Bob McDonnell’s win in the Virginia governor’s race is the model the GOP should follow if it wants to recapture the political stage and ignite the party in 2010 and 2012.
McDonnell ran a smart campaign which appealed to all types of voters and had that big tent feel. He focused on the issues facing residents: taxes, jobs and transportation. Virginians didn’t want to hear about polarizing social issues like abortion and gay marriage, so McDonnell didn’t inject them into his campaign. It paid off handsomely. McDonnell took most of Northern Virginia, winning votes in Prince William and Loudon counties after five years of Democratic rule. And for the first time since 1997, Fairfax county supported a Republican candidate for governor.
McDonnell was deft in his minority outreach, which included blacks, Asians and Hispanics. McDonnell said no thanks to Sarah Palin’s offer to endorse him and got Shelia Johnson, long-time black Democrat donor and billionaire to support him and even appear in ads endorsing him. Early in the year, Johnson had an uncomfortable meeting with Deeds in her home, asking him to strongly come out against unions, he wasn’t interested in her perspective. So, she turned to McDonnell.
He didn’t bash or disparage the president as a person or declare he was the purest Republican of them all or flex his “good conservative credentials.” McDonnell ran his campaign like a gentleman, stuck to the issues and it paid off. As a result, 66% of independent voters followed him.
McDonnell realized radical campaigns on the left or the right aren’t the formula for future political success. Several polls reveal Americans growing ennui with both parties and a rise in independent voters. A Washington Post/ABC News survey released in October found that 42% of Americans identify as independents compared with 33% as Democrats and 20% as Republicans.
An absolutely wrong campaign model for the party to follow would be the Doug Hoffman/New York way. Hoffman showed “no grasp of issues” according to one of the local papers but unlike Scozzafava passed the litmus test on being a conservative because he is pro-life and against gay marriage. Result: one more Democrat under Nancy Pelosi’s leadership.
If the GOP wants to win again, it should follow the McDonnell example, not Hoffman’s.
10 responses so far
1 joemarier // Nov 5, 2009 at 5:24 pm
He said no thanks to Sarah Palin campaigning for him, not endorsing him, actually…
2 balconesfault // Nov 5, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Well, there is a difference between a Congressional candidate – who necessarily as his will be focussing more on those big national issues, and not on getting the potholes filled – and a Governor, who must actually govern.
3 mpolito // Nov 5, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Scozzafava was a social liberal certainly. But was that what sank her? She was also in favor of the stimulus, which all GOP House members opposed, and in favor of card check. Is Ms. Wright comfortable with a GOP in favor of these things? McDonnell didn’t mention social issues because they were not on voter’s mind, but he didn’t lurch leftward on social issues.
4 joemarier // Nov 5, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Balconesfault, that’s a bit pat. A congressional candidate has to know local issues whenever federal funding comes into play. Which it does quite often!
5 Arch // Nov 5, 2009 at 8:46 pm
Plus McDonnell’s opponent was all too willing to tout McDonnell’s social conservative credentials, so McDonell got it both ways. He got to not focus on it, and still word spread.
6 joemarier // Nov 5, 2009 at 10:05 pm
That’s riiight… by volunteering that he wrote that thesis, he was able to allow enough time to get it vetted. Also, it showed he had nothing to hide. And the “twenty year old” thing was important because people know that you talked social issues differently in 1989 than you do in 2009.
7 midcon // Nov 6, 2009 at 4:10 am
Well come on Crystal, let’s tell it like it is – McDonnell also won becasause Deeds was a weak candidate AND because “ahem” African American voters were not all that interested in this election because um…er….
Still your key point is spot on. McDonnell spent his time talking about what people really care about in Virginia (especially Northern Virginia) economy, jobs, transportation. Now we will see if spends his time doing something about the same. Unfortunately because governors in Virginia are limited to single terms, it means he needs to move fast, which is difficult. It also means there is punishment for failure per se.
Hoffman on the other hand, ran from the right when the voters in NY-23 were primarily in the center.
8 sinz54 // Nov 6, 2009 at 9:09 am
midcon:
Hoffman also displayed a total lack of understanding of the issues local to NY-23. He campaigned as one of these national crusaders for conservatism generally. That’s not what the folks in NY-23 wanted to hear.
9 DFL // Nov 6, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Although Bob McDonnell ran a disciplined campaign, let us not forget that 1) Virginia has elected the out party to the governor’s seat ever since 1977; 2) ex-governor Douglas Wilder, the first elected black governor in American history, enjoys the limelight in which he basks when he cuts against the Democratic grain in Virginia; 3) off-year elections almost always favor a better turnout of the out party’s voters and 4) the drag Obama’s dubious economic program has weighed down Democrats nationwide.
Yes, in stressful economic times, most voters don’t want a bunch of yapping about social issues and McDonnell was wise to stress local Virginia issues. But let us not think McDonnell offers political smokestack lightning. A competent Republican should have won the Virginia governor’s race this year and McDonnell proved competent. Let us see how popular he is after he gets to tackle the insolvable traffic crisis of northern Virginia.
10 ottovbvs // Nov 6, 2009 at 4:46 pm
DeMint today(on Cornyn):
“He’s trying to find candidates who can win. I’m trying to find people who can help me change the Senate,” said Jim DeMint of South Carolina, a leader of the conservative bloc. “To think we can grow the party by picking people who are more liberal and don’t share our core values doesn’t make any sense.”
……….this is reality……this is what is going to play out over the next few years
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