Entries Tagged as 'Weak Economy'

Another Conservative Economist Goes Rogue

David Frum August 5th, 2011 at 3:45 pm 57 Comments

Carmen Reinhart is the co-author with Kenneth Rogoff of the immensely important history of financial crises, This Time It’s Different. (Read it!) She’s married to AEI Senior Fellow Vince Reinhart, the former senior Fed official cited in this space yesterday.

If the words “free-market economist” describe anybody, they describe Carmen Reinhart.

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Yes, Obama is to Blame

August 5th, 2011 at 2:00 pm 60 Comments

David Frum has challenged conservatives to identify which of President Obama’s policies have prolonged and worsened the recession. David focuses on what has happened, sildenafil or not happened, buy without considering that people in the real economy (beyond the federal government and Washington punditry) base their decisions on what they expect to happen.

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Less Politics, More Economics

David Frum August 5th, 2011 at 2:00 pm 97 Comments

Over the past few days, I’ve written on this site about the inadequacy of conservative thinking about the economic crisis that has beset the United States and the world.

I’ve argued in particular that conservatives often overstate President Obama’s culpability for the severity of the downturn. I agree with the conservative view that the president’s policies are detrimental to the long-term growth of the United States. I agree too that Obama has not responded effectively enough to the crisis. Once more and with feeling: I am not a supporter of this president or his policies. But to say “he has failed to respond as effectively as he should have” is a very different thing from “he made it worse.” That claim I think is insupportable.

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Signs of Progress

David Frum August 5th, 2011 at 10:53 am 42 Comments

Charles Krauthammer endorses abolishing both the healthcare exclusion and mortgage interest deductibility. Add a carbon tax or VAT and you’ve got a Republican offer enticing enough to gain meaningful Democratic concessions on entitlement spending – while still meeting Republican goals of holding down tax rates on work, saving and investment.

Debt reduction is not an answer to the current global economic crisis, but debt reduction remains necessary to enhancing the long-term growth potential of the US economy post-crisis.

Enough Washington Drama

August 5th, 2011 at 9:14 am 6 Comments

These certainly are interesting times. The United States is in an increasingly precarious position. Growth at home is anemic.  There’s not much in Europe to be up about either. Markets are increasingly skiddish, ampoule and yesterday plunged.

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Economists vs. Economic Commentators

David Frum August 4th, 2011 at 3:19 pm 20 Comments

Vince Reinhart is a former director of the monetary division of the Federal Reserve. Now he’s a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He explains in this video that the debt problem is long term, not immediate; that tax increases have to be considered part of the policy mix; and that the congressional debt-ceiling deal is bad news:

It’s a reminder of how far apart actual conservative economists have drifted from the most popular conservative economic commentators.

Is it 1937 Again?

David Frum August 4th, 2011 at 2:59 pm 106 Comments

Ezra Klein asks a good question:

Where will the recovery come from? The problem is that no one has an answer. And as one hopeful hypothesis after another is dashed, the markets are beginning to panic.

It won’t come from the United States. Our recovery has slowed, and updates to the Commerce Department’s growth figures have shown that the hole we’re in is significantly deeper than we realized. Thursday’s news only underscored that conclusion, as the early signs suggest that Friday’s job numbers report will be disappointing.

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Why 2012 is the Republicans’ to Lose

August 4th, 2011 at 2:38 pm 23 Comments

As we get closer to 2012, look there is one chart that pundits and columnists need to constantly refer back to in their writing – a scatterplot that shows how changes in real disposable income correlate with the success of the incumbent party in presidential elections:

(Courtesy of Seth Masket)

The general trend is clear: parties which oversee increases in personal disposable income generally do better in elections than parties which do not.

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Obama: Already a Lame Duck?

August 4th, 2011 at 2:08 pm 37 Comments

Politico has a piece discussing the “big drags” on the Obama re-elect effort. Nothing too surprising: there is the lack of economic growth and the bad political map. The usual suspects. What caught my eye was this:

A top Democratic strategist who is close to the White House said that Obama’s first-term record “is going to be, on balance, probably a liability” for his reelection, partly “because of the failure to sell and explain the things that they were doing.”

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If Conservatives Were Right About the Economy

David Frum August 4th, 2011 at 9:13 am 127 Comments

Further to yesterday’s post about the respective economic acumen of the Wall Street Journal editorial page vs. Prof. Paul Krugman:

My conservative friends argue that the policies of Barack Obama are responsible for the horrifying length and depth of the economic crisis.

Question: Which policies?

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