RSS Feed MenuThough the media spotlight has faded away, Republicans in New York’s 23rd congressional district continue to wage civil war over the nomination, a war that threatens to continue all the way to Election Day.
In the wake of the 2009 special election and the ejection of Dede Scozzafava, the then-Republican nominee, Republicans have continued the fight – this time on who will become the 2010 general election nominee.
On either side of the ring are Doug Hoffman, the 2009 candidate on the Conservative Party ticket, and businessman Matt Doheny.
Hoffman’s campaign is convinced that the publicity from the 2009 special election has given their candidate the support he needs to win the nomination this time around. “Doug is a brand up there. I know that may sound a little bit trite, but the special election got him so much press, so much publicity, everybody knows who he is,” said Rob Ryan, a communications advisor to Doug Hoffman.
Ryan points to an internal poll that had Hoffman up by over thirty points in July as evidence of his candidate’s frontrunner status.
Doheny’s campaign team suggests that the summer months have allowed them to become competitive. “Matt is working harder – he’s got the depth of knowledge on local issues and international issues… Mr. Hoffman feels entitled to the nomination,” said Alison Powers, a spokesperson for Doheny.
“That is so ridiculous. That is why they call this the silly season,” said Hoffman’s aide in response to the charge. “Doug Hoffman understands that he has to work hard for this election. That’s why he’s been travelling all over the district and meeting all sorts of people.”
There is no reliable, independent polling in the district. But if money talks, it would say that Doheny holds the lead. According to FEC filings, Doheny has a substantial cash on hand advantage, with more than three times the amount of money that Hoffman has. At the beginning of July, Doheny had $691,205 on hand, while Hoffman had $213,245.
Further, Hoffman faces the same problems as he did in the infamous 2009 special election – he has failed to convince local Republican committees that he deserves their nomination.
Nine out of the eleven county GOP committees in the district have endorsed Doheny, and the other two have declined to make an endorsement altogether. However, the two chairmen of these two committees have both personally endorsed Doheny. “They saw Matt’s hustle, and gravitated to Matt [Doheny]. I think it’s just as simple as that,” said the Doheny campaign’s Alison Powers.
“Look, these guys all last year endorsed Dede Scozzafava… they endorsed Doheny because they can’t accept the fact that Doug beat her… and they know that Doug is not beholden to them,” said Rob Ryan, Hoffman’s spokesman.
This nomination fight, to be partially settled on September 14th, is based on style, not substance. Both Republicans appear to agree on almost all policy issues. The Upstate New York Tea Party has endorsed Hoffman, but admits Doheny is basically just as conservative. So the battle has centered on whether Doheny, who has spent time on Wall Street, is ‘Main Street’ enough for the district; or whether Doug Hoffman, who only moved into the district this year, is knowledgeable enough on local issues.
Civil wars don’t end easily, and this one promises to continue the trend. If Doheny wins on primary night, Hoffman has vowed to keep campaigning – he’s been guaranteed the Conservative Party line on the ballot – and the political fight will continue on to Election Day.
This continuing fight on the right handed the district to the Democrats for the first time in a hundred years – the Hoffman-Doheny showdown threatens to hand the district over to Congressman Bill Owens for a second time in a row.
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armstp // Sep 3, 2010 at 3:35 pm
I am not sure NY23 is really available for the handing to the Democrats by the Republicans, as this has been polling in favor for the Democrats since the special election. NY23 is leaning Democrat, no matter who the Republican candidate is.
See:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house/new-york/23
MSheridan // Sep 3, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Mr. Mak, regarding this piece, you said that This nomination fight, to be partially settled on September 14th, is based on style, not substance. Both Republicans appear to agree on almost all policy issues.As I live in California, I hadn’t previously been following this race , so Doheny is unknown to me, but I well remember reading about Hoffman during the last election. He was unelectable. In part, that was due to personal idiosyncrasies, but in part it was because he was so extreme he repelled even the loyal Republicans of District 23. If he and Doheny are truly ideological twins, isn’t it possible that it isn’t the infighting that might prevent the Republican Party from winning this seat? Instead, isn’t it possible it might be that the local party structures have been captured by the most radical elements of the party?
Living in California, I’m all too aware of the problem, as our politicians (both Democrats and Republicans) truly represent the views of only a tiny minority of the state’s electorate and are so polarized that little constructive ever gets done. Regardless, blaming the potential of a lost seat in NY-23 on infighting seems misguided. Unlike the last election, where Hoffman supporters eschewed Scozzafava for being too liberal, whichever Republican candidate prevails in this election should be able to count on support from the partisans of the defeated candidate. Your column strikes me as preemptive justification for a loss that may not happen, but that if it does will happen for very different reasons.
Posting From Fake America // Sep 3, 2010 at 4:42 pm
Sheridan,
The feud has more to do with personal differences than ideological division. If Hoffman loses the Republican primary, he will continue to run on the Conservative party line. His presence on the ballot will at the very least ensure that a small percentage of the electorate will vote for him (some NY’ers vote a straight conservative party line). If Hoffman wins the Republican primary, Doheny and the party bosses will not provide him with the cash and ground-game logistics that he needs to topple Owens. The local party hates Hoffman because they view him as an outsider who they cannot influence or control. Hoffman has delusions of grandeur, so he thinks that he can win the general even if he doesn’t win the Republican nomination.
PracticalGirl // Sep 3, 2010 at 4:47 pm
Tim:
How’s the money situation shaping up for Hoffman? If I recall, he raked in some out of state Tea Party contributions to defeat Scozzafava. Do you see these sorts of contributions being held back in light of recent information that many in the Tea Party movement (led by Palin) are upset about Scott Brown’s voting record thus far and feel a bit betrayed?
PracticalGirl // Sep 3, 2010 at 4:54 pm
Sheridan asks a good question: Is Hoffman too conservative on the issues to truly attract the Republican passion necessary to get the vote out in an off-year election? How hard will the GOPers in the district fight for a guy who represents positions they consider too extreme?
MSheridan // Sep 3, 2010 at 5:06 pm
Thanks, Posting From Fake America, that does clear things up somewhat. However, if true it only points to deeper Republican weakness in NY-23 than I had previously supposed or than Mr. Mak’s article had indicated. If I understand you aright, the Conservative Party in that district is attempting to co-opt the GOP to push its agenda, rather than the reverse, and the local GOP power structure would rather see Democrats win than be so co-opted, not on policy grounds (which might be admirable) but from more ignoble motivations.
abj // Sep 3, 2010 at 5:17 pm
So, it sounds as if Doheny wins, the GOP will do just fine. Doheny is a conservative and therefore it’s unlike he’ll get “Scozzafava-ed.” It was her perceived liberalism that pushed enough conservatives to vote for Hoffman during that special election, thereby splitting the vote. On the other hand, if Hoffman wins, we’d see the same split that gave the seat to Owens last year. Something to keep an eye on, I guess.
Tim Mak // Sep 3, 2010 at 5:48 pm
Thanks for the questions.
MSheridan: I think Hoffman would have won the special election if Scozzafava had not been on the ballot – they split the vote and Owens came up the middle. This wasn’t/isn’t really a typical swing district – it hadn’t been in Democratic hands for a century.
Hoffman wasn’t able to secure the endorsement of local GOP committees last time – this is why he didn’t get the nomination in the special election. This time around, he faces the same opposition from local committees, only there is a wider primary voting base.
PracticalGirl: Off the top of my head, I know that Doheny is leading both Democrat Rep. Bill Owens and Hoffman in cash on hand. The amount raised is perhaps less important than the amount they have left to spend, no?
Tea Party groups are unlikely to mobilize for Hoffman – they’ve got races all around the country to worry about. This race in upstate New York is not going to draw too much attention from donors.
easton // Sep 3, 2010 at 6:13 pm
Posting From Fake America, thanks, but I don’t quite understand. Isn’t there a Primary where rank and file Republicans choose the candidate? It seems the greatest danger is if Doheny wins and Hoffman runs hard on the Conservative party line, taking away a few percentage points.
I don’t know about Doheny, but Hoffman is kind of a creepy guy. He looks like an undertaker.
busboy33 // Sep 3, 2010 at 10:28 pm
@Tim Mak:
“This wasn’t/isn’t really a typical swing district – it hadn’t been in Democratic hands for a century.”
What about Peter Peyser, Democrat, 1979-83?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_23rd_congressional_district
I’m certainly not 100% up on the political backstory for the district, and it does seem to get redistricted more often than I get haircuts, but I was under the impression that the “been Red for a century” idea wasn’t accurate. I was told all this when Owen was elected and I said the same thing, and I was never able to rebut it, so if its actually still accurate I’d live to know.
jakester // Sep 3, 2010 at 11:44 pm
Easton
Hoffman is a Palindrone but he does have some support there. There are a lot of his big banner signs all through there but the people in that district are not some dumb rednecks so they really are not super hot on all that schtick compared to other rural communities. There are lots of older New England and country hippie types, as well as rich outsiders who use their vacation homes as permanent residences, to whom that kind of Palinbotic mentality is repulsive
armstp // Sep 6, 2010 at 7:50 pm
PraticalGirl,
On funding look at the link I post above. It give you everything about this race. The District is currently leaning democratic and the Democrat may have more cash on hand.
abj // Sep 7, 2010 at 9:45 am
busboy33 -
I vaguely remember reading articles about this last year, and if I recall correctly, analysts are referring to the specific geographic area, not the district number. The area that currently constitutes NY-23 wasn’t always NY-23, but always was represented by a Republican.
I can’t find an article after doing a 30-second google search, but I think that it.
busboy33 // Sep 7, 2010 at 7:40 pm
@abj:
That may well be the case — as I said, it seems to get re-drawn every election. In fact, I think that’s the only way the “Red for a Century” meme makes any sense . . . but dammit, we shouldn’t have to labor to make a simple and straightforward statement jibe with reality. It irks me.
Does seem to be a far more nebulous statistic that way, though. Are they saying that this particular geographic area always votes GOP, or that this geographic area has always been part of a district that ends up going GOP regardless of the votes for this specific geographic area?
I mean if the “geographic area” is 5 blocks, and they’re part of an overwhelmingly Blue district . . . then yippee for them being Red. Those 5 blocks don’t seem to have any impact on who wields power then. On the other hand, if the “geographic area” mixes up its votes (sometimes Dem, sometimes Repub), but the district they get attached to ends up always going Red then the entire concept (a century’s bastion of GOP reliance) is (IMO) deceitful.
I’m mad at whomever came up with this meme, but I can’t tell which team started throwing it around first. Whomever it was . . . you are a bad person or people!
. . . grumble grumble . . . .