NY Governor’s Race – Winnable, but Not by Lazio

The 2010 race for Governor of New York has begun. Its participants are still being sorted out.

Now that former New York Rep. Rick Lazio is seeking to run for Governor of New York, the question is not whom he’ll face in the general—unless something seismic occurs this year, that’s going to be Andrew Cuomo. The real question is who may stop him in a potential GOP primary. Thus, countless New Yorkers from both parties have been asking themselves, “Will Rudy run?”

At the New York GOP’s Annual State Dinner last month, Newt Gingrich admonished the Republicans in attendance to “start running against Cuomo.” The reason is obvious and well known. With a dismal 19% approval rating, Governor David Paterson is increasingly irrelevant and intensely unlikely to remain in office past January 1, 2011. The recent Marist poll explains New Yorkers’ icy feelings: 68% disapprove of his “handling of the economic crisis,” 71% disagree that he’s “changing Albany for the better,” and only 34% believe he “represents all regions of the state.”

In many ways, David Paterson is now in worse shape with his state than George W. Bush was with his country in the final months of his presidency. But unlike for Bush, Paterson’s party and its other members in New York don’t seem to be taking a hit. Despite the Governor’s unpopularity on Election Day, the Democrats still took over the state Senate for the first time in 40 years. Just last month, now-Rep. Scott Murphy trumped Jim Tedisco for now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s old congressional seat. And most recently, a Siena poll revealed that Cuomo, the state’s popular Attorney General who crushes Paterson in a hypothetic primary match-up by 53 points, would potentially beat Rudy Giuliani by 53 to 39 percent.

A lot can change between now and 2010, but a lot can stay the same too. If another year of taxes and budget cuts is what awaits New York, then the state’s voters may end up coming around to hate the whole currently unchecked Democratic Party and not just its SNL-prone messenger. More angry unions, jilted party allies, and divisive votes in the legislature would only put the party’s retentive power in greater jeopardy.

Looking to such a future, Rick Lazio, currently a JPMorgan Chase lobbyist best known for his run against Hillary Clinton for Senator in 2000, has again stepped up to the plate. The New York Daily News reports that he will launch a fundraising committee to begin raising much-needed money as early as next week.

I remember hearing Lazio speak in a relatively close-knit setting last April. He charmed an entire room of young Republican activists who had flocked to upstate New York to dine with him at a conference in Saratoga Springs. He’s likable, energetic, and conservative — very conservative. He’s a great voice for the GOP and even the conservative movement, but as a candidate for statewide office in New York during the Age of Obama, I have my concerns. As Professor Robert Turner (a common source for state/local political analysis at Skidmore College) put it, “I know conservatives really like him… [but] he doesn’t seem like the kind of candidate who can attract independents or moderates. Maybe he’s changed.” We’ll have to see.

So far, Lazio has the vocal support of Mike Long, Chairman of the New York State Conservative Party. Meanwhile, however, many Republicans throughout the state are still waiting for a candidate who can better match Cuomo’s name recognition, political resources, and fundraising capability. That candidate, of course, is Rudy Giuliani. New York State GOP Chairman Joe Mondello has given him until this fall to decide whether he wants to run or not. The sooner the Democrats are faced with a single party-backed opponent, the better.

Almost ten years ago, Lazio replaced a cancer-stricken Giuliani in a bid for higher office — and lost. Nearly a decade later, many on the New York right are hoping to see Rudy step up and take Rick’s place — and score a severely needed win. The only question now is: Will Rudy run?