RSS Feed MenuRepublicans who hoped that Arlen Specter would go quietly were wrong. Despite the fact that more than half of Pennsylvania voters say they don’t think Senator Arlen Specter deserves another term, Specter has stormed past the man that pushed him out of the Republican party in the latest Quinnipiac University poll by a margin of 49-42 percent. Specter has turned the tables quickly on Toomey, who led in most polls throughout the beginning and middle of last month (see this one from Franklin and Marshall or this one from Rasmussen )
While the poll results show that a majority don’t want Specter back, they certainly have learned Specter’s name in the time since he took over as Pennsylvania’s Senator way back in 1980. Only 11% of voters reported not knowing enough about him to form an opinion. This is more than they can say about Toomey at this point: 65% of Pennsylvania voters reported that they didn’t know enough about the candidate.
Specter is also cleaning up among female voters, sporting a 52 – 36% margin, which more than makes up for the votes that Toomey picks up via his 49 – 46% lead among male voters. The fact that 52% of Pennsylvania voters said they thought that Specter doesn’t deserve another term (as opposed to 38% that do) suggests that Toomey still has eight months to close the gap in name-recognition and possibly even win the race. But don’t underestimate Arlen Specter. While frustration with Washington may be high, you don’t serve thirty years in the U.S. Senate without having some political skills and unless Toomey makes a strong case for himself, look for Pennsylvania voters to fall back on Arlen… again.
bamboozer // Mar 3, 2010 at 7:07 pm
Pennsylvania is not conservative enough for Toomey and his friends at The Club For Growth. They cast out Rick Santorum, why would some one even more conservative be successful?
GOProud // Mar 3, 2010 at 8:59 pm
“But don’t underestimate Arlen Specter.”
I have to admit, I’d prefer Arlen Specter over Pat2Me!!! any day. I think 2Me!!! and his organization have done more to poison the well of compromise and bipartisanship than Obama can do in 4 yrs… and that’s a sizable negative on Obama’s part.
Specter reminds me of the kind of politician this Country 1st enjoyed when Congress was ruled by men of standing, property, seasoning, gravitas. When most of the men who served in Congress served in the public interest and with a true patriot’s heart toward improving man’s lot. They were informed by history and understood that America’s future was not scripted, it was open, vibrant and preserving tradition mattered. And they served with noble intent.
Except for Thos Jefferson –the scumbag.
kevin47 // Mar 3, 2010 at 10:56 pm
I harbor no delusions that this will be any sort of runaway for Toomey, but the difference between the three polls cited seems to reflect differing poll methodology, namely the distinction between registered voters and likely voters. The internals of the Quinnipiac poll do not reflect any major shift of opinion regarding Specter.
For Toomey, that coin has two sides. Right now, likely voters are disproportionately supportive of his candidacy (Tea Parties and all that). Further, Specter is engaged in a primary battle with Joe Sestak, and has yet to define himself as the sort of moderate candidate he will assuredly become. It’s also possible that Rasmussen’s “likely voter” model is off (it has had mixed results this year).
Carney // Mar 4, 2010 at 10:12 am
bamboozer, Santorum, while running openly as a movement conservative, won two statewide races, which is not to be dismissed. Yes, he lost in 2006, but arguably that was not necessarily because he was conservative. Aside from the unfavorable national climate, there were three new factors in place:
1. With his focus on national and world politics, his rising in the Senate leadership, and an eye on the White House, Santorum had neglected his state and his constituents, cardinal no-no. At worst, taking care of the home folks is the vegetables you have to eat in order to enjoy the dessert of running with the big boys. Jesse Helms pushed the envelope even for his state as far as he could get away with, but was assiduous about staying in touch with the people, and had a first class constituent service operation.
2. Santorum is a policy man, not a people person. That’s fine, but he failed to work to overcome this, and his interest in ideas and his impatience with having to spend time with ordinary people became increasingly obvious; he just came off on TV and in person as arrogant and not a “nice” guy. This matters to many people. Again, Helms was warm, took his time, and the soul of courtesy to everyone he met.
3. Just two years before, Santorum had infuriated and alienated many in his own base by not only endorsing but also aggressively campaigning for Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey in their iconic primary battle in 2004, especially in the crucial final weekend. The importance of this cannot be overstated. Toomey was surging in the final weeks of this closed primary, and only an all-out effort by Santorum and Bush (at the height of his popularity), who both put their credibility on the line and personally assured primary voters of Specter’s conservative bona fides, blunted Toomey’s momentum and caused him to fall just short in a 48-52 heartbreaker.
Crucially, the usual excuse proffered for supporting the squish, that he is the only candidate who can win the general, was NOT TRUE this time. Toomey was a proven winner, having not only served three terms in the House from a Democratic district, including having won in a presidential year when the Democratic nominee carried PA. Furthermore, Santorum himself was living proof that an unapologetic conservative could win statewide.
With these blunders, Santorum fumbled away a winnable seat. But they have nothing to do with being too conservative.
franco 2 // Mar 4, 2010 at 11:23 am
Specter is now a Democrat (officially) and Frummers are STILL rooting for him! No one pushed Specter out of the Republican party, you dweeb. Specter has another option – retire as a Republican.
But Jeb Golinkin apparently was taught that Senators were anointed for life. As ar as Jeb is concerned Kennedy, Specter, Byrd were born into the Senate and are entitled to die there. Here’s a young lad who WANTS to be ruled by doddering fools old enough to be his great-grandfather! How cool is that?