RSS Feed Menu
According to Rasmussen Reports:
In Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the U.S. Senate race in Alaska, Republican newcomer Joe Miller holds a six-point lead over Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams.
The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Miller attracting 50% of the vote, while McAdams earns support from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided.
This survey was conducted Tuesday night just hours after incumbent GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski conceded the Republican nomination during a recount of the August 24 primary. Miller, a lawyer and military veteran, benefited from support from the state’s former governor Sarah Palin and Tea Party activists.
Ninety percent (90%) of Democrats back McAdams while 79% of Republicans throw their vote behind Miller. McAdams holds a 22-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
The new numbers move this race from Solid Republican to Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power.
Click here to read more.
Oldskool // Sep 2, 2010 at 7:03 am
Once his stand on things like Social Security and Medicare become well known that poll will flip. Alaska gets huge amounts of money from the federal gubmint and you couldn’t take it away from them with a team of mules.
dante // Sep 2, 2010 at 9:50 am
It’s hard to suckle at the teat of Washington, and then campaign against handouts from Washignton…
easton // Sep 2, 2010 at 10:50 am
Oh for heaven’s sake, no more Rasmussen please. Go with Nate Silver, he is looks at all the polls and does fair analysis.
Fairy Hardcastle // Sep 2, 2010 at 11:03 am
Easton, check this out on your Silver guy: http://politifi.com/news/Nate-Silver-Democrats-Could-Lose-the-Senate-1074122.html
DirtyLibrul // Sep 2, 2010 at 2:42 pm
I don’t think this is much to crow about, in fact I would argue the opposite. This was smooth sailing for R’s before the Tealiban candidate snagged the nomination. A Rasmussen poll showing a 6 point lead is all but tied (*Rasmussen has approximately 7 point R house effect). If the election was tomorrow voter enthusiasm would still probably bring it home for Miller, but in a state with +18 R advantage and before some of his extreme views have become know, I would be freaking just a little if I was in the Miller camp.
armstp // Sep 2, 2010 at 3:43 pm
Actually, the polls are tighter than one would think for a state that is very very Republican. I think McAdams has been gaining on Miller, as before the primary when potential match-ups were polled Miller had a bigger lead over McAdams. This race is clearly now a toss-up when it should have been easily in the Republican column. The six point lead the Miller has falls with in the margin for error, so who knows who is really leading, and given that Rasmussen always leans Republican in its polling the race may be closer than one thinks or McAdams could actually be ahead.
Nate Silver has a interesting take on the Alaska race.
“In Singling Out Murkowski, Tea Party Chose Wisely”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/01/in-targeting-murkowski-tea-party-chooses-wisely/#more-515
abj // Sep 2, 2010 at 4:15 pm
The other poll (I can’t recall who polled the race – PPP?) taken after Miller’s victory had him up 8 – so the Rasmussen poll seems consistent with those results. Miller has a single-digit lead (although given how horribly off the GOP primary polling was, I think we have to take both results with something of a grain of salt).
It appears we’ve gone from solid Republican to lean Republican.
Armstp – McAdams will have a rough go of it because he has next to no money right now, and I’m not sure the DSCC wants to spend anything on the race. If the Dems had more of a heavy hitter, like former Gov. Tony Knowles, this would be a tossup. It may be that McAdams proves himself on the campaign trail – certainly he has an extraordinary opportunity – and this race really does become a tossup – but at this point, I wouldn’t bet much money on it.
armstp // Sep 2, 2010 at 6:00 pm
abj,
However, Miller is a teaparty candidate who makes a lot of stupid statements, so he may wear thin with the electorate. Like getting rid of social security.
Posting From Fake America // Sep 2, 2010 at 7:05 pm
Wow didn’t think this one would be so close, especially considering the fact that McAdams is a complete unknown. Still despite Miller’s gaffes (his behavior toward Murkowski and the national party was ridiculous) I can’t see him losing in this climate. I mean Alaska gave a convicted Ted Stevens 49% of the vote in 2008.
DifferentFrumer // Sep 2, 2010 at 8:07 pm
I used to live in Alaska and when a Democrat is within six points on a poll, it means the other candidate is a flake that scare the crap out of Republicans. This guy is going to cut his own throat over Social Security.