Five months ago, the conventional wisdom in Washington was that Obama would achieve a transformational healthcare victory by the August recess. Obama, as “sort of God,” was certainly capable of marshaling support for comprehensive health care reform.
When that deadline became unrealistic, the conventional wisdom turned in favor of a healthcare victory lap sometime when Congress returned in September.
Then the floor fell out, and the conventional wisdom shifted again. The CBO scores wrecked any O-mentum and the town halls erupted. Now, Obama might have to scale back his ambitious agenda for healthcare reform. But rest assured, Congress would give him a bill, he would sign ’something called health care reform,’ and any mojo lost in the fight over healthcare would be quickly restored as the President took his victory lap for this historic legislative achievement.
When the conventional wisdom on Obamacare shifted this last time, I turned to Mrs. Clay and said I wish Vegas was taking bets on this, because I would go all-in on the conventional wisdom shifting yet again.
And so it might. Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) had the following to say last week at a town hall meeting in Wisconsin.
Nobody is going to bring a bill before Christmas, and maybe not even then, if this ever happens.
If there is any hard and fast rule to be learned in Washington, it is that the conventional wisdom is rarely worth the paper the pundits write it on.
Right now, my money is on Senator Feingold’s currently unconventional prediction, proving conventional come Thanksgiving.
And the pundits will have seen it coming all along.
6 responses so far
1 joedee1969 // Aug 26, 2009 at 8:28 am
I found something that is anything but conventional wisdom but seems very wise:
http://americaspeaksink.com/2009/08/the-office-of-the-presidency-must-end/
2 sinz54 // Aug 26, 2009 at 9:31 am
On Intrade, the current betting on ObamaCare being passed in 2009 are Bid: 27.5; Ask: 37.6.
It did take a small hit in the last day or so, probably owing to both Feingold’s statement and the death of Ted Kennedy.
But the betting has never been above 50% since June.
3 ottovbvs // Aug 26, 2009 at 6:17 pm
…….Why don’t we check back in say three months……Clay may be anticipating……he of course is a public employee so that means we’re all paying for his gold plated health plan while he campaigns against the rest of us enjoying even access to the sort of healthcare he enjoys
4 rbottoms // Aug 26, 2009 at 9:06 pm
Despite the hysteria of the last few weeks, particularly in the face of the gun toting opposition, I think Obama is going to came back from vacation ready to kick a** and take names. Enough of the bi-partisan outreach, since it’s clear all we’ll get back is a bloody stump.
5 rbottoms // Aug 27, 2009 at 2:19 am
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