You’re a head case.

Now you’re absurdly suggesting that you are either …

1) Qualified to assess the ability of polling respondents to intelligently wage in on the issues, based on nothing but your own devoid-of-facts opinion, or

2) That you’ve some kind of divine knowledge of the electorate’s level of knowledge, intentions and motivations.

You’re letting your narcissistic fascination with your own opinion get in the way of legitimate discourse, which I was quite enjoying until I spotted you.

Why don’t you let the big boys/gals take care of the commenting here- you go *SHRUG/CHUCKLE/SMILE* yourself happy over at townhall. They appreciate your kind.

It has become practically an article of faith among die-hard Red State conservatives that the GOP lost the 2006 congressional election because the GOP base was so disgusted with GOP politicians that they stayed away from the polls, and did not vote or campaign actively for GOP candidates.

The consequence of that (if it were true) is that the GOP leadership must do more to mollify the GOP base in the future, by turning even more to the right. That’s why you hear these incessant calls from the GOP base for the GOP to “return to conservative principles”–because the base believes that men like McCain and even George W. Bush weren’t conservative enough; and that only a “true conservative” (Sarah Palin?) would excite the base enough to get them to turn out in large numbers and win elections.

The problem is, that article of faith is false.

Exit polls confirm that in 2006, the GOP base did turn out in numbers nearly as high as in 2004. But the GOP lost the 2006 election anyway, due to a significant shift of moderate and Independent voters toward the Dems. That was even more true in 2008, and besides that you had an even more massive shift of first-time voters toward the Dems. So the consequences of that is that the GOP has to win back moderate and Independent voters, who would be more responsive to a more moderate message, especially on social issues.

But that article of faith persists. Most likely because some popular figures in conservative media are continuing to spread it.

If the economy is not doing so good he will win by normal margins ( a Bush 2004 election).

I would also predict that the GOP is in danger of losing the following Senate seats in 2010. In order of vulnerability

Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, Florida with North Carolina as a tossup.

The conservative coalition, which began in the 1950s at the height of the Cold War, was comprised of foreign-policy hawks, social conservatives, and economic conservatives. What originally held them all together was their opposition to Communism and its watered-down little brother, socialism: Foreign-policy hawks opposed Soviet expansionism; economic conservatives opposed command economies; and social conservatives opposed “Godless, atheistic communism.”

With the collapse of the USSR and the end of the Cold War, this coalition started to fall apart. And the disagreements between them have emerged: Social conservatives like Phyllis Schafly and Pat Buchanan oppose free trade and immigration; paleo-conservatives like Ron Paul and Pat Buchanan oppose foreign policy interventionism; etc.

The only way to keep the Phyllis Schlaflys and Pat Buchanans in the GOP fold, despite a foreign and economic policy they oppose, is to emphasize “God, guns and gays.”

A social conservative like Mike Huckabee is quite moderate on economic issues–he may be further to the left than Bill Clinton. What keeps Huckabee in the GOP, is God.

“…following which are largely ignorant of politics and world affairs.”

I’ll go beyond Franco’s point. I’d bet krove’s left kidney that the average respondent to such polling operates almost totally on emotion and what the “think” they know rather than operating upon having a base of factual information and being intellectually capable of analyzing said information.

In other words… the average American views politics as “sporting even” more than as an exercise in civics and government. Most people have their “team” and as for the Independents… again… how much does the average American actually KNOW about… er… issues… nuts and bolts… history…

(*SHRUG*)

Hey… to illustrate my point let me ask you folks a question:

Let’s say that over the next three years – with Obama as president, chances are with the Democrats retaining control of one or both houses of Congress thru 2012 – our economic problems continue to deepen… inflation increases, unemployment increases, interest rates start SLOWLY going up, but too slowly to dampen inflation… let’s even throw in a foreign policy crisis or two…

Now. As yourselves. Even under these circumstances (which I predict to be the circumstances in real life) would any of you absolutely count Obama out as far as winning a second term is concerned…???

To those who intelligently respond “no”… I rest my case.

BILL

I would be careful of who I refer to as a cult – cop killer Richard was a Beck fan. Maybe he wasn’t pushed but he was certainly excited beyond reason, yes too psychologically invested.

Many like David Frum have advised that stirring the pot is not wise and unless you’re nutty you would have to agree that Hilter style recruitment tactics will result in Hilter like actions.