like this? The GOP lost the Senate in 2006 precisely because the (current) establishment became appropriators and big-spenders, little different from the Democrats themselves.
And the author is pining for Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski… WTF???? Crist and Murkowski thumbed their orange and white noses at GOP primary voters, and ran as independents instead of doing the right thing and retiring. If they had done so, both FL and AK would both currently be GOP wins and would not have involved millions of dollars of party expenditures — it is these establishment candidates that nearly cost the GOP seats, not Tea Party-backed candidates.
Prof –
The GOP lost the Senate in 2006 precisely because the (current) establishment became appropriators and big-spenders, little different from the Democrats themselves.
You don’t think the Iraq war had anything to do with it?
Prof:
I have the same question as CD actually. Iraq had nothing to do with it?
Also if you’re going to call Charlie Crist orange are you going to refer to Boehner as neon orange?
Rabiner and CD-Host,
Good point, another GOP establishment failure — the thought that Iraq or any other Islamic country in the Middle East would rejoice and embrace democracy willingly only if their (beloved) dictators were overthrown is a stupidity that only Bush-Frum Republicans could possibly embrace.
Goldwater and Reagan certainly wouldn’t have.
Prof –
Islamic country in the Middle East would rejoice and embrace democracy willingly only if their (beloved) dictators were overthrown is a stupidity that only Bush-Frum Republicans could possibly embrace.
It was worse than that. They might have been willing to embrace democracy if we let them. But we expected them to embrace democracy and agree with US policies. So for example the Shiites wanted to be an Iranian colony independent and the Kurds independent neither of which were ready to tolerate. Not only did we want democracy but we figured they would agree with us once they had it.
I hate to wake you up from your wonderful fantasy, but if it wasn’t for the enthusiasm generated by the Tea Party and their early successes, Dino Rossi would never had run in the first place. And you should realize that it was a very uphill battle in the first place. No matter how close he got, King County “voters” would always deny him a victory (if you know what I mean).
As far as Delaware goes, I’ve seen an article that effectively showed that Castle would have fared little better than O’Donnell. (can’t remember where I saw it, so no link, sorry.) They elected Joe Biden SEVEN TIMES. That should tell you all you need to know about Delaware. And O’Donnell should get some sort of “lightning rod” award from the GOP. By being the constant focus of media attacks she effectively shielded any number of other candidates.
Do you think ANY candidate could have won in Nevada? The Reid “machine”, with it’s ability to cajole and coerce the union vote is the envy of Chicago. Oh, you say Angle enraged the Latino voters, etc, etc, but look at what happened to the “establishment” candidate. She made a rather offhand remark about “bartering with chickens” and the Reid campaign totally destroyed her. So much for Nevada being a “winnable” state.
While Boxer may have looked “vulnerable”, that was totally illusional. Just look at California. It’s turning into an entitlement state, and will continue to elect it’s Democrat enablers until the whole system collapses into chaos. Does anyone rational think that electing Gov Moonbeam will do anything that could rescue that state from the economic hell-hole it’s become? Most would think he will make it even WORSE.
You would have preferred Crist over Marco Rubio? WTF!!!!
We made STUPENDOUS gains on Tuesday. You might find fantasizing about what could never be very enjoyable but it does no one any good. Get over it. The future’s so bright, I need SUNGLASSES!
Rossi had already run campaigns in the past, he didn’t need any excitement to try again, and if he had needed it then he wouldn’t have run because the TP backed Clint Didier. I don’t know why you’re putting “voters” in quotation marks but I’m sure it’s for a stupid reason so I’d rather not hear it. Saying that Nevada was unwinnable is just delusional. Believing in idiot TP propaganda that super-popular Castle wouldn’t have done any better than the witchy woman just marks you as a sucker.
She made a rather offhand remark about “bartering with chickens” and the Reid campaign totally destroyed her. So much for Nevada being a “winnable” state.
Nevada was imminently winnable, but the CW that Sue Lowden would’ve fared better than Angle is wrong. She also would have lost, for the same reason Angle did lose – she was a lousy candidate. That she allowed that silly “chickens for checkups” comment to consume and destroy her candidacy tells you everything you need to know about how she would’ve performed under constant, withering assault from camp Reid. She clearly wasn’t ready for the rigors of that kind of campaign.
If Jon Porter, Dean Heller, Brian Sandoval or (maybe) Kenny Guinn had challenged Reid, his Machiavellian machinations would have been for naught, and he would’ve gone down in a 10+ point defeat.
Andrew,
I think your presumption that Republicans would have automatically won Reid’s seat without Angle is wrong. There is a very good chance that Reid would have beaten any Republican. Reid is a formidable campaigner and politician. His ground game is the best in the country and the Republicans were never going to get the Latino or the big service union vote.
armstp,
The lesson here is that the Nevada GOP really needs to get its act together. It needs to develop its infrastructure, hone its ground game, and to start recruiting quality candidates. That someone like Sharron Angle could win the nomination for U.S. Senate tells you how thin the GOP’s bench was in that state.
There are Republicans in that state who could have beaten Reid, but they all took a pass. Reid managed to either co-opt them (Sandoval, Heller) or push them out of office (Porter).
The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : Winning Conservatives Cost Losing Moderates Their Elections // Nov 5, 2010 at 12:26 pm
[...] Pavelyev advances a novel argument: "While a lot has already been said about throwing away winnable Senate seats in Delaware,Colorado [...]
In reply to pampl:
I think the first paragraph from this article makes my point:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2010/06/17/dino_rossi_patty_murray_reluctant
“SEATTLE — It took Republican Dino Rossi months to decide whether he wanted to take a shot at unseating Washington state’s senior senator, Patty Murray. A three-term incumbent, Murray, polls show, is potentially vulnerable in November, even though she’s also the state’s most popular Democrat.”
Rossi had already lost 2 statewide contests including the 2004 contest which reeked of Minnesota:
http://www.seattlepi.com/local/227307_judgerules06ww.html
So trying to claim that Rossi was eager to jump into the fray once again certainly ignores the facts and the actual history. Also reference the article as to “voters”. King County/Seattle is home to the same Democrat “machine” corruption so prevalent in big city politics, it just hasn’t received the same media attention as it’s more infamous practitioners.
When it comes to Delaware, do you think they would really go for a quasi-Democrat over the real thing, no matter how “popular” he might be? I’m not the one who’s delusional here.
in reply to abj:
“If Jon Porter, Dean Heller, Brian Sandoval or (maybe) Kenny Guinn had challenged Reid,…”
More after the fact what-ifs. The fact is, they DIDN’T run. (jeez, I wonder why). Lowden may have been a “lousy candidate”, but she certainly wasn’t a neophyte. And more to the point, she WAS the “establishment” candidate of choice. GOP leaders blaming Angle and the Tea Party for losing Nevada is quite hypocritical when “their” candidate failed so miserably. Unless Reid had been found with the proverbial live boy or dead girl, he was going to win. Big city political machines have a long history of thwarting the public will and it happened once again in Nevada.
I live in Seattle, so unfortunately for you I know how blatant your lying is about Rossi and King County. You also did nothing to address the fact that proves how ignorant you are, that Rossi was the ENEMY of the Tea Partiers, who backed Didier.
“When it comes to Delaware, do you think they would really go for a quasi-Democrat over the real thing, no matter how “popular” he might be? I’m not the one who’s delusional here.”
This is the funniest line I’ve read today. I can’t tell if you were trying to write the most deluded thing possible as a lead-in to your punchline about delusions or if you’re actually being serious.