Looking at last week’s election results, I noticed that black turnout in Virginia was 20% down since 2008 and youth turnout was 50% down. While this fact does not account for McDonnell’s win, it does account for some portion of his huge margin of victory. Most importantly, it means that conservative declarations that the Obama era is over are premature: the voters have not turned away from Obama (yet) – rather a lot of his voters simply did not show up. If the Republican luck continues, they also won’t show up at the midterm election next year, since once again Obama will not be on the ballot. But in 2012 he will! So Republicans who capture dozens of seats from Democrats next year (as we all hope) will have to defend them after just one term in a much less favorable environment, which will furthermore be compounded by redistricting in 2011 (and in most states that process will not be particularly Republican-friendly). We need to think very carefully about the wisdom of nominating the most conservative candidate available in each and every district (at least if we want a coherent conservative strategy for a longer period than just one congressional term). Many conservatives now say that Doug Hoffman would have won if he had been the official Republican candidate and suggest that he runs again next year. But “Could Hoffman have won in 2009?” is the wrong question. The right question is “Could Hoffman have won in 2008 (when Obama carried NY-23 by a healthy margin)?” By all means, we should nominate conservatives in truly safe Republican districts (and there are plenty of those) and perhaps in cases when the conservative in question just happens to be very popular in the district for whatever reason. But in swing districts it would be prudent to remember the “center” part of the “center-right coalition”. Also, incumbents running for reelection should be virtually untouchable – few offenses short of actually voting for Pelosi for Speaker can justify a primary challenge. But I’m very afraid that the Club for Growth and its allies have other ideas.
In fact, I am very concerned about a relative likely doomsday scenario for conservatism which goes along the following lines. Encouraged by victories in VA and NJ and a surprisingly strong performance by a third-party conservative challenger in NY-23, conservatives rise up to assert control of the GOP and nominate dozens upon dozens of conservative candidates not only for seats held by Democrats but also for many Republican seats previously held by more moderate politicians (who are either defeated in the primaries or are retiring – in some cases because of increasing hostility toward them on the conservatives’ part). The economy recovers slowly, the rate unemployment is still very high in late 2010,healthcare and energy legislation are full of compromises that leave nobody happy, Guantanamo is still open, “don’t ask, don’t tell” is still in force, nobody is under investigation for waterboarding, the troops are still in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc. etc. etc. The Democratic base’s turnout is very low. Independents, inasmuch as they bother to show up at all, do so mostly to register their unhappiness with the economy. The Republican base is energized and turns out in force. Despite a number of disappointing narrow losses by conservative candidates and very mixed results in the Senate, the GOP picks dozens of seats in the House (a lot of them by a razor margin). While the Democrats are actually still in charge of everything, triumphant conservatives convince each other that the era of Obama (and Pelosi) is truly over and that unabashed uncompromising conservatism is just the ticket to building a permanent majority. The next presidential campaign starts the day after the midterm election and a lot of wheeling and dealing, political alignment, talent hiring by campaigns etc. happen in early 2011, while it is still very difficult to judge the future mood of the country in late 2012. As 2011 progresses, the economy gradually picks up (in part because more and more stimulus money is finally being spent), the unemployment rate starts declining, but the leading GOP candidates are oblivious as they are too absorbed in debating who’s the most conservative of all (their TV debates often resemble Monty Python’s ” Four Yorkshiremen“). In the meantime, quite a few Republican veterans in Congress realize where it is all headed and decide to quit (either to retire or to pursue other opportunities) rather than spend years in a marginalized minority or even suffer an ignominious defeat. More conservative (on average) candidates are nominated as prospective replacements. In January 2012, the party quickly picks a presidential candidate – a true conservative, of course. A matching running mate is picked a bit later. Conservatives have great hopes for their dream ticket (Rush Limbaugh – Ann Coulter 2012 or perhaps their proxies among the professional politicians).
Meanwhile, the economy starts roaring (like it did just in time for Reagan in ’84) and hundreds of thousands of new jobs are created every month. A lot of people feel good about “insuring the uninsured”, “saving the planet” and other new programs, while the negative effects of higher taxes, huge new debt, Obamacare, cap-and-trade and other statist policies do not yet start to get felt (in fact most of the new policies are not even fully implemented yet). All that alone would virtually guarantee Obama’s reelection. But a lot of people also don’t want the first black president to be considered a failure by history and want him reelected for this reason alone, and Obama yet again generates a lot of enthusiasm among many infrequent voters. All that would almost guarantee a landslide (absent a very skillful campaign by a carefully selected opposition ticket). But the abrasive and unpopular Republican ticket creates an opening for a mega landslide, comparable to those of Reagan and LBJ. Obama uses his mandate and supermajorities in Congress not only to pass new sweeping legislation, but also to revisit insufficiently liberal legislation from his first term (e.g. to replace “public option” with “public mandate”). The GOP establishment overreacts both in recriminations against conservatives and in swinging the party much further to the left than is really necessary. Conservatives pat themselves on the back for standing up for their eternal immutable principles. Then, true to form, they quietly redefine those principles in such a way that just about anybody to the right of the previous Democratic president (JFK back in the 60’s, Bill Clinton now) qualifies as a conservative.
Do we really have to go through all this?
13 responses so far
1 teabag // Nov 14, 2009 at 12:08 pm
I hope so!
2 rbottoms // Nov 14, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Sure, ya betcha.
Moose & Squirrely/2012
3 mpolito // Nov 14, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Remember that after the Reagan landslide the Dems took back the Senate in 86. Obama can run one more time, and jack up the youth and black vote one more time. That’s it. We’ll have to go through that, but so what?
4 Arch // Nov 14, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Kudos for the Four Yorkshiremen refererence. Made my day.
5 FuzzyLogic // Nov 14, 2009 at 10:08 pm
I don’t think it will be that bad in 2012 regardless for a few reasons.
1) Obama ran as an amorphous candidate, long on style, short on substance. In 2012, he has to run on his record. Hopenchange and post-partisan unity was a one-time deal.
2) The coalition that elected him – blacks, youth, suburbanites – won’t be there. The suburbanites are gone thanks to the health care debacle and record deficits. The black vote will still be there, but my guess is that the turnout to elect the first black president was much larger than the turnout to re-elect him will be. As for the youth, will they be as excited about the 51 year old politician as they were about the hip, gauzy 47 year old candidate? Plus, the youth vote is going to be more offset by some seriously PO’d seniors.
3) Bear in mind that even in the most perfect circumstances ever for a Democrat (a poor McCain campaign, unpopular incumbent, economic collapse, in-the-tank media, historic candidacy, etc), Obama still only garnered 53% of the vote. Want to bet that more than 3 out of 100 people have either changed their minds about this guy or will stay home next time?
6 Daniel99 // Nov 15, 2009 at 1:02 am
You do not seem to recall that many libertarians and conservatives did not support McCain and some even voted for Obama. The McCain-Feinberg law was anathema to many, and, indeed, its major effect was to increase the the influence on elections of rich leftists like Soros and cheaters like ACORN.
Also remember that the Democratic Party made a strong effort to recruit presentable candidates who ran almost as conservatives, the so called Blue Dogs and it was mostly these who wrested seats previously held by Republicans. They will soon have to explain why they voted for the unpopular leftist bills served up by Pelosi and Reed, which mainly rewarded Democrat supporters like tort lawyers and union leaders.
The guy that beat Hoffman (assuming he did so) ran far to the right of the Republican candidate, was a vet, an opponent of gun control, a family man etc.
And almost all prominent entertainers (and the press as well but it is rapidly becoming irrelevant) pushed for Obama; who boasted of his bipartisan attitudes and his hope to cleanse the political stable, which instead he has wallowed in.
His foreign policy is promoting chaos in the world, while his domestic policies seem aimed at minimizing employment particularly among the young and among blacks. That these groups will love him in 2012 is far from clear unless he changes his ways very soon. Those that remain ignorant and get their politics from entertainers might do so, but lots of them, seeing the consequences of their folly in 2008 may just lose interest.
Republicans who run as mushy pseudo-democrats will, in my opinion turn off more voters than those who stand for conservative values like those of Reagan. Reagan won reelection in a landslide. The first Bush failed do so in part because he was too willing to go along with the Democrats.
No doubt winning in 2012 and even 2010 will not be easy, but making use of the energy possessed by the tea party movement can be the winning factor.
7 james ramsdell // Nov 15, 2009 at 6:36 am
I think you’re being too optimistic about the chances of the economy ” roaring” back so soon. Unless enough conservatives are put into Congress in ‘10 to repeal the stimulus bill, the only jobs that are going to be created by it are public sector jobs. The private sector will be suffering for years because of the destructive policies of the Obama/Pelosi regime.
8 ottovbvs // Nov 15, 2009 at 11:20 am
………There’s a lot of sense in this but I think the writer is being over optimistic about Republican chances next year…….Sure they are probably going to pick up some house seats but the Obama admin has already signalled it’s going to make a big effort next year and will probably a introduce an immigration reform bill that will be deeply schismatic in Republican circles, and there’s also the benefits of incumbency which are not a mirage……At best the Republicans pick up a few house seats which will paradoxically have the effect of strengthening the Democratic caucus because the losses are going to be blue dogs but could lose several senate seats since no less than 9 Republican senators are retiring………and contrary to this comment
“7 james ramsdell // Nov 15, 2009 at 6:36 am
I think you’re being too optimistic about the chances of the economy ” roaring” back so soon. ”
…….Once economic recovery gathers steam it can be surprisingly rapid…..at least that has been my experience in the last five economic downturns……..it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see 5% growth in next years first half and unemployment falling sharply by the late summer of 2010……Essentially Republican hopes for revival all center on a failure of the US economy to recover so they are essentially betting against this country’s economic resilience………suppose this turns out to be a wrong bet……what’s plan B?
9 kogiks // Nov 16, 2009 at 8:14 am
As a neutral observer from the Philippines, I hope that Americans don’t lose their perspective and keep faith with their present Democratic government. After eight years of really bad governance by the previous Republican leadership, the challenges that Americans are facing now are complex and enormous. Progress is indeed slow in unraveling the mess that the Bush-Cheney government has left behind but the overall trajectory is consistent and encouraging. More than ever Americans must come together in forthcoming state and city elections to ensure that the overall Democratic agenda is concluded. America has lost prestige around the world because of the missteps and arrogance of the Bush-Cheney government. This prestige is slowly being regained by the the election and progress of Barack Obama. He just needs to push a little harder with the support of all right thinking Americans which I believe are considerably more numerous than noisy tea party organizers.
10 jwbeeno // Nov 16, 2009 at 8:39 am
Wow, that actually makes pretty good sense to me dude.
RT
http://www.online-privacy.at.tc
11 sinz54 // Nov 16, 2009 at 10:28 am
Mr. Pavelyev is worried that we might end up with a more conservative Congress in 2012, but then Obama might win re-election in 2016.
Well, WHAT’S WRONG WITH THAT???
In 1996, Clinton won re-election–but Congress remained in control of the Republicans. Was divided government so bad? We got welfare reform passed. We got a balanced Federal budget for the first time in decades. The economy boomed.
If we can drive Congress sharply to the right, let Obama have his Presidency for a second term! If we don’t overreach like Gingrich did, a more conservative Congress will kill any more of Obama’s liberal schemes anyway–and the nation will do well.
I would take divided government over one party controlling everything. It seems that when one party controls everything, hubris and arrogance sets in and they go way beyond what the voters could tolerate.
12 GOP Wins in 2010 Could Lead to Big Losses in 2012 - Politics and Other Controversies - Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, Conservatives, Liberals, Third Parties, Left-Wing, Right-Wing, Congress, President - City-Data Forum // Nov 19, 2009 at 8:38 am
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13 handworn // Dec 11, 2009 at 9:38 pm
Try hitting that “Return” button more often. This would have been much easier to read with paragraphs not quite so long.
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