RSS Feed MenuNM contributor Dennis Sanders discussed the controversy over the NY-23 congressional race. As Dennis noted, there are three candidates running, Republican Dede Scozzafava, Democrat Bill Owens, and Conservative Doug Hoffman. Dede Scozzafava by all accounts is a more liberal Republican by national standards across the board, and Doug Hoffman is more, well, conservative. That much is true. However, as the Albany Project has also illustrated, Bill Owens is generally considered a more moderate Democrat, and that is what is giving many conservatives pause about the race, in a way that Mark Kirk in Illinois and Michael Castle in Delaware have not in their respective Senate races.
Keep in mind what Texas GOP Rep. Jeb Hensarling said, or implied in his defense of Scozzafava: Bill Owens is the sort of Democrat who can hold a seat in a Republican district for a long time, and I think that’s because of the more moderate tack that he has taken. Bad for Republicans, yes. But is it bad for conservatives? Particularly if he wins with less than 50% of the vote in his first race? As the healthcare debate has shown, moderate Democrats can do a lot to gum up the works even when the Democrats have the majority. And they will most likely have the majority even after 2010.
Put yourself in the shoes of someone who lives by the the motto, “I’m a Conservative, not a Republican!” Assume further that you don’t seriously believe Doug Hoffman will make it to the magic 34% needed to win. What would you rather have, then? A Republican who will give “us” trouble, or a Democrat who might give “them” trouble?
Because that’s the question that the Party of Scozzafava needs to answer in NY-23 if they really need the votes and money from the Party of Hoffman. Saying that “we need to win seats outside of the South” won’t cut it; the main guy pushing the “Republicans are nothin’ but a white, southern, regional party” line across every comments box on the Internet, Markos Moulitsas, endorsed Scozzafava. Saying ‘this is a must-win race’ won’t cut it because, regionalism aside, it’s one seat out of 435, a super-miniscule majority in the House of Representatives would be about as stable as it was for the New York State Senate, and is not very likely anyhow. Saying Scozzafava has the money and institutional support to run the race is fair enough, but isn’t exactly an election slogan, and contradicts the fact that if you’re the NRCC, you’re asking people to pour even more money in.
All that aside, the Republican Party of New York seems to be answering the question well enough, for now. Scozzafava is, in fact, leading. For now. Conservatives outside the district may be making noise, but it hasn’t taken Doug Hoffman past 20% (or, as I call it, “Daggett Range”). For now.
Still, it’s certainly a race to keep an eye on. As you can tell from the above, I’m pretty neutral. I don’t live in the district, so it’s my right.
But what if I did live in the district? What would I do?
That’s easy. I’d move.
I mean, do you realize how high the taxes are in New York state?
sinz54 // Oct 13, 2009 at 12:42 pm
I see! You’re saying it’s better for Republicans to just write off the Northeast rather than have liberal Republicans win there.
Jacob Javits and Ed Brooke must be spinning in their graves.
The Dems have refused to write off any state as hopeless. They ran relatively conservative “Blue Dog” candidates in the South and West. Daily KOS thought that was fine, even though Daily KOS disagreed with these Blue Dogs on a number of issues.
If the Dems can run Blue Dogs in the South and West, why can’t the GOP run relatively liberal “Yellow Dogs” in the Northeast and the Pacific Coast?
The more ideologically pure the party, the smaller it will be.
joemarier // Oct 13, 2009 at 1:08 pm
That’s not, actually, what I’m saying. I don’t think Republicans should write off the Northeast. I am asking whether or not conservatives, as separate and distinct from Republicans, should write off the Northeast, and whether and how Dede should make the case to cut into Hoffman’s support. It’s analysis, not advocacy.
joedee1969 // Oct 14, 2009 at 5:25 am
Blue Dogs and Middle of the road Republicans should start there own party as far as I’m concerned:
http://americaspeaksink.com/2009/10/stuck-in-the-middle-with-you/
sinz54 // Oct 14, 2009 at 9:26 am
joemarier: I don’t think Republicans should write off the Northeast. I am asking whether or not conservatives, as separate and distinct from Republicans, should write off the Northeast
Conservatives don’t like to hear this,
but their fortunes are tied to the fortunes of the GOP. Conservatives cannot be “separate and distinct from Republicans,” unless they want conservatism to remain an impotent minority view in the nation. We have a two-party system. Wins by third-party or independent candidates aren’t unheard of, but they’re so rare as to be insignificant in the greater scheme of things.
The only way for ANYTHING conservative to be done in this country is with a Republican majority. It is inconceivable it could get done any other way.
Conservatives are the bedrock base of the GOP. If they walk out of the Northeast and Pacific coast, and refuse to support GOP candidates there who they regard as insufficiently conservative, then those Republicans cannot win. And the GOP will find it much more difficult, if not impossible, to win a majority in Congress.
A small cadre of conservative representatives in Congress may make conservatives like you feel good, but they won’t be anything but spoilers.
The motto of New Majority is “Building a conservatism that can win again.” And in a diverse country like America, winning requires building a coalition with others on whatever shared interests can be found.
Conservatives should be reminded that one reason that Reagan, a staunch conservative, swept every area of the nation in 1980 was that moderate and liberal Republicans like Jacob Javits campaigned vigorously for him in states like New York.
And that moderate Republicans in Congress can be kept in line by their House and Senate leadership. Even on health care, the ONLY Republican who defected was Snowe. The hated McCain did not.