RSS Feed MenuThe betting markets are too thin to rely on for this cycle, but they do fit with my general read on the situation: McDonnell wins, Hoffman wins, Christie loses.
ON MCDONNELL: What can I say? It’s been just a wonderfully run, and a wonderfully lucky, campaign all the way through. Let’s hope that it extends down to the assembly level, so that something resembling McDonnell’s policy papers can actually get passed. The goal should be ads in four years stating, “They said it would be dead on arrival…”
ON HOFFMAN: Some big shifts in the race over the weekend, of course, but ultimately I think Hoffman will pull it out. When Dede was competitive, I was pretty close to making an argument for Bill Owens for tactical reasons. I didn’t want to see Owens pull out a plurality victory, I didn’t want a liberal Republican to win over a moderate Democrat, I didn’t think Scozzafava would drop as fast, and I didn’t think Hoffman would get competitive. So, I was wrong, but what I was not wrong about was the strength of the Owens vote; he is a good candidate. It won’t be enough, though, and here’s why. Think about it: if Scozzafava can’t even deliver the vote of her own spokesman, how is she going to sway the district?
ON CHRISTIE: Sorry, New Jersey, but the Daggett votes are going to shift to Corzine and he’ll ultimately pull it out. Daggett voters will decide that they’d rather not have adversarial, gridlocked government for the next four years, and will hope against hope that Corzine is finding his way to the right policy mix that will get the state to muddle through. New Jersey voters will also be hoping for some economic “coordination” on the national policy front, and they should get it. After all, the New Jersey governor’s race will be Obama’s one and only successful initiative this year.
I hope I’m wrong about that last one, but hey.
balconesfault // Nov 2, 2009 at 9:16 am
Think about it: if Scozzafava can’t even deliver the vote of her own spokesman, how is she going to sway the district?
Scozzafava pulling out has already meant the labor endorsement for Owens (Scozzafava’s husband is president of the local Central Labor Council of the AFL-CIO, and labor unions had stayed neutral up to this weekend).
Given that everyone for whom the labor endorsement was a negative would already have been committed to vote for Hoffman, that will only be a positive for Owens.
DFL // Nov 2, 2009 at 11:00 am
Picking McDonnell to win is too easy. I predict he will disappoint all those Northern Virginians who think that McDonnell can fix the sprawl-hell which is Northern Virginia. Until Northern Virginia severly restricts building and development, no amount of roadbuilding will resolve the traffic mess there.
Hoffman and Christie will win. Harner out in the San Francisco suburbs will lose. Homesexual marriage in Maine will lose.
sinz54 // Nov 3, 2009 at 10:13 am
The betting on Intrade on the NJ race has shifted in the last couple of days. Previously, it was as high as 70% for Corzine to win. Now it’s down to roughly 50%, reflecting the closeness of the race there now.
Christie would have a decent chance–except that NJ matches Chicago when it comes to voter fraud. If Corzine’s men can finagle the race by targeting minority precincts with a flood of absentee ballots over the past two weeks (or just having dead citizens vote), he still might be able to pull it out.
balconesfault // Nov 3, 2009 at 11:16 am
or just having dead citizens vote
I’m surprised you didn’t yell ACORN!
Then again, left wing conspiracy enthusiasts could point out that we still don’t have the source code from Sequoia Voting Systems (though they last week agreed to release the source code next year) … leaving one more election in the hands of large corporations to tally the results.