RSS Feed MenuTexas GOP voters will probably have to head to the polls twice to nominate their candidate for governor, at least if Rasmussen’s latest numbers hold up. Rasmussen’s last poll showed current Governor Rick Perry leading U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison by a margin of 48% to 27%. The Tea Party 9/11 conspiracy theorist, Debra Medina, earned 16% of the vote while 9% had not made up their minds.
Perry needs to secure 50% of the vote in order to force a runoff with Hutchison. Either way, Perry is probably going to win, but going to a runoff is at least significant in the sense that it means Perry will have to spend more campaign funds trying to secure the nomination.
This won’t please him, since Rasmussen shows that the Democratic frontrunner and former Houston mayor Bill White gaining ground on his Republican opponents. A telephone survey puts Perry’s lead over White at 6 points (47-41) with 7% still undecided, which is down from the nine point lead Rasmussen found at the beginning of the the month when Perry led White 48-39.
Interestingly, Hutchison is polling better against the opposition than Perry (she posted a 47%-38%) lead over the former mayor.
The bottom line: a runoff probably only hurts Republicans.
DFL // Mar 2, 2010 at 11:10 am
Perry can coast to victory over Hutchison whether there is a run-off or not. Although Perry has deservedly earned many enemies over the years, especially with his arrogant effort to put a gigantic highway through Texas that would disrupt towns and individual farms and ranches. Moreover, his attempt to force cervical cancer innoculations on girls seemed totalitarian to most Texans. However, Hutchison not only is a big bore, she is the candidate of the Houston and Dallas country clubs, a later-day Bushie.
ferruccio // Mar 2, 2010 at 11:56 am
And so once again we see hints of “A house divided against itself cannot stand” (actually, it _can_, not least because the “other” house opposing it is at least as “divided against itself” in the general case, but it’s often going to have a far harder time of it than unity might afford). Perry’s trying to break the historical record and become the longest-running-ever Governor of Texas, yet I think the smart money’s still on him… but without Hutchison and Medina in the race I think it would be a slam dunk (the slight dip in the polls to 47-41 is in good part due to negative primaries’ campaigning and will probably recede if and when the party pulls together behind him… and anyway that’s still a winning margin, though not comfortable given the polls’ error margins).
Consider that a Democratic win in TX would be quite as astonishing as the Republican win in NJ was, and the fall-2010 zeitgeist does not seem to point that way. The real danger for the GOP in Texas is not in 2010, it’s in the much-longer run, as Latinos’ demographics keep pushing Latinos’ electoral weight up… just as is the case nationwide, though TX is an important example. And the solution is clear (and it’s not too late for the party to veer that way): make GOP more Latinos-friendly, focus on the many points in common (such as social conservatism) and de-emphasize the frenzied fringes that make Latinos feel decidedly unwelcome (while of course it’s only fully-legal Latinos who can vote, **many** of them have friends and relatives who are undocumented, and each blast of hate against the latter is one more notch against the GOP’s long-time prospects). Of course I don’t mean condoning illegality, but (for example) moderate, principled opposition to the McCain-Kennedy bill, watering it down to some reasonable set of compromises instead of putting up the fiercest battle ever against a bipartisan bill, would have helped a lot — and similar centrist, bipartisan compromises may soon emerge again (it remains to be seen how we’ll handle such opportunities when they arise).
Carney // Mar 2, 2010 at 3:23 pm
Um, vaccination and inoculation is not totalitarian. Shame on those who fan the flames of hysteria and enable disease.
Carney // Mar 2, 2010 at 3:37 pm
ferruccio, the arguments you make were made for years about black Americans, by people like Jack Kemp. They’re supposedly social conservatives, they’re business-oriented, they’re just looking for a sign that they’re welcome so tone down the rhetoric on certain issues and all will be peachy.
Prodded by Rove and his own noblesse oblige do-gooderism, Bush squished on every imaginable issue to try to win over Hispanics, both as governor and president. He never challenged “bilingual” education or official business, including ballots and citizenship ceremonies (!). Not a pinky laid on affirmative action and other racial preferences. Deliberate neglect of illegal immigration and a massive push for amnesty. He bankrupted the nation and the world pushing lenders to hand out home loans to increase minority homeownership. What gratitude did rolling over on EVERYTHING give him? He was routinely rejected by 40 point margins, 40 to 60 against. The most pathetic part is that he, Rove, and their apologists trumpeted this as a success!
You can (and many have) make a fool of yourself and waste your entire career chasing the will-o-wisp of Republican support in certain communities that are overwhelmingly dependent on the state, or you can be a realist and understand what the political and demographic lay of the land is.
Ironically, such realism mandates a hard line on immigration. Any halfway competent strategist would realize that it is imperative to shut down immigration from a group that AT BEST votes against you by 40 points, if you want your party to have a long-term future.
We are constantly told that current immigration rates are like the tides, an unstoppable natural force before we must simply bow. Nonsense. It’s a public policy decision like any other, can be reversed immediately upon a congressional majority and an energetic executive deciding to do so.
GOProud // Mar 3, 2010 at 9:22 am
Jeb, I simply want to point out that you were spinning a line of the adverse impact of a Perry-Kay runoff and how the TeaParty candidate was spoiling the cream… you were wrong. Again.
When will FF get some writers who actually know something about GOP politics?
CentristNYer // Mar 3, 2010 at 2:37 pm
GOProud // Mar 3, 2010 at 9:22 am
“When will FF get some writers who actually know something about GOP politics?”
Maybe you should volunteer your services. You’re as deluded as the average tea partier, and every single one of your posts is partisan drivel with a dollop of paranoia.