RSS Feed MenuA new poll conducted by McLaughlin and Associates slots Charlie Crist (33%) ahead of both Republican Marco Rubio (29%) and Democrat Kendrick Meek (15%). The poll though found that Crist is actually taking away more votes from the Democrat Meek (43% of self described liberals say they support Crist, while only 33% of liberals say they are supporting the Democratic candidate) than Rubio (56% of Republicans support Rubio, only 22% said they support Crist). Jim McLaughlin told the Orlando Sentinal that the poll’s numbers are not positive for Crist. For instance, he points out that Crist’s current support among African-Americans is at 36% (compared to Meek’s 45%) but McLaughlin predicted that Crist would be “lucky to get 10 percent of the African-American vote on election day”.
The dilemma that faces all independent candidates is that generally speaking, if the race is close, voters tend to head back to the major party candidates. Crist needs to hold on to at least some of his liberal support, however he also needs to do considerably better among Republicans if he is going to win. Running right, however, will compromise his support on the left. Crist may face a battle he simply can’t win. That’s certainly what McLaughlin thinks: ““I would make a pretty good bet he not only will not win, he will run an embarrassing third,’’ says McLaughlin. “I think he’s done politically.’’
TerryF98 // May 2, 2010 at 4:03 pm
Yep coming top in a poll is political death!!!
Oskar // May 2, 2010 at 4:09 pm
Terry, Thomas Dewey probably thought so!
ktward // May 2, 2010 at 4:58 pm
McLaughlin is a Republican polling firm. (Says so, right on their home page.)
That fact alone does not cast suspicion on their polling methods, but I think we can take McLaughlin’s personal editorial with a grain of partisan salt.
ottovbvs // May 2, 2010 at 5:10 pm
…..this commentary belongs with that “Great news for John McCain” meme that was running for much of the 08 election…………if the Democratic number is as weak as McLaughlin says it is then Crist is home and dry because Democrats will vote tactically……at this stage in the game it’s way too early to say how this plays out
Rubio Slams Crist Over Independent Senate Bid (Afternoon Update) // May 2, 2010 at 5:24 pm
[...] A Battle Crist Can't Win FrumForum – May 2nd – 15:57 [...]
aDude // May 2, 2010 at 5:43 pm
When Joe Lieberman ran as an independent in CT, Democrats treated the race very gingerly. While they gave lip service to Lamont, they didn’t demonize Lieberman. When he won, they welcomed him back to the Democratic caucus. While he hasn’t been a straight line player (HCR comes to mind, of course), he still votes with the party 80% of the time.
On the other hand, it sounds like the Republicans are going to have their bazookas out for Crist. If this race gets as nasty as I suspect it will be, whose side of the aisle will welcome him into the Senate? If he chooses to be an independent but caucus with the Democrats, then this will in effect be a Democratic pickup (since the seat is currently held by a Republican).
The smart thing to do would be to ignore Crist completely and run strictly on the issues. Let Crist define his differences. Then, if he wins, at least there won’t be a trail of hatred in the wake of the election, and he might caucus with the Republicans.
I just don’t see what is gained by making the election about Crist rather than, say, the long term deficit. Which, of course, is why the Republicans will make it all about Crist and push him into the waiting arms of Obama. Heavy sigh.
ktward // May 2, 2010 at 6:10 pm
…at least there won’t be a trail of hatred…
Too late for that. Sheesh, just here at lil’ ole FF, Alex Knepper tried to tear Crist a new one. The hate’s already out and spreading like the BP oil spill.
Assuming he’s elected, I’d like to see Crist caucus with Dems. A mix of pol viewpoints is a good thing. At present, I simply have no confidence in the GOP Hill crowd to be more effective post midterms when they have a larger minority. We’ll watch Scott Brown: perhaps he’ll pave the way for sober thought among the GOP again.
lizerdmonk // May 2, 2010 at 7:48 pm
One thing you guys are not considering is that most of the good ole boys in the State of Florida will turn on there own guy because his Hispanic and they really don’t want a spic in office just like they turned on Bob Martinez the former Governor of Florida so Charlie will end up taking that vote away and he Rubio has no chance with only the Cuban vote.
EdCoughlin // May 2, 2010 at 10:14 pm
This ignores a big trend in the Republican party, that many of the moderates in the party left over the insanity that has taken over in the last few years and become independents or even Democrats (so they could vote in the Hillary/Obama primary). Saying he has less Republican support in part means that since the party shrank a great deal (democrats have a sizable advantage in voter reg in Florida and it isn’t because Florida is a liberal state) those remaining are the more extreme elements.
Crist can win by splitting the middle and his comment today on meet the press was a good one. He said he would support the party that makes the best decisions for Florida instead of tacking left or right early on. He put forth both that the health care reform package should be changed and that we need to do more to regulate energy which makes it seem like he would be a good dealmaker that would do what David Frum advocated after the health care debacle where democrats ran the table in the end. He would stand up and negotiate and the overall package would be better as a result.
ottovbvs // May 3, 2010 at 8:30 am
ktward // May 2, 2010 at 6:10 pm
…at least there won’t be a trail of hatred…
“Too late for that.”
………Way too late……the Republicans are going to trash Crist from dawn to dusk…..the interesting point is when does he start to respond if he ever does with the “I didn’t leave the Republicans they left me” mantra
bamboozer // May 4, 2010 at 8:08 am
Joe Lieberfool did it, Crist can too. And Marco Rubio ain’t all that.
msmilack // May 5, 2010 at 3:28 pm
This is just my personal opinion but the reason I think Crist might win — aside from being very popular in Florida and appealing to both sides of the aisle — is that the supporters of Rubio (the Florida GOP) looks like a bunch of bullies and nobody likes bullies. Going after Crist as they are doing — Rubio’s new ads, the Club for Growth demanding back its money — is going to result in more votes for him from both sides of the aisle for that reason alone. It’s human nature to hate bullies and the GOP can’t help itself. They ARE bullies right now (to say nothing of the financial shenanigans). Crist has an opportunity to act like a good governor with the oil spill; he has made some tough decisions that were not partisan (to the contrary, they went against the GOP party-line); and people love an underdog. I think the GOP is whistling in the dark.