Playing to Palin’s Base

July 9th, 2010 at 12:32 pm | 21 Comments |

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David Frum suggests that potential 2012 GOP contender Sarah Palin isn’t making much of an effort to reach out to urban voters. Let me play devil’s advocate on this one: Palin isn’t making much of an effort because a) she has no legitimate shot at attracting the support of urban voters and b) the GOP’s strategy for the past 50 years has been to concede urban voters to the Democrats and focus on attracting exurban and suburban voters. If Palin cannot possibly attract urban support, try why even bother trying?

Yes, tadalafil the GOP “acted stupidly” by writing off the urban vote in the 1960s, tadalafil but history can’t be changed — and even if it could be, Palin certainly isn’t the one to do so. Palin’s sole chance at winning in 2012 is by maximizing the exurban and suburban vote. She does not have the ability to woo urban voters from the Democrats — and she obviously knows it.


Originally published at Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene.

Recent Posts by D.R. Tucker



21 Comments so far ↓

  • Rabiner

    I hear if you want to run a country, alienating the large population centers around the country isn’t the most effective way to do it. By failing to even attempt to ‘woo’ these voters, she’s just ignoring them and will an ignored population be willing to be governed by a person who ignores them?

  • msmilack

    First, I really hope we are all wrong about the possibility of Palin being chosen as a candidate but in the event we are not, is it possible someone will hope to take advantage of her appeal to that limited segment of the population i.e. hoping that the presidential candidate will appeal to the others? I don’t think that strategy will work but I could imagine someone thinking it might. When Romney first started talking nicely about her, and when Scott Brown said in an early interview that he felt she was qualfied to be president I thought exactly that at the time; that a) they were both afraid of alienating her but b) they might want to use her to get those votes. On the other hand, if the election is anything like the last one, the appearance of Palin on the ticket should cancel out the voters who would go for Romney or Brown as happened with McCain.

  • Stranded Wind

    I departed the GOP in 2004 after that swiftboat nonsense and the less information I get from corporate media the less inclined I am to EVER vote for another Republican.

    This being said, Sarah Palin is a hazard to national security bequeathed to us by John McCain’s undead presidential dreams. If the United States should tip from democracy into theocracy she’ll be the one to do it. If the GOP has any hope of being taken seriously they all need to stand up at once and shut down her nonsense.

  • JeninCT

    Was it really necessary to unearth THAT photograph? I get that you dislike Palin, but really, heading with that photo is just plain sexist.

  • TheArtOfDiet

    Around the world warfare is won by using non-urban population to attack urban centers. The notion that Palin can’t win without the big city support is nonsense.

    You must count the votes at the end in order to know if you win or not. If Palin captures the heart of 51% females and 51% males, that’s enough.

  • Demosthenes

    Her strategy is perfect is her target audience is evangelical white right wing rural/exurban/suburban voters. This crowd is completely uninterested in facts (much like their hero Ms. Palin) and just love her. She only needs to win a majority of delegates from the Republican primaries in ’12 to get the nomination, so Ms. Palin has the correct strategy. Of course, unless something crazy happens she would be dead meat in the election itself if the Republicans were stupid enough to nominate her, but as Mr. Frum knows Ms. Palin isn’t exactly a deep strategic thinker, is she?

  • Diomedes

    Playing to Palin’s base is easy. Just do the following:

    1) Be a good looking yet vacuous woman
    2) Say “Aw shucks” a minimum of three times per paragraph of speech
    3) Be ignorant of social, political and societal issues
    4) Be a member of the NRA
    5) Be Christian (non-Mormon of course)
    6) Develop nervous twitch in the form of repeated winking
    7) Watch Nascar

  • Danny_K

    Do you mean “urban” as in cities or “urban” as in Black? Frum was pretty clearly talking about people of color in his post.

  • Chris

    Jen,

    I wonder if the post author was attempting to, well, play to Palin’s base?

  • JeninCT

    Chris, if Palin’s base is teenaged boys, then yeah, he was playing to her base. Otherwise it’s transparently insulting to Palin.

  • gmckee1985

    Who cares? Palin isn’t going to be the GOP nominee. She’ll continue to play a role with rural, christian conservatives, especially females. Nothing wrong with that, but let’s not pretend she’s going to be anywhere near the presidency.

  • JeninCT

    Go ahead and underestimate her if it makes you happy.

  • hopitab

    Good Heavens!! Is she really running for the presidency? I thought she was in it mostly for money and attention. How many Frumform readers think she means to run? Or that she could win?

    Urban voters isn’t simply a code phase for black. I don’t think her support among city-dwelling white voters will be much either.

  • searchlight

    Can there be any doubt that Palin wants to be president?

    Even if she fails in this endeavour in 2012 and 2016, time is on her side. She’s only 46. She may still be a candidate in 2024, at 60. Or even at 64 in 2028. In 2032, she will be 4 years younger than John McCain was when she was his running mate.

    She has many options – run for the Senate in 2014, which could set her up nicely for a presidential run in 2020. Perhaps another VP run. A stint as RNC Chair, like George HW Bush before her. Or a lucrative run in talk radio, maybe with an appointment to run a conservative charity on the side – biding her time all the while.

    The woman is a walking, talking disaster, but can’t be counted out – possibly for many years to come.

  • westony

    @Searchlight
    By 2020 Palin will be old news. The same way Hillary was out of favor. There are too many others who are younger with “far” less baggage than Pay-lin. And frankly tons more intelligence. John Huntsman is a great candidate for the GOP in 2016. Chris Christie may decide to run. And who knows there a probably others.
    Palin was on O’Reilly with him coddling her as usual. Speaking in “drivel”. Pay-lin is a media creation and supported by the media.
    I heard a “white male” say I would happily vote Conservative, but if they run that “nitwit” Pay-lin I’ll vote for Stephen Colbert first. Isn’t that guy suppose to be her base. The GOP will “laugh” and “praise Pay-lin in public. But behind the scenes they will keep her from even getting the nomination. In 2012 if she can get pass Huckabee (leading), Romney and possibly Christie (a Republican) darling in a debate. She still must face Pres Obama. And he’s just as ruthless as the other candidates, if NOT more so. Palin gave him plenty of ammunition. n (i.e. imaginary Death Panels that won her the “liar of the year award from Politico)

  • jquintana

    Let Palin play to her base while Obama lurches to the left. By 2013, they’ll both be irrelevant, and that’s a good trade-off.

  • jquintana

    Diomedes // Jul 9, 2010 at 3:20 pm:

    “Playing to Palin’s base is easy”

    Playing to Obama’s base is easy, too. Just do the following:

    1) Be a good looking yet vacuous man
    2) Say “(insert name here) is in the house” a minimum of three times per speech
    3) Be ignorant of social, political and societal issues outside of inner cities
    4) Be a member of the ACLU
    5) Be Christian (only when campaigning of course)
    6) Develop dependency on teleprompters, even when speaking before grade schoolers
    7) Watch March Madness and pick the two top seeds to win before the tournament starts

  • Rabiner

    jquintana:

    “1) Be a good looking yet vacuous man
    2) Say “(insert name here) is in the house” a minimum of three times per speech
    3) Be ignorant of social, political and societal issues outside of inner cities
    4) Be a member of the ACLU
    5) Be Christian (only when campaigning of course)
    6) Develop dependency on teleprompters, even when speaking before grade schoolers
    7) Watch March Madness and pick the two top seeds to win before the tournament starts”

    I fail to see what is wrong with #4. Something the ACLU did that upset you? I think defending civil liberties is a pretty note worthy cause, especially when they do it for the person who tends to be in the minority of society on an issue.

    Why is Obama ‘vacuous’? Claiming he isn’t Christian is just ignorant of facts. How has he been ignorant of ‘social, political, and societal issues outside of inner cities’? The other things you mention are just petty.

  • anniemargret

    And seriously now….when did it become a requirement for the POTUS to be a Christian, overtly or covertly? Is it possible for our country to elect a person that isn’t Christian, or do we just profess a superficial regard for separation of church and state?

    I am less concerned if the POTUS thumps the Bible every chance he/she gets, than it is for him/her to show some smarts and common sense about the world and our role in it. We are electing a world leader, not a minister or priest.

    Searchlight: I agree with your views on Palin. The only thing I disagree is that she will be continuing force. Frankly, she has already ebbed. By the time the Presidential campaigns roll around in 2012, and the ads run against her (she didn’t even know why we were fighting in Iraq; her ‘death threats’ and her drill, baby, drill will come back to haunt her), people will have seen the light. She will be overexposed. She is a media sensation the way Paris Hilton was….and everyone sooner or later gets tired of media sensations.

    She’s hit her stride. Making money off writing autobios’ (did you hear about the children’s version bio of herself that will be coming out shortly?) and trying to be the female version of Rush Limbaugh. Even the Fox staff is getting tired of her.

  • anniemargret

    one more thing about Palin….she is basically an agitator. She is also a fear-mongerer. As such, the American people have never really appreciated agitators for Presidents or VPs. She doesn’t have a positive message unless it is warmongering, as she is also a neocon. Her message is one of negativity and fear .

    Some people of course, thrive on it. They will vote for her more as an anti-Obama vote than any real appreciation of her abilities (of which she has little). People like positive messages and they like people who can lead a nation, instead of dividing it.

    Good Lord….does she ever divide! She’s a master of it.

  • jquintana

    Rabiner // Jul 10, 2010 at 7:43 pm

    “How has he been ignorant of ’social, political, and societal issues outside of inner cities’? The other things you mention are just petty.”

    I was merely satirizing the earlier post of Diomedes, who stated the following:

    “Playing to Palin’s base is easy. Just do the following:

    1) Be a good looking yet vacuous woman
    2) Say “Aw shucks” a minimum of three times per paragraph of speech
    3) Be ignorant of social, political and societal issues
    4) Be a member of the NRA
    5) Be Christian (non-Mormon of course)
    6) Develop nervous twitch in the form of repeated winking
    7) Watch Nascar”

    That’s all.