Only three of New York State’s 29 congressional districts still return Republicans to the US House of Representatives. One of those three is the huge district that spreads from Syracuse to Vermont along the Canadian border. That district, NY-23, was held by John McHugh, tapped by President Obama as Secretary of the Army.
Now there is a real risk that the district could fall into Democratic hands, as the historically Republican 20th district did in 2006.
Republican county chairmen nominated Dede Scozzafava (now a Republican member of the state assembly) as their candidate. The chairmen opted for this top-down process in order to avoid a primary battle that – they feared – would have nominated an unelectable candidate. The 23d voted 52% for Barack Obama in 2008.
Many conservatives both in-state and out-of-state are offended by the choice. The Club for Growth is backing the Conservative Party candidacy of Doug Hoffman. So are national pro-life organizations, who dislike Scozzafava’s pro-choice views and her acceptance of same-sex marriage.
While Scozzafava still leads Democrat Bill Owens in the most recent polling she does so only by an 8-point margin in a district where Republicans have a 12-point registration advantage. Clearly, the Hoffman candidacy is biting into the Republican lead.
Hoffman himself has no hope of winning: the latest poll shows him at just 10% voter support. But national conservatives are following the old Tammany Hall rule that it is better to lose the election than lose control of the party.
What’s lost sight of here is that Scozzafava is actually a very mainstream New York Republican. While her views on gay marriage and abortion would run to the left of the GOP these days, I checked up on her record in the New York legislature on various issues and found her in the mainstream of conservatism. According to Project Vote Smart, she has a pretty conservative record when it comes to taxes. And the National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund gave her an “A” in 2008.
Probably the most balanced assessment of her record comes (embarrassingly) from a liberal blog, the Albany Project. While conservative blogs resort to hyperbolic language in their effort to justify Hoffman’s kamikaze run, the Albany Project blogger sifts the record and writes that:
The conclusion I draw from looking over numerous pieces of legislation is that Scozzafava on most issues is nothing more than your average Assembly Republican. Most of the votes that she did support the Democratic (or progressive) positions came when the whole Assembly voted unanimously for a bill. Scozzafava’s conservative positions are not reflected in the mainstream media, where she is labeled a “liberal” because of her stances on two social issues that, while important, should never define any candidate and should never be the sole indicator of a candidate’s ideology.
I see Scozzafava as someone who is far from the Glenn Becks of the world. But that doesn’t mean she is not conservative. The modern-day conservative is a different breed, but a lot of what Scozzafava stands for resembles an old school conservative. At best, she’s a moderate with conservative leanings. At worst, she’s a conservative Republican whose liberal stances on two social issues have given her an inaccurate label.
If Scozzafava were to make it to Congress, she would stand with the national party 80 percent of the time. Democrat Bill Owens – and it’s the Democrat, not Hoffman, who is the real alternative – by contrast would support Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid 80% of the time. Ronald Reagan had something to say about having someone as their 80 percent friend and not their 20 percent enemy. It’s too bad his supposed heirs have missed the message.
8 responses so far
1 Nugan // Oct 12, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Actually, you’re misrepresenting the poll results. There have been three polls conducted so far, but the poll that I think you’re referring to is the Sienna Research poll, which found that Doug Hoffman had 16% support, not 10%. The other two polls showed him at 17% and 19%, but they were conducted by Club For Growth and his own campaign respectively, so they are less trustworthy.
In a race that has just begun, it is highly unusual to see a third party candidate with such high numbers. It is also worth noting that the Sienna poll was conducted before CFG began their advertising blitz for Hoffman.
That’s not to say that he will win. It’s still far more likely that Owens or Scozzafava will. However, it is disingenuous to say he has “no hope,” and even more disingenuous to use false numbers to make your point.
2 sinz54 // Oct 12, 2009 at 3:12 pm
It’s not just because of social issues.
Three more reasons conservatives are upset with Scozzafava:
She had received the endorsement of the liberal Working Families Party, which has ties to ACORN.
She voted for Governor Paterson’s huge budget.
She supported the bank bailouts.
Scozzafava is a definite Republican moderate. And RedState.com wants her defeated, because they want to sharpen the distinctions between the GOP and Obama. They’re ignoring the fact that her predecessor, McHugh, also a Republican moderate, won election in NY-23 with 70% of the vote. It’s not a right-wing district; it’s a centrist or perhaps center-right district. A hard-right candidate cannot win there.
The GOP base’s suicide complex continues.
3 sinz54 // Oct 12, 2009 at 3:14 pm
What RedState.com is doing, is pushing Hoffman so that he’ll be a spoiler and keep Scozzafava from winning by siphoning off conservative votes from her. Then they can come back and say “See? See? We told you RINOs can’t win elections! Throw them out of the party!”
The GOP base’s suicide complex continues.
4 joemarier // Oct 12, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Actually, if Owens wins, they’ll say,
“1. Well, he’s a social moderate and a fiscal moderate, so no big whoop.
2. Plus, if he wins with a minority of the vote, his more conservative constituents will have all the more leverage over him.
3. If he wins with a majority of the vote, that’s hardly our fault, is it?
4. Sure it’s one less Republican vote, but unless we come one short in the future, how much does it really matter? And who’s to say she’d stay a Republican if she’s the swing vote in the House?”
I don’t have a dog in this fight. I’m contributing nothing but my opinion this cycle, and live outside of NY-23. But I’m not too unhappy whoever wins.
5 Nugan // Oct 12, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Actually sinz, McHugh may have been a moderate on certain issues, but he certainly was not one on social issues.
Check out his record:
http://www.ontheissues.org/NY/John_McHugh.htm
He has a 100% rating from the NRLC (National Right to Life), so he certainly was not pro-choice. He also supported a national gay marriage ban and a ban on allowing same sex couple to adopt, so he is certainly not pro-LGBT rights. His stance on economic issues is a bit more moderate, but on social issues he was a hard right conservative. This makes him a very, very different candidate than Scozzafava.
What a lot of people who do not live in the 23rd district do not realize is that it is, in many ways, a lot more like the south or rural midwest than the rest of New York. It is mostly rural, severely economically disadvantaged and strongly socially conservative. Yes, it went for Obama by a small margin, but that had a lot to do with economic desperation and distrust of McCain. It is not a moderate district, and if Hoffman were running on the Republican party line, this race would probably not be a contest. As it is it’s going to be a very messy race and the winner (if it’s Owens or Scozzafava, as seems likely) is going to face a very difficult election a year from now.
6 norinos // Oct 13, 2009 at 1:11 pm
The last thing this country needs is a “mainstream New York Republican” like Scozzafava. Not only is she to left of most Congressional Republicans when it comes to social issues, she is would apparently be more comfortable in the Congressional Democratic Caucus on fiscal matters. She refused to sign a pledge not to raise taxes and has stated that she would have voted for the Obama-Pelosi-Reid stimulus bill – a bill the vast majority of GOPers voted against.
As for having a good NRA record – so what? The North Country is gun country and everyone is pro-second amendment.
Dede will not win with a real conservaive in the race. If she wants to prove her loyalty to the GOP, she should step aside for the candidate that more closely resembles mainstream Republican thinking – Doug Hoffman.
What do you say Dennis?
7 spikeytx86 // Oct 14, 2009 at 12:00 am
This idiocy needs to stop. Once the primary is over the party should coalesce in support of our candidates. As the Democrats proved with the blue dogs to their liberal base, it doesn’t matter if their conservatives or moderates, all that matters is that they vote for liberal house and senate leadership who are the ones who will ultimately decide what legislation is pursued.
We need to follow suit. As long as they vote for conservative leadership in the house and senate that’s all we should care about. They can say and do whatever they want to keep or get their seats. As long as they support conservative leadership which will ultimately decide on what get’s pursued legislation wise.
And just like a lot of the base should stop being so short sighted, our GOP representatives and Senators need to start being more team players. The democrats can crack a party line vote a lot easier then we ever seem to be able to accomplish. On big bills the members should vote the party line if it’s necessary to either pass or defeat priority legislation.
8 sinz54 // Oct 14, 2009 at 9:30 am
spikeytx86:
Are you kidding???
The Dems can’t seem to get anything passed in a reasonable amount of time, despite huge majorities in Congress including a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Even health care, Obama’s top domestic priority, has been dragging and dragging, as they squabble and squabble.
Can you imagine what the GOP could accomplish with a 60 vote majority in the Senate?
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