RSS Feed MenuThe most notable outcome from Tuesday night’s election is the continuing high level of enthusiasm among GOP voters turning out for primaries. In Florida, an active and, at times, contentious Democratic primary drew just over 800,000 voters in nominating Congressman Kendrick Meek. On the Republican side, where Marco Rubio ran an essentially uncontested race for the GOP nomination, over 1.2 million votes were cast.
Of course, the real race in Florida has never been between the Republican and Democratic candidates but in the split among Republicans between Rubio and Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist. Early polling on the race was inconclusive as to which Democrat would have the greatest impact on the November outcome. More recent polls of likely voters show that with Meek as the nominee, Rubio stretches his lead over Crist to between 5 and 8 points. This week’s Democratic-affiliated Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Rubio leading Crist 40 to 32 with Meek picking up just 17 percent and 11 percent remaining undecided. It is hard to imagine how Meek’s share of the vote could drop much further which means Crist must capture almost 75 percent of the undecided vote in order to close the gap with Rubio. Any Crist effort to court Democrats more assiduously than he already is would probably backfire by driving moderate Republicans and independent voters toward Rubio. It isn’t over until it’s over but Crist has a very steep hill to climb.
In Arizona, the Mac is Back. McCain’s victory over J.D. Hayworth is a reminder that money still matters –even in a year when incumbency is a dirty word. Preliminary accounting shows McCain outspent Hayworth by 10-to-1. Moreover, McCain’s campaign was strategically and tactically brilliant in breaking Hayworth’s hold on the conservative base of the party. Makes one wonder: where was this John McCain in 2008? John Heilmann and Mark Helprin argue in Game Change that the meandering nature of the presidential campaign was an outgrowth of McCain’s ambivalence about running for president in the first place. McCain’s performance over the past year should put to rest any doubts that he really wants to continue as a United States Senator and probably will.
abj // Aug 25, 2010 at 10:14 am
Definitely bad news for Crist.
It’s simply inconceivable that the national or state Democratic Party would throw an African American U.S. Senate candidate under the bus, regardless of how poorly he polls. Every major state and national Democrat will line up behind Meek. Crist’s hope for a tacit alliance with Democrats has just evaporated.
This isn’t to say he can’t win. Of any Senate contest this cycle, this one is probably the most unpredictable.
easton // Aug 25, 2010 at 10:40 am
abj, yeah, I always figured Crist’s best chance to win was to run as an independent Republican, kind of like Joe Lieberman ran as an independent Democrat in Ct. with the tacit understanding that if Crist won he would caucus with the Republicans (but retain a high independence factor) the same as Lieberman. But Crist seems to be running as an independent Democrat, at least from my understanding that he will caucus with the Democrats.
I still think Crist has a shot if he makes a lot more indications that he will caucus with the Republicans, then he can also claim a kind of high road which will still appeal to Democrats. After all, Republicans voted for Lieberman and abandoned the Republican nominee under just such a rationale.
jabbermule // Aug 25, 2010 at 10:50 am
Most Republicans won’t ever consider voting for Crist after he intimated that he would caucus with the Dems, so he came off looking like an opportunist rather than a high-minded idealist like Lieberman. Nobody likes a turncoat when it’s done for pure political gain (see Arlen Specter). Plus, any votes for Meek will clearly siphon votes away from Crist, and Meek has the one-two punch endorsement of both Clinton and Obama.
Crist is finished unless Sarah Palin comes in at the last minute to endorse Rubio, then Crist may still have a fighting chance. Hopefully she’ll keep her opinions to herself when it comes to this race.
eugibs // Aug 25, 2010 at 10:58 am
Crist is in an impossible position. First of all, he owes it to the electorate to tell them who he will caucus with if he wins. His hiding the ball on this issue, in his attempt to be all things to all people, is particularly slimy (even for him). Assuming he does eventually announce his intentions, pretty much either decision dooms his candidacy.
If he says he will caucus with the Republicans, he will lose nearly all the Democratic support that he absolutely must have in order to win the race. If he says he will caucus with the Dems, he alienates the overall majority of voters who would like to see change in government. It’s also a particularly hard sell for a guy who had spent the better part of the last 2 years touting his conservative Republican bona fides. All Rubio has to do is start showing clips of Crist’s comments in debates and stump speeches from less than 6 months ago, and he will be exposed for what he is: the ultimate opportunist who will whore himself for votes.
The only reason Crist has polled moderately well the last few months is that he has cast himself as the guy in the race who is all things to all people. However, now as both Meek and Rubio, who both will I assume have more money on hand then him, hone in on him and scrutinize his candidacy, he is almost certain to crumble.
eugibs // Aug 25, 2010 at 11:05 am
At least Lieberman could claim some sort of moral high ground with the a straight face. He made the very plausible argument that his positions (economically liberal, foreign policy hawk) had never changed and he was still the same man he had always been. He was running to defend his particular ideological brand.
In the matter of Crist, he is literally now taking positions that are the exact opposite of positions he was taking a few months ago. Earlier this year, he was arguing that he was the true conservative in a race against Marco Rubio, and now he is basically running as some sort of quasi-independent-minded Obama Democrat. How is this in any way justifiable? Politics is severely broken if someone as unseemly as this is rewarded.
easton // Aug 25, 2010 at 11:17 am
eugibs: If he says he will caucus with the Republicans, he will lose nearly all the Democratic support that he absolutely must have in order to win the race.
No, I disagree. Lieberman said he would caucus with the Democrats but he won the overwhelming support of Republicans in Ct. Now I don’t know if it would be the same in Florida, but I think the same logic holds. Better someone who will vote with your interests 30 to 40% of the time (Crist) against someone who will never do so.
Carney // Aug 25, 2010 at 11:43 am
“Makes one wonder: where was this John McCain in 2008?”
McCain’s eagerness to take on those to his right, and his reluctance to do the same for those to his left, has been obvious for well over a decade. Obama got kid-gloves treatment, but Hayworth got the brass knuckles.
eugibs // Aug 25, 2010 at 12:10 pm
easton – but the difference in CT was that the Republicans did not have their own viable candidate. He was mired in ethics scandals and was polling under 10 percent even before Lieberman announced his independent candidacy.
Meeks probably cannot win, but he is a young, black Congressman who the Dems probably have hopes for in the future. I find it hard to believe they will throw him out with the trash just to elect an unsavory character who might vote their interests 30 percent of the time. Compound that with the fact that black voters make up a very large segment of FL Dems, and you really are comparing apples an oranges when you try to take any lessons from 2006 CT and apply them to 2010 FL.
My guess is that FL Dems, especially black Dems, would rather lose and show Meeks love, then saddle themselves with Charlie Crist for the next 6 years.
eugibs // Aug 25, 2010 at 12:21 pm
Not to mention the very high profile endorsements Meeks has received from Obama and Clinton. I’m pretty sure that no high profile Republican even knew the CT Republican’s name in 2006. The Republican establishment implicitly endorsed Lieberman. I just don’t see that being true in FL right now. They are actively working to elect Meeks.
abj // Aug 25, 2010 at 12:28 pm
easton -
Now I don’t know if it would be the same in Florida, but I think the same logic holds. Better someone who will vote with your interests 30 to 40% of the time (Crist) against someone who will never do so.
There’s nothing wrong with the logic, but in practice, I don’t think it’ll work for Crist. I saw him on Larry King last night, and when asked which party he’d caucus with, he said, “I’ll caucus with the people of Florida.” That’s one of the lamest comments I think I’ve ever heard a candidate for elective office make. Everyone knows he’ll have to choose a party. To me, comments like that just come across as hokey and dishonest, but I admit, I’m not a big fan of the guy anyway. It does provide a sharp contrast to Lieberman’s “independent Democrat” line. No one doubted he remained a committed Democrat, and would continue caucusing with the Democrats if elected. With Crist, no such assurances exist.
easton // Aug 25, 2010 at 5:39 pm
abj, I laughed out loud when I read that. Oy vey. (as Lieberman might say)
BloggyBayou // Aug 25, 2010 at 11:37 pm
Crist is losing it here in Florida, folks… His negative ratings are up, he is the governor who has 14% unemployment and he embraced Obamanomics..He IS TOAST…
Here is the Icing on the cake:
http://www.practicalstate.com/?p=1893
Sorry, Charlie!
Cheers
Posting From Fake America // Aug 26, 2010 at 3:29 am
I wouldn’t necessarily count Charlie out just yet. He had a pretty solid lead in the polls until very recently. Candidates who are polling a distant third tend to under-perform on election night since their supporters don’t want to “throw their vote away.” If Meek is still far behind come November, expect more defections come election night.
sinz54 // Aug 26, 2010 at 9:18 am
The Dem base won’t ever desert Meek, an African-American with a famous name and consistently liberal policies. Loyal Dems will stick with him.
That means that Crist has to depend almost entirely on Independent voters. Given the breakdown of GOP-Dem-Ind in FL, Crist would have to win a whopping 75% of Ind voters to win on their votes alone.
And Crist is now fighting a two-front war: Rubio criticizes Crist as an opportunist who’s moving left, and Meek is criticizing Crist as an opportunist who isn’t really as moderate as he claims.
Rubio’s chances just got a whole lot better.
If this keeps up, the new Congress in 2011 won’t just have fewer Dems. It will be sharply more right-wing.