RSS Feed MenuEarlier this year, with the political winds to his back, JD Hayworth had dreams of pulling off a Utah-style primary upset. And now? Not so much.
With early voting starting soon in Arizona and the primary day less than a month away (August 24th), two polls show McCain with commanding leads. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows McCain leading by 20 points. Another poll shows McCain leading by even more.
What changed? Here are the top factors that helped McCain:
1. SB 1070 stole Hayworth’s immigration spotlight
Ironically, Arizona’s strict anti-illegal immigration measure probably hurt Hayworth.
Prior to the passage of the law, JD Hayworth was Arizona immigration hawks’ great hope. McCain had supported amnesty in 2007; Washington D.C. perpetually twiddled its thumbs; Jane Brewer was paralyzed by fear. Only JD could take care of the issue . . .
Then SB1070 passed. The urgency of Hayworth’s campaign evaporated. The immigration issue moved from D.C. to Phoenix, from JD Hayworth to Jane Brewer. There was relief among Arizona Republicans – finally somebody had done something.
2. McCain went right on immigration
Since the spring, McCain has gone toe-to-toe with Hayworth on illegal immigration. The 2008 Republican presidential candidate has ceaselessly played up the issue of border security. The Senator, once an outspoken critic of the right’s tendency to demonize illegal immigrants, has become Mr. Border Security, supporting SB 1070, talking about Arizona’s kidnapping problems, touring the border and not worrying about what the left thinks of him.
3. Hayworth can’t escape his past
Unlike most successful Tea Party candidates, Hayworth is no D.C. outsider.
Between 1994 and 2006 Hayworth embodied the worst excesses of the GOP ruling class. For instance, in 2006, he was notoriously linked to Jack Abramoff. He had little prior record of supporting fiscal responsibility. He was, overall, business as usual – what the Tea Party claims to hate.
He even filmed an infomercial on how to get government money:
4. Big Endorsements
Finally, McCain bolstered his Republican street cred via endorsements. Though Hayworth had the benefit of several key local endorsements, like Sherriff Joe Arpaio, he has had little national support.
McCain, on the other hand, has had a lot. Senator Jon Kyl and prominent congressmen all came out for McCain. Former running mate Sarah Palin campaigned for him in Arizona, much to the chagrin of Hayworth and Arizona Tea Party leaders.
Even the National Review uncharacteristically endorsed McCain – perhaps the ultimate sign of Hayworth’s troubles.
TerryF98 // Jul 29, 2010 at 1:32 pm
Wonkette is truth wrapped in an enigma.Or a Taco
Fairy Hardcastle // Jul 29, 2010 at 1:38 pm
TerryF98 of course that is good to know. So why do most liberals push casual sex when the negative physical and psychological consequences are known and becoming better understood? I rarely if ever hear a liberal website tout the benefits of chastity and monogamy but certainly those benefits are known as well.
Fairy Hardcastle // Jul 29, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Madeline,
I signed up and complained in my first comment that my only choices were male or female in my profile and why weren’t they hip enough to include hermaphrodite or transgendered. I mean, come on!
Watusie // Jul 29, 2010 at 1:57 pm
Fairy, Madeline said it was a humour site, not a lame jackass site.
Fairy Hardcastle // Jul 29, 2010 at 2:04 pm
Watusie, thanks for clearing that up. Alot folks posting on there apparently didn’t get the memo. In light of your sage assessment, I think I will look at DailyKos.
But do I sense a subtle streak of hostility in you? You cannot possibly have a problem with either the hermaphroditic or transgendered community can you?
Carney // Jul 29, 2010 at 2:12 pm
The lawsuit that overturned SB1070 makes point 1 obsolete. And in fact, it will make McCain’s engineering of the Gang of 14 that blocked many Bush judicial nominees more of an issue.
Point 2 may be correct, but nobody who’s politically savvy believes McCain to be sincere on this. Where’s the relentless jeering that was hurled at Mitt Romney? As in 2008, the media is covering for McCain in the primary, but it will turn on him in the general.
Madeline // Jul 29, 2010 at 2:13 pm
I know you’re not serious, but trans people nearly always identify as one gender or the other.
TerryF98 // Jul 29, 2010 at 2:14 pm
Fairy said.
“TerryF98 of course that is good to know. So why do most liberals push casual sex when the negative physical and psychological consequences are known and becoming better understood? I rarely if ever hear a liberal website tout the benefits of chastity and monogamy but certainly those benefits are known as well.”
Liberals also believe that an individual has a right over his/her own body and the government has no right to interfere in physical relationships.
We are not too keen on censure either. If what you are doing is legal and does no harm to others then go ahead. It’s up to the individual to work out his or her own moral code for themselves.
Pontificating about the sexual behavior of others unless they are putting themselves up as someone to be admired then fail miserably (Vitter) is not so good.
GEValle // Jul 29, 2010 at 4:14 pm
Watusie:
People like you (if, in fact, you are a Republican) have destroyed the Party. You lead us to one electoral defeat after another, you have ZERO ideas, but you try to sound intelligent by saying things like “…the cognitive dissonance created by having supported George W. Bush…”, which is an absolutely meaningless statement. In fact, you don’t even know what it means yourself, but it sounds good at your wine and brie parties, so you keep tossing it out there.
To all those who think that Bush’s administration was “the worst in living memory”, you obviously haven’t lived very long.
And hey…”Practical Girl”…Get a friggin’ clue, please. We have a congress full of highly experienced idiots who are destroying the country, and you think that “freshmen” would be a BAD thing???
You’re the poster-child for repealing the 19th amendment; if women couldn’t vote, no Democrat would ever have a chance.
Fairy Hardcastle // Jul 29, 2010 at 4:20 pm
TerryF98, what about these facts?
The new “National HIV/AIDS Strategy for the United States” from the Obama Administration noted that “Roughly three-fourths of HIV/AIDS cases in the United States are among men, the majority of whom are gay and bisexual men.” The report also says, “According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, gay men comprise approximately 2 percent of the U.S. population, but 53 percent of new infections.”
Now I understand that there is an effort by NAMBL to get the general prohibitions on homosexual men’s blood donation lifted. Do you agree with that?
So let me get your principle right. If I showed you a study that showed homosexual practices harm people you would be against those practices?
Watusie // Jul 29, 2010 at 5:50 pm
GEValle, the problem isn’t the elections lost; it is the ones won. Total control of the entire Federal Government from 2000 to 2006 with the result being a huge new entitlement (Medicare Part D); an entire new cabinent-level department (DHS), and a hugely expensive war of choice – none of which were paid for. In addition, and huge asset bubble allowed to form, which resulted in a near melt-down of our entire financial system.
If you want to nominate another administration as worse than that, I’m all ears.
You supported George W. Bush, you can’t deal with full horror of what that actually lead to, and so now you deal with those uncomfortable realities by pretending that only if we were all MORE extreme then things would be great. That is what cognitive dissonance is. Deal with it.
Or not. Which is rather the point, isn’t it?
BTW, 55% of white women voted for W in 2004. I know you intended your last sentence to simply be a petrol bomb to annoy people; however, isn’t it rich that it actually just demonstrates how ill-informed you are?
Watusie // Jul 29, 2010 at 5:52 pm
Fairy Hardcastle, I have a problem with the moron community.
TerryF98 // Jul 29, 2010 at 6:02 pm
Fairy.
You are an obvious homophobe, a fair number of homophobes are actually closet homosexuals who rail against homosexuality out of a fear of acknowledging they are homosexual.
Not saying that is your problem but then again when have homosexuals ever harmed you?
easton // Jul 29, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Fairy Hardcastle, go to TNR for real debates, you have to pay but it is worth it. But I doubt you would win many debates, facts are pretty hardset against the Conservative agenda of tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. As to the rest of their agenda, get back to me when they have one.
anniemargret // Jul 29, 2010 at 9:00 pm
McCain no longer has to ‘worry about what the left thinks of him” because the left doesn’t think of him. He’s history. He’s shown his hand and when the chips are down, McCain veers right and drops the pretense of compromise. He’s two-faced.
I used to have a measure of respect for him, for what he endured during the war, for his ability to work on both sides of the aisle…..now, he’s gone to the Dark Side. The right can keep him. Anyone who would put Palin so close to the heartbeat of the Presidency is not someone to admire.
busboy33 // Jul 30, 2010 at 5:27 am
@Fairy H:
So is it sex itself that you want to proscribe, or just gay sex?
If your point is that a majority of HIV/AIDS cases are among gay men, fine. But are you saying that being gay, in and of itself, is risky? Is a gay blowjob more risky than a straight one?
That seams to require a serious leap in logic.
If you’re chasing abstenance . . . its a nice idea. It looks good on paper. It’ll never work, because people like sex. They have since the dawn of recorded history, and I see no reason to expect them to stop.
Nobody is “pushing” sex. Nobody is insisting on sex, are they? I think what you see as “pushing sex” is just sex ed, which IMO is a smart thing. Telling kids “wear your chastity ring and stay pure” has a pretty abyssmal failure rate, and can actually be far more risky if the people do have sex. Teaching kids about how important a condom is isn’t “pushing” sex, its pushing safety. Making sure I know to wear a helmet on a Harley isn’t pushing motercycle riding.
Oh, and Liberal sites . . .
FireDogLake is not bad, but very “Left” liberal and they will try to get you on their mailing list and then bombard the hell out of you. I found them during the Scooter Libby trial, as they were one of the only places I could find someone liveblogging from the courtroom. They are very, very slanted in their approach, but they do bring data to the table.
Also, the entire TalkingPointsMemo family of sites should be on your favorites list if you’re a political junkie, regardless of your own personal beliefs. Josh Marshal (the main guy) makes no secret about his and the site’s liberal bent, but they still offer better actual reporting on news than any of the big 4 news networks. More reporting on the news with a Liberal perspective, rather than going out and fighting the Leftie Crusade. Fantastic site.
busboy33 // Jul 30, 2010 at 5:31 am
@anniemargaret:
“I used to have a measure of respect for [McCain]”
In 2000 I’d have voted for him and the Straight Talk Express in a heartbeat. Him, Hagel, Specter . . . lots of respect.
It broke my heart what I saw in the last election. I don’t know who that talking-point spewing animatron was, but that wasn’t the John McCain I knew and admired for all these years.
Fairy Hardcastle // Jul 30, 2010 at 1:03 pm
TerryF98 you are nothing more than a homophobephobe. And for all your devotion to facts, care to back up that little statistic of “fair number” with anything remotely like a fact?