I went to bed last night with a sense of satisfaction regarding my state of New Jersey that I haven’t felt in quite a long time. The election of a Republican governor though was less a vote for Chris Christie than a vote against unpopular Governor Corzine. Corzine seemed unable or unwilling to take on the Democratic machine while corruption ran amok, spending fueled by the highest property taxes in the nation spiraled out of control and unemployment crept to just under 10%. The third party challenge of Chris Daggett was expected to draw votes from Christie yet according to exit polls, two-thirds of Daggett voters said they approved of Obama suggesting his supporters were leaning Democratic.
The significance of the Republican gubernatorial victories in both traditionally Democratic New Jersey and the “new swing state” of Virginia should not be underestimated by the Democrats. Both Bob McDonnell and Christie won by larger than expected margins that Robert Gibbs cannot spin away. On the economy, the voters did not buy Obama’s excuses that we are still suffering from the calamitous policies of his predecessor. Billboards had sprung up throughout New Jersey showing Christie’s face plastered side by side with George W. Bush’s, but voters were indifferent to such a dubious nexus. The future of the Democratic majority in Congress as well as Obama’s hold on the White House will ride squarely on the shoulders of an economic recovery with jobs attached. The single most disconcerting result for Democrats though has to be that by a 2 to 1 margin in Virginia, and by almost as much in New Jersey, self-described independents sided with the GOP — the same independents who backed Obama in 2008.
Still, Republicans should be cautiously optimistic. After all, any incumbent running in an era of high unemployment, and on the heels of the worst economic implosion in seventy years was bound to have an uphill battle. And as the NY-23 special election shows, Democrats with the right message are still able to withstand the ideological slings and arrows from talk radio and Wasilla to be elected in traditionally GOP districts. Perhaps the GOP can be both comforted and cautioned by Churchill’s famous phrase: “This is not the end. This is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
7 responses so far
1 Oneon1isto // Nov 4, 2009 at 3:19 pm
More than anything, the votes in NJ and VA show that voters don’t connect their own personal gubernatorial races to national politics, but to the politics of their state, and that even a still-popular Obama is unable to swing this. Good for those voters.
You compare indies who broke for Obama in ‘08 with indies who broke for Christie yesterday. This is fallacy. You can compare independent numbers all you want, but the constituencies of people who vote in off-years are entirely different than those who vote in national years. To draw that conclusion is to ignore not only specifics of off-year elections, but the specifics of each race.
Tea-leaves (and wake up call) this is not.
2 ottovbvs // Nov 4, 2009 at 5:52 pm
……These were races dominated by local issues….in VA the Dems had a weak candidate who essentially ran against all the presidents policies…….In NJ despite all Corzine’s problems Christie won by a 4% margin……which is just the same margin that Owen won by in a rock solid Republican seat…….it would be easy to claim there was an Obama factor in NY 23…..there wasn’t any more than there was in VA and NJ. By the weekend these two races will be forgotten while there will be quite a lot of residue from from the Hoffman debacle although it will be entirely confined to the GOP…….when folks start quoting Churchill (on the battle of El Alamein of all subjects) you know they scraping the bottom of the barrel.
3 Raider1 // Nov 4, 2009 at 6:53 pm
otto, with each post you show yourself to be more of an ideologue and a pedant to boot. In short the kind of guy you pray not to be stuck next to on a long flight.
You are basically saying you attach nor significance to two Republicans winning in: a) New Jersey–a state heavily democratic that had a governor outspend the challenger 2.5 to 1 or thereabouts; b) Virginia that, just one year ago, voted for a democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 44 years. Keep humming with your hands over your ears.
Of course the races were local. But what were the people in NJ especially rejecting? High taxes, out of control government and corruption…sounds like Obama’s admin. to me so far (certainly the first two and arguments can be made for the third). In VA McDonnell positioned himself solidly on (real) conservative ideals.
And seriously, what the hell is your problem with Schaeffer quoting Churchill? Are you so transparently desperate to show how “educated” you are that you need to criticize him using a wonderful play on words like Sir Winston was so adept at using? (Given the historical themes of much of Schaeffer’s articles, I am pretty sure that he too knows that quote was about El Alamein…and now we now that YOU know too. And wasn’t that really the point of your last line? You are so laughably sad my man. Sooo sad.)
4 sinz54 // Nov 4, 2009 at 8:44 pm
Oneon1isto:
The constituencies of people who vote in the usual Presidential election years, let alone congressional election years, were different than the ones who turned out to vote for Obama.
Rarely do young people vote in large numbers, but they turned out in huge numbers to vote for Obama.
Black voters turn out in large numbers only when there’s a candidate running who is either black himself or panders to blacks. They turned out in huge numbers to vote for Obama.
But last night’s results suggest that these phenomena won’t be repeated for anyone else but Obama himself.
The election of 2008 was unique, because of the unique nature of the Dem presidential candidate. Don’t think that blacks and youth are going to turn out in huge numbers to vote for some middle-aged white Dem candidate in 2010.
5 ottovbvs // Nov 5, 2009 at 9:03 am
Raider1 // Nov 4, 2009 at 6:53 pm
……..Can’t you make any argument without throwing in 50% ad homs?….. Quoting Churchill in the context of a couple of governor’s races in an off year is a question of scale……..it’s a bit like comparing pavement artistry with Titian……not that one would expect you to appreciate such nuance……..I know conservatives have a weakness for this sort of hyperbole (eg. Obama is Hitler, Hussein was Hitler, containing terrorism is WW 3, etc etc) but it’s awfully silly.
6 Raider1 // Nov 5, 2009 at 10:31 am
Otto…as Reagan would say “there you go again.” (Oh, gosh, am I allowed to quote him in this context or does this not jibe with your sense of “scale.” I mean, after all what is a mere blog compared to a presidential debate right?) “…it’s a bit like comparing pavement artistry with Titian……” My God man you just cannot help but try to appear “edjumicated.” Who is this TIT-eee-in fella ya’ll be talking about.
As for hyperbole being a conservative trait? How about Bush=Hitler, Bush=World’s #1 Terrorist, Global Warming, AIDS will be #1 killer in America, 30 Million Uninsured (really?) etc.
I resort to ad hominum with you because you are so obviously a poster child for the insecure, faux intellectual who feels the need to parade limited acdemic credentials to give substance to empty points. You are so pathetic in your banality that you are unable to see in yourself.
7 Raider1 // Nov 5, 2009 at 10:41 am
And back to the point. Please tell me how it is (beyond blind ideology) that you cannot see significance in the trouncing McDonnel handed out in VA especially?
Do you honestly believe that the independents who, in two seperate state elections in two deifferent demograohics, economies, cultures etc. one a solid democratic bastion the other being touted as a new “purple” state (the color of your face I guess when the election results came int) who both voted 2:1 in favor fo the republican (and who voted for Obama a mere 12 months ago) do not indicate that at least at some level a rejection of the Obama agenda was partly in play here? Corzine actually outspent Chirstie by FOUR to one and Obama vistsed both states many times.
The dmes called VA a “bellweather” before the election and attached much signifcance to a Corzine victory (which they expected) as an affirmation of Obamamania…until they lost. (Christie’s margin in NJ was larger than Whitman’s back in 1993 even). Now suddenly Axelrod is out their spinning that these were insignificant results and Pelosi even trying to tout Tuesday as a victory?
What is it like to be such a prsioner of your desperate desires to cling to the world as you wish it were that you are blinded to the truth…and have the stubborness of the small-minded to go down swinging rather than accept things as they are (pedantic use of words and googled references to dead artists aside)?
You must log in to post a comment.