RSS Feed MenuI was fascinated by an exchange on immigration on NRO between Richard Nadler and John Derbyshire.
(See also this ps by Mark Krikorian.)
Let me quote a bit from Richard Nadler’s post:
It [the effective enforcement of immigration laws] is not going to happen. The second is, if it did happen, the result would not be more jobs for American workers, but the catastrophic collapse of our rural export industries, and a substantial contraction of many branches of industry that depend on seasonal peak hiring to maintain their year-round staff.
I’m struck at how very suddenly out of date this argument sounds, like a memento from a different time, a little bit of yesterday.
The argument that illegal aliens would never return home seemed very facially plausible 24 months ago. But when many hundreds of thousands are returning home, you’d think the plausible prediction would yield to the actual fact. See for example here, here, here, here, here, here, or here among many examples I could have chosen. (H/t Mickey Kaus for the first two.)
Likewise, the claim that Americans won’t do seasonal, rural, and agricultural work seems much less true in April 2009 that it seemed two years ago. See here, here and the second half of here.
Nor are conditions likely soon to return to those prevailing in 2007. The current economic downturn is likely to leave behind a transformed US labor market.
It seems doubtful, for example, that construction jobs will return in the numbers demanded in the 2002-2007 housing boom.
The collapse in the value of Americans’ portfolio wealth may imply that future demand for luxury services like landscaping and restaurant meals will be diminished.
If the recovery is as weak as experts predict, jobs like meatpacking, janitorial and custodial services may be more attractive to less-skilled Americans.
In short, it’s not at all clear that the labor market of the future will have require anything like the stock and flow of very low-skilled labor that the US imported in the 1990s and 2000s.
This possibility is something that needs to be considered very seriously as Americans consider immigration policies going forward.
And those of us who consider ourselves conservative reformers have some extra rethinking to do – but more about that shortly.
barker13 // Apr 2, 2009 at 10:24 am
“The argument that illegal aliens would never return home seemed very facially plausible 24 months ago.”Speak for yourself, David! (*GRIN*) Hey… head “upstairs” and join us on Reinhoudt’s thread!(*WINK*)BILL
bloodstar // Apr 2, 2009 at 10:27 am
So effectively the financial collapse and recession has done what a booming economy couldn’t: Reduce illegal immigrants and force Americans to work for pennies in seasonal and/or unskilled jobs. Mmm I’m not sure this is really a such a blessing.
ModerateGal // Apr 2, 2009 at 12:13 pm
I wonder what kind of healthcare options that the Americans doing these types of jobs will have.
joemarier // Apr 2, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Good question. The way we’re going, it’ll probably nationalized health care funded by a value-added-tax on the fruits of their labor.
ottovbvs // Apr 3, 2009 at 11:53 am
I’m sure a large number of illegal immigrants have returned home, but how many? Half a million, a million, two million. I can quite believe that but depending on where you were on the 11-20 million illegals spectrum that still leaves an enormous number and the vast majority of them didn’t work in construction. The notion that the US economy is not going to need a continuing supply of low skilled labor to cut grass, pick fruit, paint houses, man multi storey carparks is bizarre in the extreme. It’s central to its functioning. We’re in a recession, the demand for this type of labor has fallen like the demand for highly skilled labor. I’d say the demand for fruit pickers is going to pick up faster than the demand for investment bankers. In short the immigration picture is entirely unchanged in substance. We still have to come up with a pragmatic and humane solution. I suspect this is on Obama’s agenda for next year or maybe 2011 to lock in the latino vote.
barker13 // Apr 3, 2009 at 2:15 pm
“The notion that the US economy is not going to need a continuing supply of low skilled labor to cut grass, pick fruit, paint houses, man multi storey carparks…”Hey Ottovbvs… why don’t you google native born African American employment stats – particularly male… particularly males… let’s say… 16-25. Check out the same stats for native born Hispanics while you’re at it.Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want illegal aliens of ANY ethnic or racial background filling jobs Americans of ANY ethnic or racial background could (and should) be filling, but com’on… if illegal immigrants are “taking the jobs” of anyone, they’re taking the jobs of black male youths and 20-somethings and our own citizen Hispanic male youths and 20-somethings.I mean… what about our own low skill CITIZENS…?!?! For that matter, what of our own medium and even high skilled citizens who find themselves out of jobs, unable to find new comparable jobs in their fields, who would rather take a “menial” job than have none at all?Cutting grass…??? I want citizens cutting grass! I want kids… American kids… mowing home lawns. I want young guys and gals doing commercial mowing. We don’t “need” illegal aliens in order to keep America’s lawns mowed… (*SHAKING MY HEAD IN AMUSEMENT*) Carpark attendants…??? Again… you might wanna check out those citizen unemployment stats.(*SHRUG*)It seems to me that our social safety net should in large part be redirected away from “safety net” to “pole vault.” By this I mean, sure, unemployment checks for a reasonable period of time by all means, but at a certain point the system should basically connect the unemployed with ANY sort of paying job and at some point a person receiving benefits shouldn’t have the option of refusing to take ANY employment offered.We don’t want to create a “dole” in this country and we don’t want foreigners taking available jobs from Americans.Illegal alien employment leads to depressed wages. Does it also enable lower prices? Perhaps. Perhaps short term. But at what societal cost? And also, to what extent are the wage “savings” simply pocketed by the employers of illegal aliens?BILL