Any quantitative definitions of “full recovery mode”? Sounds a bit vague to me, as it might to many folks who would like jobs again or to save their businesses.

“But what I hope for, or what anybody hopes for is irrelevant. Clapping for Tinkerbell always works in performances of Peter Pan but the real world sometimes has harsh and unhoped for outcomes.”

……..Nothing to do with Tinkerbell………just making an intelligent estimate based on empirical evidence………as your last para concedes this has moved from the arena of political rhetoric to the technical…….economics is not an exact science but given the expertise that exists today amongst govt policy makers you can be reasonably assured of outcomes……..be as pessimistic as you like……the US economy is clearly on the move and will be in full recovery mode by next summer

“ottovbs: The economic recovery isn’t going to reduce unemployment for quite some time to come. One reason being that the major effect of the stimulus package is ebbing.”

………Er…..how would that be since only about 30% of it has been spent?…… Romer didn’t say the major effect of the stimulus would ebb until mid 2010……why would that be………clearly you don’t understand that of the 800 billion only about 280 billion has so far been spent in tax cuts and transfer payments to states……..the bulk of it (some 4oo billion) is going to be spent principally on public works projects over the next 14 months………this is huge……as a benchmark compare it with the highways bill that gets passed every five years and is the largest single federal public works appropriation…….the highways bill is around 500 billion to be spent over five years ie. roughly 100 billion a year…..whereas the stimulus is going to inject about 350 billion over just over a year…….I don’t dispute for a moment that the US has structural employment problems but that’s a far cry from saying the unemployment rate is going to be hovering around 10% indefinitely…….it’s probably going to take a few years for unemployment to drop to around 6% but by the middle of next year it definitely be recovering quite strongly due to recovering consumer spending, the stimulus, and growth in export oriented industries……and guess what…… Obama will get the credit

Top White House economist Christina Romer of UC Berkeley told Congress on Thursday that employment growth could remain “painfully weak” through next year, and that the largest effect from the $787 billion stimulus enacted in February, mainly aid to states, is past. By mid-2010, she said, the stimulus will no longer contribute to growth….

Even under optimistic assumptions, it could take seven straight years of solid growth just to get employment back to where it was before the downturn, a Rutgers University analysis found.

Almost no one is expecting job growth to roar back, given its anemic increase in the last decade, when the economy generated on average 1 million jobs a year, less than half as many as during the booms of the 1980s and 1990s. Median income actually fell more than $2,000 over the decade.

Economists are puzzled as to why job growth has slowed, citing everything from higher health care costs, to higher productivity, to Chinese currency manipulation.

http://tinyurl.com/yk3678b

ottovbs:
You frequently cite structural and demographic shifts over the last 20 years in support of your theory of continuing Democratic dominance in Washington. But you should realize that some of those same structural and demographic shifts are also contributing to chronically high unemployment over the next 20 years, a la France.

But what I hope for, or what anybody hopes for is irrelevant. Clapping for Tinkerbell always works in performances of Peter Pan but the real world sometimes has harsh and unhoped for outcomes.

There are certain initial conditions in the economy, certain policies are being implemented and certain external influences exist. We’ll see how it all shakes out. I remain pessimistic.

“otto, perhaps by pouring concrete we will march behind our Leader to a glorious future. Or not. We’ll see in due course.”

……so you’re hoping for substantial economic recovery in the next year?………..It’s going to happen whatever’s in your mind beside bumper stickers

As to exports improving due to the weak dollar, it has been weaker in the past without much of an effect on exports. Oil is back over $80 per barrel perhaps because of the weakness of the dollar of which you speak. Indeed oil exporters are mumbling about dropping the dollar as their contract denominating currency. As to the DJIA in the 10k range it may or may not be another bubble. Again, we will find out.

You are a little off in reading my mind, however. Try stock picks, you might be better at that.

…….I know you long for the economy to remain in deep recession but try and get beyond the silly buzz phrases because you’re going to be disappointed buddy trust me……..the US economy once it gets on a roll is extraordinarily dynamic; it’s already in recovery mode and I wouldn’t be surprised to see well over 4% growth in next years first half; the stimulus much of which is going into socially desirable concrete (it’s huge and I know something about concrete) over the next year not nature walks as you fondly believe will provide an additional boost to already recovering consumer spending; and the weak dollar is going boost exports to a world that is also in full recovery mode……….I’m not making all this up……why the f*** do you think oil is back at $80 and the Dow at around 10………if the Republicans are relying on the economy being in the tank next summer let alone the summer of 2011 to revive their fortunes they’re out to lunch believe me…….but if it keeps you warm at night……You probably think he’s the anti christ but you should read old Bartlett’s new book, he’s that rare thing today an intellectually honest conservative economist.

Home sales were up, we’ll see if they stay up without the $8,000 subsidy.

Profitability is up for those outfits still in business, let’s see how business formation and capital investment rates progress.

65% of the stimulus has yet to kick in. Porkbarrel I.O.U money from the stimulus will start to gush in time for the 2010 elections, I’m waiting to see what the consequent rise in deficits or taxes will do to future economic growth. (I know, I know Bush ad infinitum et nauseam, but Obama is in charge now and deficits are soaring on his watch.)

But, to someone unemployed without prospects for a new job, the fact that somebody else gets a $8,000 check to subsidize buying a house or that the folks from the local union hall are getting good wages from stimulated dirt moving isn’t much comfort. You can’t make payments on your under water home mortgage with leading indicators.

So, for Obama’s future electability, unemployment had better not lag too much.

“The future of the GOP will become clearer when we get a look at the economy in 2011 – 2012. Maybe even in 2010. If things keep going as they are,”

……..You seem unaware that with the exception of unemployment, the universally acknowledged lagging indicator, just about every economic barometer from home sales to corporate profitability is pointing north, that the Fed chairman has declared the recession likely over, that just about all economists are anticipating growth around 2.5-3% in the second half of this year, and 65% of the stimulus has yet to kick in……..time will of course tell but if economic improvement is the criteria then the preponderance of evidence suggests time is very much on Obama’s side……not that empirical evidence plays a overly large part in making your value judgements I know.