Now, that has to be the lamest attempt to curry favor and stop the permanent identification of ottoBS as the New Majority Village Idiot.

Plus, it’s a lie. Obama has great company with this trolling O-bot, ottoBS.

The above is a possible explanation for the CIA’s failing to predict the fall of the USSR but doesn’t offer a rationale for the failure to correctly estimate nuclear development. Also, both failures, to predict the demise of the USSR and to predict the nuclear development of various nations, were failures in which virtually ALL Western intel agencies also failed.

Obviously, intelligence gathering is always guesswork and can easily be prejudiced by bias within the intelligence community. I’ve entertained the idea that the intelligence agencies, just as among the academics, the intellectuals and the news providers(MSM), are biased toward a progressive viewpoint. Thus, the USSR was seen as impregnable and prosperous – with no chance to fail – a myth foisted by the intellectual elite since the Russian revolution.

The incorrect nuclear development estimates could be ascribed to a common Progressive meme possibly present throughout Western intel entities – that other nations nuking up is only right and fair – that since the US and other Western nations have nukes that it would be a good and fair thing to sort of even the playing field, so to speak, with other nations also having nukes. There is this idea that the West in general and the US specifically has been arrogant and criminal and needs to be humbled on the world stage as punishment for crimes against humanity.

Thus it would not be furthering this situation(parity of nukes) to be alarming certain conservation political elements in the West with reports that any nation is about to join the nuclear community. Let THAT be a complete surprise and perhaps even enjoy a secret satisfaction at the shock and chagrin experienced by those you hold in contempt.

While such deviations from reality, such false interpretations of history, were relatively harmless with India and Pakistan(at least at the time) and as history has ultimately proven, even with the USSR and China, the acquisition of nukes by fanatics like the Iranian mullahs is quite a different thing. There is a fundamental difference in the attitude of the Islamists and the historical and cultural outlook of the USSR, China and India.

We now have to contend with warfare by proxy and the distinct possibility that the terrorists and the nations that sponsor them will do what entities such as the USSR and China would be unwilling to do. If enough Islamic hostiles gain access to WMD sooner or later the US will suffer a catastrophe that will make 9/11 seem insignificant. Being humbled is one thing, being destroyed is quite another.

“Consequently, I put little faith in these agencies, especially the CIA. They have a spotless record of being way of the mark EVERY time.”

………You got me there……Superficially I’d have to agree with your take on the CIA…….when I was visiting Russia in the late 70’s it was obvious the Soviet Union was on its last legs but it seemed to have escaped the CIA’s notice……of course they may actually have known all along but because keeping people scared was the key to big budget appropriations for the CIA and Pentagon it might have suited them to exaggerate the threat……yer think?

Maybe US or British intelligence HAS come up with this scenario – maybe not. What kind of bothers me is the fact that Western intelligence agencies have been wrong on their nuclear capability estimates since the inception of the atomic age. Russia, China, Pakistan, India – all these nations had a deliverable WMD far ahead of ALL Western intelligence estimates, catching the intel agencies completely by surprise. Consequently, I put little faith in these agencies, especially the CIA. They have a spotless record of being way of the mark EVERY time.

But what IF CIA DID have such a scenario? It seems to me that there would be little they could do to prevent it – absent a policy of striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, that is. But the attitude such as possessed by the commentor makes that sort of decisive action politically unlikely. Oil prices might go up, you know. Islamists might decide to murder Westerners. The mullahs might even begin speculating about a world without America, a world in which Israel is wiped off the map.

……..Obama and the democrats which is why never in a million years are the present crowd in the GOP going to be allowed near the switch until they show signs of growing up.

No, I’m not joking and I have a first amendment to protect me.
What is protecting you from him?

“I’ve stated my views on that several times: Leftists insist on acting like a breed apart. So if we right-wingers ever take power again, that’s how we should treat them–a separate breed from the mainstream of America.”

……….and with the Republicans having the lowest id for thirty years what does that make them…..the majority I suppose

……..Don’t you think it’s possible, just possible, that someone in US or British intelligence has come up with this scenario……..I know they are not as imaginative or intelligent as you…..but they’ve got a few Ph’ds, they did manage to break the German and Japanese codes during the last war, so mightn’t there just be someone as clever as you?

The commentor has been watching too much science fiction. In the real world there are no futuristic devices to detect weapons, no necessity for cloaking devices, no transporters or phasers.

A dozen freighters would not be required. One for Israel and three for the US. The freighters would not be carrying “missiles.” Missiles need guidance systems. The freighters would have rockets, which have already been openly tested and bragged about by Iran.

It’s a matter of numbers. Given the amount of traffic in the sea lanes, ordinary freighters would be impossible to detect. These would not be military vessel types. How does the commentor imagine such detection would take place? No Navy in the world has the capacity to search each and every freighter outside the 50 mile limit. Apparently the commentor does not realize the number of vessels in the waters off the coasts of Israel and the US are myriad. Even with intel beforehand it would be like looking for a needle in a haystack.

At a designated time a small crew on each would slide back the cargo hatches. They could aim the rockets with a hand compass – it only has to go up at an angle in the direction of land without ever having to come down. It would not have to be precisely aimed at a target or tracked until ignition. 250 miles up and 100 miles inland the payload is ignited. Iran presently has a couple of tested rockets quite capable of doing the job. Our missile defense systems are incapable of stopping such an attack, being designed to intercept high-tech missiles launched from specific areas in an arc through the stratosphere.

Several states in the US and all of Israel would cease to have electricity, thereby dooming most within the sphere of the EMP. No police, no army, no vehicles, no food after a few days, no water except from rivers and streams, no computer, radio or TV. The situation would quickly revert to lawlessness. Your only hope would be to somehow walk out but you would probably be beaten back at the fringes of the effect. “Don’t come out of there and eat OUR food,” would be the attitude. The economies of Israel and the US would literally cease to exist. Imagine 9/11 magnified a million-fold.

It’s cheap, it’s easy, it’s as effective as a conventional nuclear weapon, perhaps more so. All it requires is some relatively low-tech electronics, rockets and the fissionable material – which may be the reason that Iran‘s emphasis is on centrifuges. The crappy, out-dated, second-hand missile guidance systems they are buying from Russia, which everyone understands will have perhaps insurmountable reliability problems, may be only a smoke-screen – a diversion from their true intent – a way to lull while preparing the EMP weapons.

Also, unlike a conventional ballistic missile attack, such a strike would be impossible to trace back to its origin. What I believe the mullahs want to do is start a nuke race, get more nations hostile to the West nuked up to give themselves cover. That way no one could be sure which nation made the strike. After all, the US would still have the nuclear subs, any one of which could reduce the Middle east to radioactive goat pastures for a 100 years afterward.

What is chilling to me is I keep asking myself what I would do if I were in their place and had their mindset. The scenario above is my troubling answer.