Earlier today, Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison formally announced that she is going to challenge current Texas Governor Rick Perry in the Republican primary this March. This means that Hutchison will likely vacate her Senate seat. It is a strange move. While Perry is the longest serving governor in Texas history (he succeeded then Governor George W. Bush, who left office to run for the Presidency) and many Texans are indeed tired of him, he will be extremely difficult to knock off in the Republican primary since he is extremely popular amongst hardcore Texas conservatives. This base will make up the majority of Republican primary voters. Furthermore, Hutchison’s decision to challenge Perry goes against the reported wishes of fellow Texas Senator John Cornyn, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Cornyn is concerned (and rightfully so) that Hutchison’s decision leaves what was a safe Republican Senate seat vulnerable to a Democratic challenge.
By stepping down, Hutchison ensures that there will be a special election for the seat on May 8th. Republicans will likely run David Dewhurst, who will be tough to beat. But the Democrats have two strong moderate (and extremely popular) candidates in Houston Mayor Bill White and former Texas Comptroller John Sharp. Both candidates have announced that they will run for the seat, but several sources close to the situation have speculated that ultimately, one of the two will step down and eventually run for governor. Whether or not this is true remains to be seen, however what Republicans can be sure of is that a seat that was quite safe in Hutchison’s hands will be up for grabs in May and for the first time in a long time, the Democrats will be in the race. Dewhurst will be the favorite, but Ms. Hutchison is not doing her state or her party any favors by running for the Texas governorship. The prize she seeks is a notoriously weak office and the seat she vacates is a Senate seat that Republicans can hardly afford to lose.
2 responses so far
1 blake.seitz // Aug 18, 2009 at 5:47 pm
As a Texan and a moderate, I had initially cheered Hutchinson’s enterance into the gubernatorial race. Now, as I consider the implications, I’m coming around to your way of thinking, Jeb.
Hutchinson might’ve bitten off more than she can chew with Rick Perry.
2 balconesfault // Aug 19, 2009 at 9:28 am
If Perry is the nominee in a general election, the Texas Governor seat might be in real danger. Particularly after the hard right tack that the primary battle looks to take. It’s important to remember that last gubernatorial election, Perry only drew 39% of the vote, and won because Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Rylander Strayhorn Etc each captured substantial numbers of moderate or independent votes. And Perry has made himself a lightning rod for mockery in recent months.
Personally, I think Hutchison is just tired of Washington – she’s 65, she adopted a couple kids in 2001 who I think she’ll want to spend more time in Texas with, she’s not a big ideological policy wonk who enjoys doing battle on the Hill. She’s naturally more moderate than one can be in the Republican Congressional Delegation without drawing a lot of attention to oneself as a “maverick” or “RINO”, and I don’t think she would enjoy either label. So being a Senator may just not be much fun for her now.
And remember that in Texas, it’s an open primary – so if the Dems don’t have competitive races going on – which certainly will be the case if the big guns divide up the Senate and Gov races – independents will vote in the Repub Primary, and a lot of Dems might even do so. Independents will almost certainly vote Hutchison … Dems will vote Hutchison if they want a more moderate conservative as Governor, and Perry if they want a chance for a Democratic Governor.
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