RSS Feed MenuIn May, the Gallup poll recorded a big swing in the percentage of Americans describing themselves as “prolife.” Now in July, Gallup finds that 39% of Americans describe themselves as having become more conservative in recent years, as compared to only 18% who say they have become more liberal.
Good news for conservatives? Almost every conservative commentator says so. But not so fast.
Look closer at the polls, and you do not see that the country as a whole is moving right in any meaningful sense. On taxes for example Americans are less likely to describe themselves as overtaxed in 2009 than in 2004. More Americans express discontent with the healthcare status quo than five years ago. The country continues to evolve toward greater tolerance of homosexuality, and it continues to strongly favor stem-cell research.
So what has changed? What has changed is that the 40% of Americans who regard themselves as conservative are shifting to more extreme forms of conservatism.
Look at the big abortion poll. A year ago, 40% said that abortion should be illegal in most circumstances, while only 17% said that it should be illegal in all circumstances. In May 2009, 37% said abortion should be mostly illegal, while 23% said it should be entirely illegal. The prolife cause as a whole gained only 3 points, ie, within the margin of error.
But the most extreme form of the prolife cause gained 6 points.
Likewise, ideologically, the biggest driver of the “more conservative” number has been the shift amongst conservatives themselves. 58% of conservatives now say they have become “more conservative” in recent years.
Meanwhile 48% of moderates and 43% of liberals say their views have not changed much.
We are not, in other words, viewing a big national shift from the left to the right. Rather we are viewing a shift among those who already described themselves as conservatives toward an acceptance of more extreme forms of conservatism.
Oddly, this self-description does not seem to line up with big changes in actual positions on the issues. On the economy in particular Americans seem open to a new era of government activism on healthcare. (Discontent with the healthcare status quo has risen 7 points over the past year.) Fewer describe the tax burden as excessive. On the other hand, Americans do seem to have returned to traditionally hawkish views on defense and national security.
What the Gallup poll seems to have discerned is not a change of substance, but a change in style. Over barely six months of the Obama presidency, the right has worked itself into a furious state of mind, not so much over any one issue in particular, but over the very existence of the Obama administration. Then we confuse our own mood of extremism with a more general swing to conservatism by moderates and liberals. That’s a big misjudgment – and a misjudgment that may lead to some very serious strategic mistakes in the months ahead.
ottovbvs // Jul 8, 2009 at 5:03 pm
As an interesting commentary on the tendency of conservatives to hunker down and become more conservative than ever I attach a link to a piece in this week’s National Review that used to be regarded as the holy of holies when it came to conservative thinking and idea generation. So this is not some freak on one of the more crazy blogs like Red Republic it’s from a supposedly serious conservative at the most serious of venues. Quite extraordinary really.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NDE3MmE5MDVmMGM1YjQ2NmVhMjJkN2I2ZTcxMzhlNjU=&w=MA==
brutus1791 // Jul 9, 2009 at 4:20 pm
US: The sun will come up… tomorrow!
FRUM: No it won’t, technically we are rotating into the sun so it’s not coming ‘up’ at all.
His logic:
The sun will rise again.
The sun does not “rise” because we spin on an axis.
Therefor: There will be no sun.
bryandhair // Jul 9, 2009 at 6:49 pm
I feel that the main problem the Republican party is facing at this time is a general identity crisis. Our anger and frustration has clouded our way of thinking much like the way the extreme left felt the final six years of the Bush presidency. The two parties, when not in control, act like small children that are told that they can go into the candy store but they can’t have anything. Although not in control right now, the GOP needs to start acting in a manner that shows that they are ready to govern when given the opportunity.
President Obama and the democrats were elected on the platform of change. So far, we have gotten exactly what they said..change. I am reminded of a statement that Rudy Giuliana made following the Presidential debate between then Sen. Obama and Sen. Mccain..”Of course we all want change, but what kind of change are we going to get..good change or bad change.” At this time, we are witnessing the return of big goverment with talks of another stimulus, national health care coupled with out of control spending from a congress that seems to be more concerned with re-election rather than being fiscally responsible.
The members of Congress that we see on TV and hear on the radio from the GOP are not doing us any favors by speaking nothing other than talking points that we can get off of any right-wing website. What the public needs to hear from the right is not only a sense of frustration, but a sense of direction. Solutions to problems should be offered as well as new legislation that could put a freeze on unnecessary spending (which essentially is over 90% of what this congress has spent) until we get ourselves in a spot where we are not turning the government into the same mess as the mortgage crisis.
Some politicians are saying that the reason we are in this mess is because people lived above their means for too long. I feel that this congress is spending in the same manner. The only diference is, more than a house can be lost if this wreckless behavior continues.
If conservatives want to be back at the head of the table, we must start now while we are sitting at the kids table.
sinz54 // Jul 10, 2009 at 9:55 am
The poll is irrelevant, and I wish David Frum had not even mentioned it.
The policy and structural problems of the GOP need to be dealt with in any case.
The groundwork for the Dems’ comeback started in 1985, just after Reagan had won a landslide re-election victory. That was when the Democratic Leadership Council was formed, to take the Dems to the right, abandoning the Mondale-Wellstone type of rhetoric.
The GOP is wasting precious time by imagining that all they have to do is recycle Reagan speeches and everything will be fine.
You Put Your Right Foot In, You Put Your Right Foot Out, You Put Your Right Foot In… « Around The Sphere // Jul 11, 2009 at 4:35 pm
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