RSS Feed MenuBack in the late 80s and 90s, Gatorade’s ubiquitous campaign commercials starring the greatest basketball player to ever live, Michael Jordan, also featured the catchy jingle “If I could be like Mike.” My tentative advice for Republicans in the northeast and upper Midwest is to be like Mark Kirk, the successful Congressman from Illinois’ 10th Congressional District. In both 2006 and 2008 he beat back a well-funded and charismatic challenger, Dan Seals, who couldn’t even wipe out Kirk as part of the Obama tsunami last year (the nautical metaphors are appropriate since Kirk is a decorated Naval Intelligence Officer). Just to give readers a sense of how difficult it was for Kirk to hold on to his seat, the 10th Congressional District includes parts of suburban Cook County and parts of Lake County (which is the far northeastern part of Illinois). Obama beat McCain in Republican-leaning Lake County by roughly 60% to 40% (and crushed him in heavily Democratic Cook County – roughly 77% to 33%). But check out Kirk’s totals: for suburban Cook, he beat Seals 55% to 45% and actually lost to Seals in Lake County 49% to 51%, for an overall win margin of roughly 53% to 47%. I suspect all those limousine liberals in places like the tony Glencoe and Highland Park pushed Seals ahead in Lake County, but I also suspect that Kirk’s ultimate victory has the following lessons for Republicans who want to win in Democratic (especially suburban Democratic) strongholds:
- Emphasize competence and expertise – Kirk’s direct military experience and time in various government agencies played to the desire of voters in the suburbs to reward professionalism. Many of these voters might not have been strong supporters of the Iraq War, but would listen to Kirk on military issues because he spoke to them from a position of authority and knew the issues inside and out.
- No surprise to readers of this blog, Kirk basically ignored hot-button social issues (check out his campaign website – not a single social issue is listed in his “On The Issues” section). He is also pro-choice and voted to fund stem-cell research. Don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating these positions from a public policy standpoint or for the national GOP. But I would suggest that the national party needs to reward and welcome folks like Kirk, who will disagree with the majority of GOP voters on social issues but will stand with us on other issues (like Iraq, the “War on Terror”, fiscal responsibility, etc.)
- Highlight legislative successes with respect to traditional Democratic issues like the environment – when I look at Kirk’s accomplishments with respect to environmental issues, I’m afraid I see too many command and control solutions; but, Kirk is not afraid to make the environment one of his top issues and in a district that has lots of shoreline and undeveloped land, the environment clearly weighs heavily on a lot of voters minds.
So Representative Kirk doesn’t have a one size fits all solution for a new GOP majority, but he clearly should be an example to many aspiring Republicans in the old Reagan Democratic strongholds and suburban sprawl of the northeast and upper Midwest.
Ploughman // Jan 30, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Kirk may have what it takes to win in his relatively upscale suburban district, whether he could win statewide, even in a Republican primary, is another question entirely. For the last twenty years the Republican party in Illinois has been controlled by suburban collar county politicians who have believed that they could win state-wide elections in the collar counties, and did not bother to campaign or appeal to voters outside the metropolitan area. Excepting 1994, they have mostly lost. Winning state-wide elections in Illinois will require turning out not only suburban Republicans, but also more conservative Republicans outside the metro area.Judging by his public utterances, Kirk does not seem too interested in wooing coservative “Downstate” Republicans. So, despite his policy differences with other Republican leaders in Illinois, he will probably repeat their mistakes. He has also aquired something of a reputation in Illinois as a political opportunist.
jsinger008 // Jan 30, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Ploughman,
I have to disagree somewhat with your analysis of the Illinois Republican party. Let’s not forget Governor James Edgar, a popular and successful two-term Governor in the 90s who hailed from downstate. And as recently as six years ago, we had other state-wide office holders, for example Attorney General Jim Ryan, who lost to Blago in 2002 and Treasurer Judy Barr Topinka, who lost to Blago back in 2006. Admitedly, both of these latter politicians were from the collar counties, so I agree that the Illinois Republican party should promote and woo downstate politicians and voters. I still think my broader points stand and would help elect Republicans in the many “relatively upscale suburban districts” all over the upper Midwest and northeast.