Thanks — I enjoy many of the comments and like to take the time to engage — especially when responding can help to clarify or elucidate the issues. However, I must confess that I simply cannot take the time to respond in full to most comments. I have to work still for a living! However, it seems that many of the commenters are retired or live lives of leisure! : )

Regards,
John

………..I don’t know too much about VA other than I’ve read in places like the WSJ or NYT but quite a lot about NJ which is definitely all local…..From what I’ve read VA seems to have a particularly crazy GOP party organization down there and after year of dominance now only control one house (I believe)…….Governors are limited to one term and they’ve had two or three democrats in a row and the Dem seems to have been a weak candidate……so with a bit of luck there will be some serious over reaching down in VA just in time for 2010…….. I’m sure if they notch up to or three wins in these elections the right will claim a deluge is about to happen but then what would they say that wouldn’t they….strategic thinking is not their strong point these days……..I will say the Democrats are going to have to get energized next fall if they want to stay on top as the base of the Republicans certainly will be coming out……but they probably will, the environment in congressional election years is fairly intense these days

Well, I would hope that they would. Given that the Dems don’t really have much to write home about yet (ok, slowing the free-fall in the economy is nice, but it’s nothing to campaign on) and the rally to the ramparts by Republican activists in 2009, failure to win at least the governorship in Virginia would be a sign to call the Priest for last rites.

But there are so many balls in play right now that I think taking any meaning from this weeks election and projecting them to 2010 is a serious longshot, akin to predicting who will win the World Series based on who had the best month of September in the previous season (actually I read some NFL pundits touting SF this year based on their winning 4 of their last 5 last year … we see how well that worked).

thus any Blue Dog knows that crossing the aisle will mean the end of their political career in a very short time.

Doesn’t matter.

Nobody wants to risk their political necks to join up with a loser anyway.

The GOP’s brand is still so tarnished with the public, that even if Scozzafava had fended off the Hoffman challenge and gone on to win the election, no Blue Dogs would give a moment’s thought to switching to the GOP. What’s in it for them? The GOP, being a minority party, can’t give them committee chairmanships.

Those Dems who switched or endorsed Republicans (Campbell, Miller, Lieberman) did so at a time when the GOP seemed ascendant.

I don’t think NJ will be an endorsement of Obama, or Virginia a repudiation. Both races are far far deeper in the weeds than that

I’m hoping there will be some exit polls, that will tell us whether national or local issues were more important to the voters.

However, off-year elections are usually where the activists predominate, due to apathy among the ordinary non-activist voters. So if nothing else, these elections will be a test of whether the GOP organization, and/or the conservative movement, can still get its act together to turn out the vote for Republican candidates in VA.

Was the conservative uprising primarily motivated by:

1) fiscal issues (her support for tax/budget increases, card check, etc.)
2) social issues (gay marriage, abortion) or
3) anger stemming from the lack of a primary?

I realize that all three played a role, but is there specific issue polling available?

Hard to call it spin. I’m glad that Obama made an effort for Deeds, because the Democratic Party in Virginia definitely busted their butts for him in 2008, and he owed them for that. But there was nothing ever particularly compelling about Deeds, except that he was a far better candidate than Terry McAuliffe, who gives most people I know the creeps.

I don’t think NJ will be an endorsement of Obama, or Virginia a repudiation. Both races are far far deeper in the weeds than that – they really have everything to do with local issues, and nothing to do with national ones, particularly since none of the candidates involved are considered serious candidates for national office in the short term.

So what’s the point in continuing to wave one’s hands about a “New Majority” without ever explaining what it would look like.

I’m with you. This site has done a far better job simply of providing a relatively abuse-free public square for cross-ideology discussions, than providing any kind of a road map for how Republicans might reverse the erosion in their base.

otto whether Hoffman is closer to McHugh is purely your personal opinion there’s not quantitive way of knowing

I think there’s a very simple intellectual exercise here – does anyone believe that Hoffman, as a sitting Congressman, would accept an invitation to come work for the Obama Administration?

I suspect that if Hoffman is elected, he will end up with a 95-100 rating from the American Conservative Union … and that Scozzafava would have been more in the 50-60 range, depending on what votes are scored that year. Now which would be closer to McHugh’s 71?

I know there will be attempts to compare this to Lieberman-Lamont, but one should remember that Lieberman was actively attacking other Democrats on the issue the Democratic Party considered the most important of the time in 2006 – the nation accepting what an error it was to invade and occupy Iraq. This issue was enough of a litmus test for Dems that I truly believe it is what cost Hillary the nomination, and thus the Presidency.

It is not unreasonable for parties to have litmus tests, no matter what the Broderian/Brooksian pundits might say.

But the Hoffman race illustrates that for Republicans, potentially EVERYTHING is a litmus test today. Their litmus test isn’t an issue, but an SAT where anything but a perfect score means you’re not qualified to bear the GOP standard.

So if you’re a Nelson … a Baucus … a Schuler … you might be aggravated by DailyKos attacks on your character and ideology – but you know that as long as y0u stay with the Democrats on procedural matters, you will still be supported by the party. A Republican now has no such assurance, and thus any Blue Dog knows that crossing the aisle will mean the end of their political career in a very short time.

“Politico.com reported that the reason why the Obama administration took such a big role in the Deeds campaign,”

……..Actually the Dem in VA has notoriously run his campaign on local issues….and not well…..but who are we to stand in your way if this is what you want to believe

……..Scozza voting recocrd was middle of the road in the NYS Republican caucus……whether Hoffman is closer to McHugh is purely your personal opinion there’s not quantitive way of knowing…….McHugh’s vote was the consequence of this being a solid Republican seat and years of incumbency…….why do you keep producing non sequiturs.