My colleague Boris Shor has performed some analysis (jointly with Nolan McCarty) on the ideological positions of state legislators. The estimates are based on state legislative voting, which might make you wonder how you could possibly compare legislators in one state with those in another. The trick is that some state representatives (for example, Barack Obama) also end up in Congress. There are enough of these overlap cases that you can put legislators from all 50 states on a common scale.
Boris and Nolan most recently applied their method to compare Dede Scozzofava, a state assemblywoman running on the Republican ticket in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district. Boris writes:
Scozzafava has been assailed from the right for being far too liberal. For example, the libertarian Wall Street Journal this morning wrote, “Democrats want to portray this race as a familiar moderate-conservative GOP split, but the real issue is why Ms. Scozzafava is a Republican at all. She has voted for so many tax increases that the Democrat is attacking her as a tax raiser. She supported the Obama stimulus, and she favors “card check” to make union organizing easier, or at least she did until a recent flip-flop. . .” The conservative National Review writes: “In spite of its having gone for Obama in 2008, the district’s history suggests that it is basically conservative; Ms. Scozzafava is basically not. Boy, is she not. . . .”
Actually, though, Boris and Nolan find Scozzafava to be pretty much in the exact center on a national scale:
Her ideological “common space” score is 0.02. These scores, similar but far superior to interest group ratings, put state legislators around the country on the same scale with each other, as well as with members of Congress.
Being in the center nationally puts Scozzafava to the right in New York:
Scozzafava’s score puts her in the 58th percentile of her party, which makes her slightly more conservative than the average Republican legislator in Albany, so she’s a conservative in her [state] party.
Here’s Boris’s graph showing the estimated positions of Democratic and Republican legislators in all 50 states in the past decade:
The Republican Party appears to be particularly liberal in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Hawaii, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Oregon, Illinois, and Delaware (although not, as has been much remarked, in California). (The gray lines on the graph show the average ideologies of congressional Democrats and Republicans in approximately the same time period.)
8 responses so far
1 sinz54 // Oct 22, 2009 at 9:47 am
True.
And the GOP base wants all those “RINOs” thrown out of the party.
RedState.com wants Olympia Snowe thrown out of the GOP. The fact that Snowe won in 2006 (a bad year for Republicans) with 68% of the vote doesn’t matter to them: Let’s throw her out and run a hard-core right-winger who will lose to Democrats and give us another Democrat to complain about!!!
2 ottovbvs // Oct 22, 2009 at 10:27 am
…..God knows what all this is supposed to tell us although I presume it’s some kind of commercial for Scozzafava …….The NY 23 situation is just one small symptom of the great Republican unravelling…….I live in one of these ultra liberal Republican states and the party has its share of nut cases here as it does everywhere else believe me…….it’s not particularly relevant because party perceptions are largely driven by national preoccupations……..the perceptions of the GOP are being driven by the increasingly zany antics of its media drummers and it’s predominantly southern/rural fundamentalist representation in congress which have limited appeal in the NE/mid Atlantic and West Coast states and a dwindling amount everywhere else outside the south, Utah and some of the plain states.
3 Cforchange // Oct 22, 2009 at 11:29 am
Even with the extra publicity, she most likely will not win. But this election is exposing what really is going on. If she loses it will prove that the sorta behind the scenes right to life crusade should be separated from the national platform. Even considering states rights – NY would definately uphold rights granted by RvW, making this “conservative” exercise ridiculous and meddling. The minority Republican really despises the personal control that the base is trying to impose.
The last 10 years has revealed that candiates who appease this cause do not present themselves to be competant at business managment – its hard to juggle a crusade and run a wild organization like government. We have all paid a big price for misprioritized issues. Placing government management as top mission is where the GOP should go. The appeal of this single issue crosses all boundries – gender, race and party. How else are we going to undo all this “political entertainment” damage.
Not considering the WH efforts, the GOP itself is on a crash course to alienate alot of people. Wow o Wow. It really appears that the “conservatives” are on the big suicide mission – it’s a now or never mentality. If the “conservative” candidate should lose, it’s really time for the minority left in the party to be promoted to the “base” position for issue focus and for membership growth.
The term “conservative” is toast. It has really been distorted and no longer in any way has a positive connotation to the average citizen. That part of the WH effort has worked – but they could not have accomplished this alone! Just wondering whose going to have their zipper down or both feet in their mouth next week?
4 mpolito // Oct 22, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Here’s the problem with this: I do not doubt that Scozzafava is conservative by New York standards. But she is not running to represent all of New York- she is running in the 23rd congressional district, which is a moderate district but leans right. If she was running against Chuck Schumer for the Senate, her positions would make sense. But the 23rd district is not liberal, and her views do not fit it.
I do not deny that candidates need to tailor their views to their districts to a certain degree. I see the GOP doing this all the time in my home state of Connecticut, and I understand it as neccesary in politics. But there is a still a line to cross.
Typically, liberal Republicans ditch social issues first and then fiscal issues. However, not only is Scozzafava a social liberal (pro-choice, pro-same-sex marriage, Margaret Sanger award winner) but she is a fiscal liberal too. She is pro-card check, pro-stimulus, and will not committ to opposing a public option. Does that really fit with the 23rd district?
In addition to all of this, she and her campaign are incompetent and a disgrace; they called the cops on a reporter from the Weekly Standard and then lied about what he had done. There is now audio evidence that they were dishonest to the police. Truly, a collossal embarrassment. The party regulars who lined up behind her are about to learn that while moderation is fine, this sort of moderation is ludicrous.
5 ottovbvs // Oct 22, 2009 at 1:35 pm
…….This race is shaping up to be a win win for the Democrats……….Best case scenario; they win the seat and the civil war in the GOP accelerates……Worst case; another serious Republican nut(because Scoff is probably toast) heads to Washington and civil war accelerates.
6 Jewels // Oct 22, 2009 at 2:35 pm
my response is… so what? Hoffman is perfectly viable. If Scozzafava were not in the race he would be the frontrunner.
We have an opportunity to bring more conservative values to NY, but instead we’re going to elect another RINO… why? Because that’s what we’ve BEEN doing and we wouldn’t want to rock the boat?
7 ottovbvs // Oct 22, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Jewels // Oct 22, 2009 at 2:35 pm
……If a Republicn wins it will be most likely Hoffman
8 ottovbvs // Oct 22, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Jewels // Oct 22, 2009 at 2:35 pm
“my response is… so what? Hoffman is perfectly viable. If Scozzafava were not in the race he would be the frontrunner.”
……He is the front runner……….If either of them wins it’s likely to be Hoffman………he’s perfectly viable in today’s Republican party which tells you where the GOP is today……..If the Democrat doesn’t win, Hoffman is the second best option…….for the Democrats
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