RSS Feed MenuUntil this week, the best geological estimates of oil reserves indicated that the United States sits atop a scant 3 percent of the world’s remaining oil. Today, there is reason to believe that meager projection was overly optimistic.
One of the most promising onshore areas for oil has been the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPRA). Located on Alaska’s North Slope west of Prudhoe Bay, the massive NPRA was estimated to hold 10.6 billion barrels of oil and 53 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
This week, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), after analyzing new data from three-dimensional seismic surveys and more than 30 exploration wells, released a revised estimate on the amount of “undiscovered” oil and gas that is likely to be found in the NPRA. The results might make the “drill, baby, drill” crowd “cry, baby, cry.”
The USGS now estimates only 896 million barrels of conventional, undiscovered oil lies beneath the NPRA, roughly 10 percent of the 2002 estimate. That amount is enough to supply the U.S. at its current consumption rate for a whopping 45 days.
This not only underscores the urgency of conserving energy and reducing our heavy dependence on oil and other finite fossil fuels, it should also be a cautionary tale for those who have visions of Arctic National Wildlife Refuge oil rigs dancing in their heads.
The estimated amount of oil sitting beneath the Refuge’s coastal plain—and beneath the 400,000 caribou feet that prance across its tundra each summer—has ranged between 4.3 to 11.8 billion barrels. That wide ranging estimate is based primarily on some old seismic testing conducted in the 1980s.
In 1986, a consortium led by Chevron sank the only test well, dubbed KIC-1, ever drilled in the Arctic Refuge. The consortium probed 1,500 feet into one of the most promising formations and ever since has endeavored to keep the results of that test,well, super secret.
Yet, over the years, several anonymous sources familiar with the well have said that it was basically a dry hole.
While the “drill, baby, drill” gang—including the Alaska congressional delegation and Sarah Palin—like to tout Alaska’s North Slope and the Arctic Refuge as America’s Saudi Arabia of oil, the truth is that it holds far less oil than these drilling advocates would have us believe.
They want to bury their heads in the permafrost, ignore geologic realities, and pin America’s energy future to little more than their own baseless and fanciful notions.
Every day that the public and our nation’s leaders are distracted by unrealistic expectations regarding America’s domestic oil reserves, the slower we make the necessary shift towards the alternative energy sources and technologies required to power our future—and the more we enrich our enemies, imperil our security, ravage our environment, and lurch ever closer towards economic ruin.
It’s time to wake up.
balconesfault // Oct 30, 2010 at 5:53 am
We do have a very productive drilling boom going on in America – and in some very safe places to drill – but it’s not Alaska, and not oil.
It’s natural gas being pumped out of shales across the country, and the mcf estimates have been growing astronomically in the last couple years.
I’m going to put in a plug for the new documentary Haynesville – http://www.haynesvillemovie.com/ – saw it the other night and it was very good.
But new natural gas rushes are popping all over – the latest hot play is the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas.
To take advantage, we need to up the move to electric vehicles – including the charging infrastructure needed to support an EV fleet – asap. Natural gas power plants are not that expensive or time consuming to construct, and create a lot less CO2 than coal fired plants … and it looks like we’re going to have a LOT of natural gas for awhile.
This will also give us the bridge to adding more renewables, wind and solar, to our generation mix, since it’s much easier to manage a grid powered primarily by natural gas when adding wind and solar, than to manage a grip powered primarily by coal.
Oh yeah … and since Carney will post his cut and paste here soon … we should also be still pushing bioethanol. Silver buckshot, folks.
TerryF98 // Oct 30, 2010 at 8:32 am
“Drill baby drill”, and “drill here drill now” while standing in the middle of St Paul were always the dumbest, most ignorant and typically Palinesqe stupidity ever.
To see speaker after speaker shout this crap at the all white GOP conventions, and the audience going ballistic in response convinced me that Conservatives really are nothing more than trained seals clapping for another fish.
midcon // Oct 30, 2010 at 8:40 am
I still believe that nuclear power needs to be a large part of the mix because solar and wind are insufficient to meet the demand. Electricity generation needs to be accomplished on both the large scale to power cities and a portable scale to power transportation. Small power plants for homes and vehicles should be the ultimate objective. While solar and wind can augment fixed user power needs, they do not provide adequate capability to moving vehicles. If I were king I would be spending more money for portable power plant research (nuclear, et al) and power storage (batteries – capacitors) using non-petroleum sources.
We really do need to get over our fear of nuclear power at least until we find a source for dilithium crystals. Fortunately there will be a enough oil to last my lifetime because I am certain we as a nation will do nothing until we actually run out. Most Americans tend not be interested unless there is a perceived or real crisis.
sinz54 // Oct 30, 2010 at 9:02 am
balconesfault: It’s natural gas being pumped out of shales across the country, and the mcf estimates have been growing astronomically in the last couple years.
I like it!
An energy bill that emphasized natural gas might well get bipartisan support.
But I am (pleasantly) surprised.
I thought all you progressives wouldn’t accept anything less than immediate conversion to wind and solar power only.
Natural gas, while cleaner-burning than oil and far cleaner-burning than coal, still produces the greenhouse gas CO2. In fact, combustion of anything produces CO2, including the food we eat inside our bodies.
balconesfault // Oct 30, 2010 at 9:42 am
An energy bill that emphasized natural gas might well get bipartisan support.
There’s no need to stick it in any bill. It’s happening on its own.
If there was something to be done, it’s a much stricter regulatory environment for coal – requiring extensive NEPA review before mountaintop removal, putting very strict permit standards in place for coal fly ash ponds (like the one that failed in Tennessee a few years spreading toxic sludge for miles), moratoria on construction of new coal fired power plants, and … oh yeah … a carbon tax.
I thought all you progressives wouldn’t accept anything less than immediate conversion to wind and solar power only.
Newer technology natural gas combined cycle power plants, as I pointed out above, are a good fit for the variable loads that the grid receives. And they also emit about 1/2 the CO2 per KWH that the best technology coal fired power plants emit. Progressives have for quite awhile them touting the benefits of moving from coal to natural gas because of the lower greenhouse gas footprint.
While we need to be rapidly deploying wind and solar, there’s no such thing as immediately converting to it. We will clearly be burning fossil fuels for a long time. But the less we burn coal, and the more we move towards baseline generation capacity that plays well with wind and solar inputs, the faster we’ll move towards real reductions in our national CO2 emissions.
In fact, combustion of anything produces CO2, including the food we eat inside our bodies.
Yeah, but the CO2 burned inside our bodies comes from carbon that’s very recently been sequestered from our atmosphere by plants using solar energy during photosynthesis.
Unless you eat coal, drink oil, and breathe natural gas, anyhow.
That’s the reason it’s carbon neutral if you drink corn ethanol, also. Or burn it in your car. The carbon in the ethanol hasn’t been underground for the last 10 million years, but was rather pulled out of the atmosphere during the last crop cycle.
Watusie // Oct 30, 2010 at 10:15 am
I predict these new findings will be dismissed as a hoax perpetrated by liberal elites who hate America.
Oldskool // Oct 30, 2010 at 11:36 am
That’s good news in that we now have no choice but to get our act together.
One nitpick, caribou have four feet so does “400,000 caribou feet” mean there’s only 100,000 of them?
sdspringy // Oct 30, 2010 at 12:31 pm
A distinction needs to be made between NPRA and ANWR. Two different locations in Alaska separated by a significant amount of miles, its Alaska. As I remember ANWR was the subject of the “Drill Baby Drill” comments not NPRA.
That being said, we do not use oil for electical generation. And as much as I would like to agree with Balcon concerning electrical generation we are decades away from changing the methods used to create electrical power. I certainly have no problem with Balcon ideas, I just don’t see them occurring because of the abundant of natural gas.
Even though combined cycle natural gas plants are very efficient, they still only meet the electrical need as peakers. Even the largest plants which are around 500 MegaWatts only operate as peakers and not as base loaded plants. The market fluctuations of natural gas currently prevent them from being used as base loaded units. They are generally used when the electrical prices exceeds the current cost of the natural gas.
easton // Oct 30, 2010 at 12:53 pm
This week, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), after analyzing new data from three-dimensional seismic surveys and more than 30 exploration wells, released a revised estimate on the amount of “undiscovered” oil and gas that is likely to be found in the NPRA.
pfff, what do they know? Stupid scientists, it is due to sun spots, or it is a hoax.
balconesfault, the one problem with natural gas from shale is the process by which it is removed-called hydrofracking. Until recently I owned a nice size piece of land on top of the Marcellus shale gas deposit in New York state, but because of where my land was located and because of NY politics I couldn’t get drilling rights and lord knows when they will allow it. Even if they allow drilling since my land was so close to the Dela ware river I doubt I was going to get the right to lease, so I sold my land (for a fantastic profit, and I am dreading next years tax return as I send a nice share of the profit to Uncle Sam but if the leasing rights come through then I sold it for a far more fantastic loss, take your pick)
You can just google the term and you can see why a place like NY is reluctant to do so, the ecological damage is significant.
A few quibbles with this piece, while there might be less oil in Alaska as we thought there is also far, far more oil in the gulf. At Jack2 in the Lower Tertiary play in the Gulf of Mexico alone there is between an estimated 3 to 15 billion barrels of oil, and this is one site alone.
In the Gulf there is a staggering amount of oil, the issues for us are cost and safety. Anything over $80 a barrel to extract would be a waste since it only costs the Saudis $5 to extract a barrel of oil.
Lets also not forget that Canada and Mexico both have huge reserves of oil themselves and that we share a common market, the wealthier these countries are the wealthier we will also be due to increased trade (they are not going to spend their petrodollars in the middle east)
I am with midcon (more nukes, better storage) on this as well as Carney and his flex fuel tech. We have got to get rid of the tariff on biofuels from Brazil.
Sinz, the University I teach at has Petroleum Engineering as its premier major, and it exists in large part due to Pemex funding, there is a huge refinery in Salina Cruz as well, in spite of this my University has recently opened Wind and Solar power advanced degrees. Near my home is a massive wind farm at La Ventosa, and there is enough sunlight in 6 minutes to power the needs of this entire country. I paid $3 a month for my electrical usage and I don’t have gas. The combination of solar (water heater) and wind (from the turbines) is incredible. Don’t knock it.
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djenkins // Nov 1, 2010 at 3:40 pm
Oldskool, I believe that the Porcupine Caribou Herd which migrates to the Arctic Refuge caostal plain is 100,000 strong, so I had my foot count correct.
easton, while the recoverable oil estimates in the Gulf of Mexico have gone up, most of that oil is not easy or cheap to extract. These are still estimates and we would not even be searching for those high cost deposits if we had not already burned through most of the easy stuff.
Alaska Coalition » Blog Archive » ARCTIC REFUGE // Nov 4, 2010 at 4:14 pm
[...] The Arctic is all around us. Every year, birds that begin their lives on the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge journey to all 50 states and across six continents, before heading back to the Arctic, where the cycle of life begins again. The Arctic is the origin of life for more than just birds – numerous species of mammals bear their young on this vast expanse of tundra including polar bears, caribou and more. As we mark the 50th anniversary of the Arctic Refuge, we must do everything we can to be sure that this last wild haven remains protected for generations to come. · ACTION: S231 (Bill to designate a portion of the Arctic Refuge as wilderness) – There are currently 26 cosponsors. If your senator hasn't already done so, please encourage him/her to become a cosponsor. · ACTION: HR39 (Udall-Eisenhower Arctic Wilderness Act) – Currently, there are 114 cosponsors. Please check here to see if your representative is a cosponsor. If not, please encourage him/her to sign on now by clicking here!· UPDATE: U.S. Congress, CONSERVATION Groups call for the strongest possible protections for the arctic national wildlife refuge – 57 Members of U.S. Congress Send Letter to President Obama Calling for the Strongest Protections of the Iconic Arctic Refuge on its 50th Anniversary – In early October, Representative Edward Markey (D-MA) led a letter, signed by 56 other Members of the House of Representatives to President Obama, calling for the strongest possible protections for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge during this historic year – the 50th anniversary of its original creation. Despite numerous battles to open the Refuge for drilling throughout the years, strong bi-partisan support has kept the Refuge protected. The House Members stated in the letter that, “now is the time to grant the Refuge the strong, long-term protections it deserves so that we can pass this unspoiled American treasure to our children and grandchildren.” A recent poll shows that a vast majority of Americans support commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Refuge by granting it stronger protections. The poll showed that more than 60 percent of Americans would like to see the Arctic Refuge recognized at a level on par with other pristine landmarks such as the Grand Canyon, Muir Woods, and Yellowstone. As Representative Markey, chairman of the twin energy committees in the U.S. Congress said, “The BP Deepwater Horizon spill of nearly 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico this summer was one of the worst environmental disasters in our nation’s history. The BP spill is a stark reminder that when it comes to oil drilling there is no such thing as ‘immaculate extraction.’ On the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the Arctic Refuge, the time has come to grant this unique and pristine American treasure the strong protections that it deserves.”· UPDATE: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service announced on September 27 that it would exercise its authority under federal law to conduct a wilderness review for nearly all non-Wilderness areas of the Arctic Refuge, including the Coastal Plain, as part of the Comprehensive Conservation Planning (CCP) process. This will determine if these areas should be designated as Wilderness. While the Arctic Refuge is the only National Wildlife Refuge in the United States that was created specifically for its wilderness values, a full wilderness study of the Coastal Plain has never been conducted. · UPDATE: Americans Call for Stronger Protections for the Arctic Refuge – October 18 marked 50 days until the 50th Anniversary of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge – On October 18, Americans from across the country called on President Obama to ask for the strongest protections possible for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge on its 50th anniversary. Schoolchildren, teachers, and concerned citizens – over 12,000 participants – celebrated the anniversary across the country in the largest nationwide kite flying event. Over 200 events occurred across the country in 32 states.· MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS: Kit DesLauriers to present “Journey Through The Arctic Refuge”; House Dems push for more ANWR protection; Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 50th Anniversary – A Pictorial Odyssey Amidst Renewed Debate; Consider a wilderness designation; Research rockets rain down on ANWR; Operation “Drill, Baby, Drill” Goes Bust· RADIO STORIES/ VIDEOS: Indelible images capture ANWR's beauty; PROBLEMS IN THE ALASKAN WILDERNESS· EVENTS: Steven Kazlowski (The Last Polar Bear photographer) exhibit up in Portland –November 10th at Cheatham Hall & Discovery Museum 7:00 – 9:00pm [...]