RSS Feed MenuIn his dealings with House Republicans over the stimulus bill, President Obama showed that he knows how to play hardball. With the Iranians, however, its been more like T-ball.
To advance their nuclear program, the Iranians have been playing for time. Mr. Obama opened his presidency by conceding them more. Now he is conceding the principle that Iran’s nuclear program can somehow be tied to Israeli concessions on West Bank settlements.
What we have gained by these opening gambits is less than clear. If you were seeking a successful conclusion to any endeavor, the very last thing you would want to tie it to is an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord. Again: time favors Iran. Why would we want to condition our approach to Iran on anything that moves as slowly as the Palestinian problem?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shares none of these delusions. He understands quid pro quo, and isn’t giving anything away. He is trying to keep the focus on Iran and off the Palestinians, and he is not willing to bargain with the security of the state of Israel as part of any deal with Iran. He knows that making any concessions at this point is only a sign of weakness that will encourage the enemy to stall for more time, break agreements, and circumvent sanctions. If Mr. Obama does not take care, Iran will likely enter the club of nuclear powers as a member with full voting rights. Mr. Obama, by tightening the noose on Israel, you have only encouraged Iran, Hamas, Syria and all the other agents of terror to proceed… nice move… don’t forget your umbrella on the way out.
We Americans have such a desire for peace that we are often prepared to offer unconditional concessions in order to gain it. We expect that if, in the spirit of good faith, we make a concession, then, in the same spirit, the opposition will accept our terms. They might even throw in a concession on their part. In the Middle East, these illusions can be very costly. When you visit the nuclear souk, Mr. Obama, you had best come prepared to drive some tough bargains.
Originally posted at STORMBRINGER.
LeeHotchkiss // May 25, 2009 at 9:44 pm
The reality is that Netanyahu and Obama are dealing with different problems. Right now the top priority for America is preventing a nuclear disaster with the already existing and functioning nuclear weapons and the safety of thousands of US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. Right now stability of Iran is more important to the United States than whether Iran gets nuclear weapons in two years or five years. Obama’s strategy is clearly in the best interest of the United States. Whether Netanyahu’s strategy is the best interest of Israel is debatable, but it certainly isn’t in the best interest of the United States.
LeeHotchkiss // May 25, 2009 at 10:36 pm
“Bibi” decided to join in spitting in America’s face by joining the movement to take time a massive attack of Gaza during our transition of government. I wonder how he feels, that hardball played out. Finally we have a President who “speaks” Israeli!
danbmil99 // May 26, 2009 at 1:26 am
It’s becoming increasingly obvious that DF’s New Majority is neo-conservative with a little dialing back of far-right, christian evangelical social conservatism.I think I may want off the bus. I’m more inclined to agree with Pat Buchanan or Ron Paul on foreign policy than the likes of Norman Podhoretz.Here’s a link to a pretty cogent description of what the GOP has become. Yes, it’s the huffpost, so skip it if you take your information with a litmus test. Personally I read left-wing blogs *and* listen to right-wing radio. I like to hear multiple points of view before I make up my mind.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-schaeffer/republican-disaster—-th_b_205388.html?
Jean Granville // May 26, 2009 at 1:56 am
By tying US Iran policy to the events of the Middle East, Mr Obama implies that the Iranian bomb is not a global concern. That seems consistent with his campaign statement that Iran is too small to ever be a threat to America.Overall, Obama’s Iran policy looks more like a rationnalization of inaction than anything else. Tying any action to the Middle East peace process may allow him to put the blame on Israel for the eventual existence of an Iranian nuclear arsenal, but that is a bit cheap.
Tehran Soul Bro // May 26, 2009 at 4:19 am
“there’s nothing like the smell of infidels burning in the morning.”
Tehran Soul Bro // May 26, 2009 at 4:22 am
“it smells like…victory.”
ottovbvs // May 26, 2009 at 5:17 am
Unfortunately Linnane nurses the fantasy like most on the far right that there is anything very much that can be done to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. After all his side had eight years in which to accomplish it and despite all the saber rattling by Bush and the moustache rattling by Bolton they didn’t stop it by one minute. Rather by their reckless policies in the middle east they enabled Iranian emergence as a regional hegemon and made it’s acquisition of nuclear weapons a foregone conclusion. The notion that the US, or Israel for that matter, is going to embark on a war with Iran to prevent this from happening is moonshine.
Bulldoglover100 // May 26, 2009 at 5:17 am
LOL Really? and who has paid YOU to offer advice and direction on something you would stand and pee down your leg if faced with in real time? I love you computer jockeys who have no experience on anything other than opening your pie hole and leaking spit.Give it up Sean yaour still that kid in HS that was a joke.
Tehran Soul Bro // May 26, 2009 at 6:19 am
North Korea agreed not to develop nuclear weapons with Jimmy Carter, special envoy of Bill Clinton. We will reach the same agreement with Barack Obama. The world has nothing to fear from Iran, we only want nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The Embassy takeovers, the bombings, the support for Hezbollah, that was all long ago.
VA Shepherd // May 26, 2009 at 7:02 am
President Obama is doing the best he can and it is very unfair for Mr. Linnane to be so critical when the President is new at his job. Also, that beastly Benjamin Netanyahu is simply not helping at all to halt the Iranian nuclear program at all by refusing to submit to President Obama’s directives!
sinz54 // May 26, 2009 at 7:18 am
ottovbvs: With Hezbollah as Iran’s protege, Israel’s strategic position in the Middle East will be untenable if Iran gets the bomb. Israel will have to live forever with the possibility of Hezbollah terrorists exploding bombs inside Israeli territory. Israel is a tiny country; just two or three bombs could finish it off. Some of the Iranian leadership’s statements border on the insane. They might conclude that Israel wouldn’t want to launch a genocidal nuclear war against Iran even after it was attacked. I don’t want to depend on Iran’s fear of nuclear retaliation to deter them.Osama bin Laden wasn’t deterred by fear of U.S. retaliation. He launched 9-11 anyway.
barker13 // May 26, 2009 at 8:18 am
Re: Danbmil99; 1:26 AM –”I think I may want off the bus. I’m more inclined to agree with Pat Buchanan or Ron Paul on foreign policy than the likes of Norman Podhoretz.”Yep. (*NOD*)Funny… (ironic funny)… I’m presently reading Buchanan’s “Day of Reckoning,” which (I believe) came out in ‘07.Buchanan is MOSTLY right – and by “right” I mean correct. He’s been mostly right all along. Sure, not 100% right; sure, wrong on predictions, facts, and even arguably positions now and then, but by and large you can go through decades of Buchanan’s writings and speeches and interviews and the guy has been – overall – pretty damned prescient.BILL
balconesfault // May 26, 2009 at 8:19 am
“Osama bin Laden wasn’t deterred by fear of U.S. retaliation. He launched 9-11 anyway.”Osama bin Laden never controlled more territory than a cave. Nihilism is much more prevolent among the disaffected who have abandoned the process, than among those who control the process.
HHomer // May 26, 2009 at 8:25 am
Peace between Israel and the Palestinians will bring massive dividends for all concerned (except the Iranians). It therefore makes perfect sense for Obama to concentrate his efforts where the US has real leverage. The ongoing conflict just pushes Arab sentiment towards Iran. Hezbollah and Hamas need Iranian support. A mutually satisfactory resolution in Israel/Palestine will give scope to separate the Arab world from Persian Iran and isolate the ayatollahs.
barker13 // May 26, 2009 at 8:34 am
Re: Danbmil99; 1:26 AM –”Here’s a link to a pretty cogent description of what the GOP has become. Yes, it’s the huffpost, so skip it if…”No. You’re right. It was a good read. I’ll gladly second your recommendation. Still… if McCain is or ever was “the answer,” then by God (pun intended!) I don’t want to hear the question!Hey… the way some of my fellow posters react to the Religious Right… that’s the way I react to mention of McCain. Furthermore, to those who would say, “well, how about the McCain of 2000,” my reply is that if the McCain of 2000 was indeed the “real McCain,” what does it say about him that he trampled upon so many of the “McCain 2000 principles” in 2006-2008…???”Personally I read left-wing blogs *and* listen to right-wing radio.”As do I. Hey… bottom line… the more exposure one has to straight info as well as views echoing one’s own as well as opposite views and analysis… the better.BILL
sinz54 // May 26, 2009 at 10:13 am
HHomer: I agree with you about the need to isolate Iran from the Sunni Arabs.But I stand by my statement: If Iran gets the bomb, Israel’s strategic position in the Middle East is finished. There will be no way to deter, or otherwise prevent, a catastrophic nuclear attack on Israel that will finish it as a viable nation.
Baghdad_Bob // May 26, 2009 at 5:07 pm
The Iranians aren’t making nuclear weapons, but they will destroy Israel in 1 strike!
Tehran Soul Bro // May 26, 2009 at 7:57 pm
First we destroy the little Satan (Israel). This will lure in the Great Satan (America), and they will throw their soldiers in the fire! No, no, no, this is for peaceful purposes only! We are only trying to develop another source of energy. Israel will cease to exist! We will crush it with a single blow!
danbmil99 // May 26, 2009 at 11:22 pm
sinz54: “But I stand by my statement: If Iran gets the bomb, Israel’s strategic position in the Middle East is finished. There will be no way to deter, or otherwise prevent, a catastrophic nuclear attack on Israel that will finish it as a viable nation.”I’m not sure I agree. Of course it’s scary to think we may have to wait and see if you’re right.Note that while they talk a great game of martyrdom, the powerbrokers of Islamic fundamentalism always send out dumb, brainwashed kids to blow themselves up. I suspect they have just enough pragmatic sense to not want to actually die in this life immediately.Israel’s nuclear threat is pretty convincing. For all the sabre rattling, the Cold War didn’t end in nuclear annihilation. Pakistan/India have sputtered and spewed but so far kept their fingers off the button.Not saying this is a great state of affairs, I just think it’s a bit naive to assume actual suicidal tendencies on the part of a large, heterogeneous nation/state.One could even argue (at least hope) that the reality of nuclear capability would push some of the Iranian moderates to risk a bit more and get into the political arena as best they can. Who knows what really goes on behind the scenes over there? It’s a complex country, without a clear, unequivocal leadership (which is also a risk factor I concede).
VA Shepherd // May 27, 2009 at 4:16 am
Reading some of these posters you’d be excused for thinking WWII had never happened:danbmil99: “Not saying this is a great state of affairs, I just think it’s a bit naive to assume actual suicidal tendencies on the part of a large, heterogeneous nation/state.”balconesfault: “Osama bin Laden never controlled more territory than a cave. Nihilism is much more prevolent among the disaffected who have abandoned the process, than among those who control the process.”Consider the behavior of Germany and Japan at the end of WWII. These posters might consider Germany and Japan to be freak events, yet both countries were well-established and highly advanced societies that were high jacked by totalitarian thugs (not unlike Iran). Both of their wars started out conventionally enough, their leadership emboldened by a lack of response from the free powers (sounds familiar). Both states basically ordered suicide on a national level, Hitler by direct order (never carried out). Just imagine what they would have done to their enemies if they had gotten the bomb first.No, the peace loving Iranians are nothing to worry about…I don’t know about the above posters, but you can bet the Israelis haven’t forgotten their history lessons.