RSS Feed MenuA constitutional crisis is looming in Britain. Labour is currently leading the count with 31 declared victories, but exit polls indicate that the Tories are likely to emerge as the single biggest party, with at least 307 seats. That figure, however, is 18 seats short of an overall majority. Convention dictates that the incumbent Prime Minister be given the first right to form a government – and Labour party officials are intensely wooing the Lib Dems — who are projected to win just under 60 seats — calling for a coalition of “progressives” to lock the Conservatives out of power.
The Conservative party, however, has sent sharp signals to indicate that should they emerge as the single biggest bloc in the House of Commons, David Cameron will ignore constitutional convention and stake claim to 10 Downing Street. In theory, this will mean driving up to Buckingham Palace and presenting himself to the Queen as leader of the single-largest party in the Commons. In practice, it may place the monarch — the neutral third-leg of the British parliament — at the centre of a bitter political crisis. Can Her Majesty ignore convention and ordain Cameron? Or will she, in deference to Gordon Brown’s constitutional right to the first stab at forming the government, simply refuse to see Cameron? All we know at present is that the Queen does not wish to see anybody before lunch tomorrow.
The latest declared results (2.30am BST):
Labour: 53
Lib Dem: 5
Conservative: 39
Others: 16
DaveEliason // May 7, 2010 at 12:21 am
Just so you know, the UK doesn’t actually have a constitution. The British constitution is convention and nothing more. The UK is governed by the doctrine of Parliamentary sovereignty. If parliament does it, then it is constitutional.
Think of Britain as an elected dictatorship and you are on the right track.
Thus, this is not a constitutional crisis, but a parliamentary crisis. And it would be shocking if the queen was the tie breaker. What is likely to happen is that Labor will get first crack at a coalition, and the lib dems will tell them to go stuff themselves (anti establishment politicians can’t prop up the establishment and retain creditability), then the Tories will give it a go and the lib dems will tell them that they won’t form a coalition with them, but will back a minority Tory government if it agrees to a list of legislative demands, including reform of the British electoral system which cripples third parties, like the US.
ottovbvs // May 7, 2010 at 6:43 am
……There isn’t a constitutional crisis looming despite the operatic language……similar situations arose in 1964 with Wilson and 1974 with Heath…..and coalition negotiations are a common occurrence across Europe where proportional representation is the norm……I’m inclined to agree with DaveEliason’s interpretation of the likely course of events with one caveat……. the conservatives are not going to agree to electoral reform whereas Labor probably would and this makes the attitude of the Lib Dems something of a wild card……the reasons for this are fairly straightforward if you look at shares of vote……the party of the center right (conservatives) looks likely to end up with around 36% of the vote while the parties of the center left Labor (@29%) and Lib Dem (@23%) collectively captured 52% of the vote……thus electoral reform is likely to result in indefinite center left govt…..not an appealing prospect for the conservatives.
sinz54 // May 7, 2010 at 10:02 am
ottovbs:
The Lib Dems ended up with only 59 seats.
That was much less than had been anticipated,
and their clout has been reduced accordingly.
Tories have about 304 and Labor 255.
As in America, the popular vote totals usually don’t end up reflecting the election results. And the election results are what matter.
Nobody remembers what the popular vote totals were in the 1994 election that swept the GOP to power. They didn’t have a sizable majority of the popular vote. But in Britain as here, the districts aren’t drawn to reflect one man, one vote.
ottovbvs // May 7, 2010 at 11:24 am
sinz54 // May 7, 2010 at 10:02 am
sinz54 // May 7, 2010 at 10:02 am
ottovbs:
“The Lib Dems ended up with only 59 seats.
That was much less than had been anticipated,
and their clout has been reduced accordingly.”
……..Sinz you are truly clueless…….if their “clout has been reduced accordingly” why are Cameron and Brown now going to particpate in a bidding contest for their support(Labor’s at 258 btw)……what is staggering about this result is that after Labor have been in power for 13 years and given their parlous state Cameron still only got 36% of the vote…….hardly a resounding endorsement for a conservative government is it when the center left parties capture around 52% of the vote
Ultraworld // May 8, 2010 at 2:08 am
Why is this a crisis?