The race for New York’s 23rd Congressional district could have been so simple.
Dede Scozzafava, like Jim Tedisco, was a bad pick from a dysfunctional New York Republican Party. Worse yet, she was the second pick, and the worse pick. If the conservatives of New York and the conservatives of the ACU had simply withheld their support, she would have lost well enough on her own. If they were feeling even more Machiavellian, they could have endorsed the moderate Democrat against the liberal Republican, and buried her. Message sent. Done.
But no.
They had to pretend some accountant who was gerrymandered out of the district years ago was the second coming of James Buckley, and get the money wheels a-spinning.
How was this a good plan? Really?
(For the sake of disclosure, I got this race wrong — badly wrong — in my prediction. Interestingly, I was wrong in my New Jersey and in my NY-23 predictions for the same reason. I thought the third party votes would break counterintuitively; Daggett for Corzine, Scozzafava for Hoffman. As it turned out, the Daggett voters were more moderate-conservative than I thought, and the Scozzafavans were more moderate-liberal than I hoped. I blame these two.)
Like I was saying, it could have been an embarrassment for Republicans instead of for Conservatives, but the ACU Traveling Circus had to jump in with both feet. Blogbursts, fundraising drives, Twitter hashtags, tea party coordination, demands for endorsements, flat tax advocacy (really? The Flat Tax? At least the FairTax sold books!), and to top it all off, a Glenn Beck appearance that all but proved Newt Gingrich 100% right. Everything but, you know, an intern trawling the Watertown dailies for the local issues that he’d be asked about. That would have come in handy.
So much effort. So much “activity”. So much money.
Oh well. This race was two things: not that important, and kind of a long shot once Scozzafava was endorsed, so in the end, it served as a Phony War. It gave the ACU and the disaffected conservative crowd something to do while two relatively healthy Republican establishments put it away on a grand scale in Virginia and New Jersey.
So we celebrate — and we reflect. 2010 can’t come soon enough.
19 responses so far
1 ottovbvs // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:13 am
…….I got it wrong too……I thought Corzine would squeak home and Hoffman would win reasonably comfortably…….shows it’s unwise to make electoral predictions unless it’s awfully clearcut……that said there’s a fundamental difference between the gubernatorial races, they were essentially local contests in an off year, and the NY 23 race which was also a local contest in an off year until the Limbaugh/Palin arm of the GOP decided to make it something different……..VA and NJ are going to be forgotten by the weekend but the waves from NY 23 are going to be around for awhile.
2 joemarier // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:18 am
My friend Stacy McCain illustrates the problem…
“OK, so Doug Hoffman fell 4,000 votes short of a House seat. But ask yourself this: What will Regnery pay him as a book advance?”
http://rsmccain.blogspot.com/2009/11/prediction-hoffmania-will-continue.html
*facepalm*
3 ottovbvs // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:22 am
Joe Marier // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:18 am
…….His legs aren’t as good as Palin’s
4 joemarier // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:31 am
What Jay Cost said. I agree that the Northeast is being overemphasized (sorry, David), which is another reason why the ACU crowd should have softpedaled this thing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2009/11/five_reasons_ny23_doesnt_tell.html
5 sinz54 // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:40 am
ottovbs:
The Obama administration tried hard to help Corzine and Deeds to win.
Corzine practically wrapped himself in Obama’s embrace, ads showing Obama, campaign rallies with Obama, and funds contributed by the national Democratic party. Evidently being a strong supporter of Obama didn’t help Corzine win.
Over in VA, Obama practically took personal charge of the Deeds campaign, sending his own pollster to help. And the national Democratic Party contributed $10 million to the race.
These weren’t just “local races”; the Dems, anxious to avoid a double loss, poured in funds and assistance. They lost anyway.
6 balconesfault // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:46 am
the conservatives of New York and the conservatives of the ACU had simply withheld their support, she would have lost well enough on her own
Probably not.
I’ve done work up there. What I remember is a very strong sense of loyalty to instituions (particularly Ft. Drum), and the ability of people on polar opposite sides of an issue to be remarkably civil to one another at public meetings.
In other words … the activists could have whined, Limbaugh could have said RINO 10,000 times, the Club for Growth could have run attack ads … and Scozzafava would have won comfortably, simply on Republican branding. These people might have been feeling extreme Bush fatigue, which some of them took out on McCain, but they would have likely kept electing moderate Repubs to Congress for as long as moderate Repubs are allowed to exist.
7 joemarier // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:53 am
balconesfault:
Perhaps. The 5% vote for Scozzafava was a bit telling. But the Jim Tedisco race suggests otherwise, and the ACU propaganda/spamming operation did create a pretty big surge for Hoffman. I don’t think Scozzafava was a moderate, but I think Owens is, and I think a Lieberman-style Grand Coalition was called for. Not this.
8 ottovbvs // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:53 am
sinz54 // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:40 am
………It’s pointless arguing with you Sinz because all you ever do is spin……believe what you like…..these were basically local contests……national issues had little to do with and they’ll be forgotten by the weekend but NY 23 won’t………measure the amount of blog discussion of VA/NJ v NY 23 if you want confirmation.
9 joemarier // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:55 am
Also, if NY-23 is a pretty civil district, I would have counted on Dede “The best revenge is to win” Scozzafava to have made a hash of it just as well in a two-person race.
10 DFL // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:57 am
Owens won despite his party identification because he seemed more interested in the problems of his district than did Hoffman, who seemed to relish in his ignorance of 23rd District issues. It also helped that Owens has a much more manly mien in comparison to the dorky Hoffman. Republicans need to run more muted conservatives like McDonnell and Christie who understand the nuts and bolts of parochial issues than Limbaugh/National Review/Free Republic internet flame king conservatives, most of whom seem to be legends in their own minds.
11 ottovbvs // Nov 4, 2009 at 10:00 am
balconesfault // Nov 4, 2009 at 9:46 am
“Probably not.”
………Probably not indeed…….this race would have been a typical low temperature, low turnout contest in an off off year and Scozza would have wafted to victory with very few people noticing one way or the other……now it’s a cause celebre………the results of these three races(NY/NJ/VA) have next to no informational value about wider national issues or next year…….NJ/VA will be forgotten in a week…….Owen’s arrival will make no difference to Pelosi’s majority in DC……..the only wake it will leave behind is one that is going to effects the internal politics of the GOP.
12 franco 2 // Nov 4, 2009 at 10:25 am
………the results of these three races(NY/NJ/VA) have next to no informational value about wider national issues or next year……
HAhahahahahaha
13 franco 2 // Nov 4, 2009 at 10:29 am
Funny how ‘off year elections” brought Obama to NJ 5 times to prop up well-funded Corzine in a azure blue State vs. a pro-life Republican. Yeah, meaningless…..
14 joemarier // Nov 4, 2009 at 10:31 am
DFL: EXACTLY. Good comment. No retired military officer with any sense would have run on the Conservative Party ticket, but that was the only way to win it. Failing that, the race should have been Lieberman/Wieker ‘88.
15 Churl // Nov 4, 2009 at 10:32 am
ottovbs is correct, “Owen’s arrival will make no difference to Pelosi’s majority in DC.”
Indeed, Scozza’s arrival in DC could have in effect increased Pelosi’s majority in DC.
As for the internal politics of the GOP, the GOP establishment may begin to realize that it is possible to get votes for candidates to the right of Arlen Specter.
16 joemarier // Nov 4, 2009 at 10:32 am
Was Christie pro-life? He did a great job de-emphasizing that. And he has 4 Supreme Justices to pick. Out of seven. WIN!
17 ProfNickD // Nov 4, 2009 at 10:59 am
The wasted effort in the district was the $900K that the RNCC spent on the Scozzafava campaign — which to me amounts to a borderline criminal act given that it mostly went to vendors and consultants close to national GOP figures.
18 joemarier // Nov 4, 2009 at 12:12 pm
ProfNickD, I know everyone’s saying that, but that’s bull. A lot of that money was spent attacking Owens, first of all, particularly when it became clear Scozzafava wasn’t going to win. The Club for Growth alone spent a cool million. How much did money and time did Freedomworks spend? How about the Susan B. Anthony List? NOM? They buried the NRCC money and time-wise, and they came up short.
19 ottovbvs // Nov 4, 2009 at 6:37 pm
……..As someone who thinks the GOP needs to go through a period of reflection in the wilderness if it’s to have any chance of returning to the real world the words of the ditchers like Prof, Franco, Churl are music to my ears……they learn nothing………when things go wrong just do more of what you were doing……Go knock yourselves out guys I wish you all the luck in the world…….a party that is totally in thrall to Palin, Limbaugh, Beck, et al has no strong appeal outside the south…..so go right ahead have fun.
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